India Budgets $2.5 Billion for Manned Space Program

It appears that India is making a major push into manned space flight. (Paid subscription required)

Conceptual space capsule

They are looking at a first flight in the 2015 time frame with some significant collaboration with the Russians.

This to my mind is the least sensible way to spend money of space flight. They are already spending significant amounts on reconnaissance and imaging satellites, which meet actual needs, as opposed to perceived status in the world.

Yep, I Read the New Yorker for the Cartoons Too

Paul Krugman admits that he reads the cartoons first in the New Yorker, and cartoons like this is why.

Howard Dean for Vice President

What the Other Matt (Yglesias) said about people who supported the war, or more accurately about the idea that supporting the war somehow creates some foreign policy "street cred":

This reflects, I believe, an incredibly damaging mindset that's been crippling the Democratic Party for years and the prospect of excising this mindset is the single most appealing thing about the prospect of Obama being the nominee. Clinton's 'street cred' on national security consists, of course, of being massively wrong on the most important national security issue of her career. Paradoxically, a lot of folks find her massive wrongness on this hugely important issue reassuring because they and their friends were also wrong and they view having made the right call to be a suspicious quality. After all, the Iraq War may have led to thousands of U.S. deaths, tens of thousands of U.S. casualties, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi deaths, and millions of Iraqi refugees all at a cost of over $1 trillion and in ways that's damaged the strategic position of the United States, but war opponents were all a bunch of hippies.

I say good riddance to that. I got the war wrong, and I think that gives me less 'cred' than I would have had had I gotten the war right and I think that, politically speaking, it makes sense to put people forward who aren't tainted by the war. But most of all we need to ditch the mindset that says 'cred' on national security is composed of being hawkish even when that means being wrong.

To me, this means one thing: Howard Dean as Obama's running mate.

Your Government at Work

Yes, the US Department of Agriculture is taking cattle ranchers to court to prevent them from doing Mad Cow tests on beef intended for export.

A number of foreign customers, particularly the Japanese, are demanding this, but the Ag Department wants to prevent testing, because it might "confuse" consumers.

The real reason is that they are in big beef's pocket, and they are fairly sure that if testing were done, they would get some native home grown positives.

Stop Loss Orders in US Army Skyrocket

The "backdoor draft" is back up to 12,235. The number peaked in May of 2005, and bottomed out in May of 2007, but is headed back up.

Remember that these folks who now consider themselves burned by the military experience, and the army will be paying for this for a very long time, perhaps generations.

Iraq Plans to Go "Apocalypse Now" Out in Sadr City

They are ordering civilians to leave, and they are preparing tent cities in soccer stadiums. I think that they intend to go Fallujah on Sadr City, where somewhere around half the buildings were destroyed.

The problem is that neither the US military nor the Iraqi government can take care of the thousands of people who will be displaced by this.

Nouri al-Maliki must be desperate to get rid of the Sadrists before the provincial elections.

Guantanamo Duty Puts Kibosh on Pakistan Posting for General

The Pentagon assigned Major General Jay W. Hood as the senior military officer in Pakistan, where he would be crucial to fighting al Queida.

The problem was that because of his role as commandant at the Guantanamo gulag, the Pakistanis did not want him there.

When Bush leaves office, I think that there will be a slew of senior officers who will be told to retire because of their involvement in torture. They are simply too toxic to remain militarily useful.

Hood is just the tip of the iceberg.

Republicans Vote Against Mother's Day

This is not the Onion, it's the Washington Post, though, truth be told, the Onion probably does a better job of reporting.

Myanmar Seizes Aid Supplies from the UN

This is my first post on the subject, because I have very little to say. I am not a student of the region, and what can you say about a tragedy like the cyclone and its associates storm surge.

This story, where authorities in Myanmar seized aid supplies from the UN, puzzles me.

I am aware of the paranoia and xenophobia of the military dictatorship there, but I'm not clear why they would not allow in aid workers in a time like this.

Economics Update

We have another sign of recession, imports falling sharply in March, which indicates a decrease in consumer demand.

It also appears that the decisions by the Bank of England and ECB to target inflation may be putting an end to the brief dollar rally.

In energy, we have Oil settings new record, $126.20/bbl, and gas hitting a new record, $3.671/gal.

It should be noted that much of our trade deficit is oil, but the number dropped even with increasing oil prices. Things are slowing down a lot.

