Economics Update

Unemployment Rate Actual data vs. the Summers-Geithner Stress Test Assumptions
H/T Calculated Risk

The obvious lede is the various corporate measures of job cuts, with ADP Employer Services saying that there were 393K private-sector jobs cut, Challenger, Gray & Christmas saying that planned job cuts in June were 74,393, and the Monster Employment Index (PDF) moderating somewhat for June.

These are a bit better than May, but only in "the 2^nd derivative is improving" way.

Jobs are still being cut, when you need to job growth to match the growth of the work force.

In related "2^nd derivative" news, there is CNN trumpeting the fact that the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index rose for the 6th straight month:, while Bloomberg correctly notes that what this really means is that Manufacturing in U.S. Shrank at Slower Pace in June.

Falling less slowly is not improvement.

I am so sick of hack Panglossian journalists.

We also have mortgage applications falling to a 7 month low, which indicates that right now the housing market is in a death dance with economic recovery.

Any recovery will bump interest rates a few points, but that will kill any recovery in real estate......Catch 22.

If you want some good news, industrial sentiment rose in Japan, but it's a "2^nd derivative" thing too, with the index rising to minus 48 in June from minus 58 in March.

The only really good news, is that Calculated Risk's June Economic Summary in Graphs is out, so there is some good chart pr0n for the wonks.

In energy, we have US Diesel inventories up, along with both oil and gasoline falling on increasing inventories.

Finally, the dollar fell, though I can't tell if this is China's suggestion of an alternate reserve currency, or because all the "2^nd derivative" stuff make investors feel less of a need for a safe haven.