This Ain't Your Dad's Recession

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Fall in employment participation at post Great Depression high


U3 to U6

So, we have the numbers for September today, and they really suck.

The non-farm payrolls fell by 263,000 in September, well above the consensus estimate of 175,000, and the unemployment rate (U3) went from 9.7% to 9.8%.

Additionally, the numbers for factory orders fell in August, as did non defense capital goods, durable goods, and manufacturing inventories fell by for the 12^th straight month.

Unless you are a banker, or Obama's economic team, this is not a recovery.

Kevin Drum, citing Brad Delong and Andrew Samwick, note that workforce participation has fallen further than at any time since the Great Depression.

The numbers, peak to trough declines in workforce participation.

• 1948 — 2.2%
• 1953 — 3.1%
• 1958 — 2.5%
• 1960 — 1.4%
• 1969 — 1.9%
• 1974 — 2.4%
• 1979 — 3.0%
• 1990 — 2.0%
• 2000 — 2.7%
• 2008 — 4.6%

This is just really scary stuff, particularly when, like me, you are looking for a job.