I would note that there are signs that the credit crunch is no spreading to insurance, with AIG posting a 1st quarter loss of $7.8 billion, and making plans to issue more stock to raise needed capital.

If the insurance industry goes balls up in any significant way, it's going to be effecting a lot more people.

Finally, we have housing inventories continuing to rise, 3.5% in April, and 6% year over year.

South Asian Missile Developments

India has tested a nuclear capable ballistic missile with a range in excess of 300km, which puts much of China firmly in range, and Pakistan test fired a nuclear capable cruise missile with a 350 km range.

While I understand the threat that al Queida in the region poses, the fact that we have two nuclear armed powers who might actually pull the trigger on each other seems to me to be far more pressing, particularly since it could not involve the Chinese.

Zimbabwe Elections Update

Any similarities between this and Bush v. Gore are not coincidental....Though the MDP has a lot more in the way of Cojones than do the Dems.

We now the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) saying that they doubt the official presidential election results, and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is talking about some sort of UN in the runoff elections.

In the parliamentary elections, we have protests on over half the seats, with the ZANU-PF and the MDC lodging 53 and 52 seats respectively.

In the what took you so long, the Zimbabwean opposition is calling for Mbeki's replacement as mediator. Seeing as how Thabo Mbeki has done everything in his power to support Mugabe, it is not surprising that he has no credibility left.

Unfortunately, it appears that the MDC will not participate in the runoff, at least that's their word for now, as they claim that Morgan Tsvangirai won outright.

He probably did, but a boycott won't help.



Journalists, lawyer arrested in Zimbabwe - CNN.com

Mortgage Bankers Don't Like House Plan

Which makes me more inclined to support.

It appears that they object to the idea that they will have to take a haircut to get FHA insurance, specifically that the FHA will not insure a loan unless the principal is reduced to 85% of a home's worth.

Boo f&%4ing hoo.

Maybe they can sue Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan for the difference.

McConnell Holds Out For All or Nothing FEC Vote

This is interesting. McConnell is still wants the FEC nominations voted on all at once, as opposed to individually, which effectively kills the new nominations by Bush.

Anyone have a clue as to what the heck is going on here? Why is Mitch McConnell dissing the White House and putting McCain in a bind over this?

As long as there are no new nominees, then David Mason stays head of the FEC, and he has been harshing on McCain something fierce, so there are two reasons that I he's doing this, he hates McCain, or that van Spakovsky has some sort of hold on him.

Blog Post of the Year

This is genius, c/o this modern world.

What an Amazing Accomplishment

It’s September 12, 2001. You’re sitting in front of a TV, watching footage of the World Trade Center collapse over and over and over again.

All of a sudden, someone from seven years in the future walks out of a tiny temporal vortex, and tells you: George W. Bush is going to fuck this up so badly that in 2008, the United States of America will likely elect as president a black man whose middle name is Hussein and whose father was Muslim. Oh, and he also admits he’s used cocaine.

I think it would have been easier to convince me of the reality of time travel. “No, no, I believe you really are from the future. But the other stuff, that’s CRAZY.”

Economics Update

Tanta of Calculated risk notes that continuing unemployment claims are now above 3 million. Note that, unlike the weekly new claim figures, this one tends to show trends much better.

You may recall that recently the weekly data is showing a decline, the fact that the numbers are still rising means that people are spending more time on unemployment.

Because of inflation concerns, both the Bank of England and ECB leave rates steady have decided not to follow the Fed's example and cut rates. Which has left the ECB rate at a 6 year high.

Normally, this would suggest a weaker dollar, but the dollar is doing pretty well against the Euro. No clue as to what is going on here.

Finally, another day, another record high in oil, $123.53/bbl at closing.

It's Called Journalism

John McCain's hometown paper, The Arizona Republic, has been covering John McCain longer than any other paper, and as a result they do some journalism, and reveal that McCain's as a maverick is not born out by his votes in the Senate, at least not the ones where his votes matters.

When the votes are close, he votes Republican....if he manages to show up at all.

Deal Between Bush and Senate May Be Close on FEC

It's being presented as a grand compromise, with separate votes allowed so that Hans von Spakovsky would be voted but, as Josh Marshall so ably notes, it's really another f&%# you from Bush and His Evil Minions^™ to the Senate.

The problem right now is that the FEC does not have a quorum, so it can make rulings, which means, among other things, McCain's bungee jumping into and out of the public financing system cannot be approved by the board.

Additionally, one of the remaining members of the board, FEC chairman David Mason has been very vocal about McCain's law breaking on the matter, which is an embarrassment.

Bush has renominated von Spakovsky, but is now saying that they can take a separate vote on the nominees, which Spakovsky, would lose, but he is now also submitting a replacement for Mason too, with the idea that once he is removed, McCain gets what he wants on a party line vote.

Fannie Mae is Doomed

Here's a little tidbit buried in a Washington Post story on Fannie's recent losses:

To help homeowners caught in the market crisis, Fannie Mae said it would take the unusual step of allowing borrowers whose homes are worth less than their mortgages to refinance up to 120 percent of the property value. That option would be offered to homeowners whose loans are owned by Fannie Mae and who remain up to date on their mortgage payments.

They have just condemned themselves to death.

They will be lending on houses already underwater, and the increase in walkaways as a result will have them needing a government bailout.

1000 Words: The Election and the Economy

Paul Krugman come across this picture:


This would indicate a Democratic blowout, neh?

My Son's IEP Meeting Tuesday

As I've mentioned before, my son has Aspergers syndrome, a condition on the Autism Spectrum^*, and for most of the past three years has been in a private placement, the Forbush School, a part of Shepard Pratt Health System as a result.

While this has helped him quite a bit in dealing with his problems, which are almost exclusively behavioral/social and not academic^†, but he's also very high functioning, an IQ of around 135.^‡

So while Forbush has been good for him in terms of a social experience, academically, even with the very small classes they have there, he has increasingly found the academics not sufficiently challenging.

The problem with Baltimore County Public schools has always been that we have been unable to get sufficient support, and so we lawyered up, and he got placed at Forbush.

While Baltimore County could have supplied the necessary services, for less money than the Forbush tuition, they simply wouldn't.

So, while we were all on the same page about wanting him to go back to the mainstream public school, we were concerned that he would be placed in Behavior Learning Support (BLS) class for kids with severe behavior problems, which would have him in a situation with older kids who are behind him academically, which would be the worst of all possible worlds.

So, this Tuesday, we had a meeting to get our ducks in a row for him going to Chatsworth, an area elementary school which is set up with the most special ed resources.

It was a four hour meeting, and we went through the 25 pages in his IEP. Two goals were dropped, because the staff from Chatsworth found them redundant, and there were some minor rewrites, but basically we now have a situation where he will get the support he needs

He will start at Chatsworth on Monday, and he's both nervous and psyched. He's already spent about 5 half-day and 2 full-day visits to Chatsworth and sat in all the classes hew will be in, basically the Gifted and Talented (G&T) program, which is good, as he started to complain about what he calls, "Boring stuff he already knows."


^*There is some dispute between the experts as to whether it is a mild form of Autism, or a separate condition that is on the spectrum. Me, I don't care, I just want to make sure that he has the services he needs.
^†He has a bit of a problem writing long essays, because he can't keep the idea in his head long enough to physically get it out onto paper. If he dictates, he's fine though.
^‡Just today, I was explaining how X-rays work, and discussing a brief primer on wavelength and frequency in the electromagnetic spectrum. We were at the Chiropractors, and they have an X-Ray machine there, and he was curious. He picked it all up in about 30 seconds. Like I've said before, scary smart.

Economics Update

The numbers are out for March pending home sales, and they are very grim, with the pending home sales index falling to it's lowest level since its founding in 2001, a 1% one month and 20% year over year drop. Of course the NAR is seeing a turnaround in the next few months, like they always do.

We are also seeing increasing signs of inflation, with Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig suggesting that inflation pressures may lead to rate hikes soon, and Toyota to raising prices on their cars, largely as a result of the falling dollar.

On the plus side, however, productivity increased by 2.2% in the first quarter, more than the 1.5% predicted, which should moderate inflation some.

On a more general, "we in a recession" note, retail imports fell 4.8% in March, yet another indicator of a slowdown, that the retailers are cutting back.

Oil hit another record today too.

Office of Special Counsel Raided by FBI

Details here, here, here, here, and here.

It appears that Scott Bloch was the target of the raid, which appears to be about obstruction of justice, at least that was what was on the subpoena.

Note that Bloch had his disk wiped to NSA standards some time back, and claimed that it was virus removal:

Jeff Phelps, who runs Washington's Geeks on Call franchise, declined to talk about specific clients, but said calls placed directly by government officials are unusual. He also said erasing a drive is an unusual virus treatment. "We don't do a seven-level wipe for a virus," he said.

He used the office for political advantage, and then covered it up.

Why he needed computer consultants to break the law is beyond me though.

In 1989, before it became horrific bloatware, Norton Utilities had this ability, and you could find a dozen or so similar utilities on the Google, but having a receipt like this pretty much slam

Bad Financial Journalism

I gotta call out Steven Weisman on his article saying that the dollar is showing signs of strengthening after a 6 year trend down. I

It's very basic. The dollar has been heading down for 6 years...It's been heading up for 2 weeks.

Please wait at least a few months before declaring the trend over? At this point it is likely still a dead cat bounce.<sup>*

*</sup>No cats were harmed in the preparation of this blog post.

US Balking at Poland Missile Shield Demands

Basically, it comes down to the Poles wanting money, billions of dollar, to upgrade their defense forces as a condition for hosting the missile base.

One wonders how much of this is plain old extortion, and how much is the Poles trying to avoid signing the deal while Bush is still in office.

In any case, Congress has voted $10 million to the Poles, and they want around $10 billion.

Schadenfreude, National Association of Home Builders Edition

About 3 months ago, I noted that the NAHB was putting a moratorium on political donations to punish Congress for inaction.

Well, it looks like they are back in the bribe campaign donation business again.

They are claiming that it is because they have a tax credit to lobby on, but in reality I think that it's because no one in Congress really cared that much.

The lesson to be learned is that members of Congress are less concerned about your donations to them than they about the potential of you donating to their opponent.

Bush Plans to Use Guantanamo Trials for November Election Failing

It appears that non only will they miss the election deadlines, but that the trials will not have started by the time that Bush leaves office either.

This affair is a complete cock-up. We already have the former prosecutor saying that administration officials were demanding convictions because an acquittal would be inconvenient, and , "and one high-ranking Pentagon officer has been quoted talking about the "strategic political value" of doing so before the November elections," so it looks like this mess will be dumped on whoever is sworn in in 2009, as Will Bunch notes.

Protecting the World from the Vast Voting Nun Conspiracy

Well, if that was the purpose of Indiana's restrictive voter ID policies, it appears that they have succeeded.

The nuns in question were turned away from the polling place.

Georgia-Russia War of Words Reaches Crescendo

There are now statements from representatives in the breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia that Russia will be taking over full control of military operations, and the Georgian foreign minister is claiming that they are near to war with Russia.

Again, let me say that much of this^* is a direct result of NATO's expansion eastward, in violation of agreements, which has fed Russia's long tradition of xenophobia and paranoia, and hence has led to these actions.

^*Though there is an aspect of Russia attempting to create a sphere of influence in the area too.

The Mongoose Gang* in the US

It appears that people under investigation in what appear to be politically motivated cases, and those who whistle blow on the same, are being systematically targeted with arson, break ins, and attempts to force their car from the road.

Cases in point:

• Governor Don Siegelman home was burglarized twice with nothing taken, "the only items of interest to the burglars were the files in Siegelman's home office."
• Siegelman's attorney experienced the same type of break-in at her office.
• Dana Jill Simpson, who went on 60 Minutes to allege that Siegelman was the target of a political prosecution had her home burned down, and her car forced off the road.
• In Muississipi, in a similar case, attorney Paul Minor, had his office broken into, Mississippi Supreme Court Justice, Oliver E. Diaz Jr., had his home burglarized, again with nothing taken except documents and a computer , and another defendant, John Whitfield, had his office was the target of arson.

I want my country back.

^*Mongoose Gang reference is here. I went on vacation to Grenada a number of times as a kid, and the name given to Eric Gairy's group of thugs and bully-boys used to enforce political intimidation always stuck in my head.

Barny Frank is Angry

After raising the limits for loans that purchased by Fannie and Freddie, which carry a lower interest rate, in February, Barney Frank is now looking into why so few of the new "non-jumbo jumbo" loans have been made.

The raising of the cap from $417,000 to $729,750 was intended to help property move in high cost markets, like Frank's district.

The simple reason that he is not seeing much in the way of these loans is because banks are not lending to anyone.

We are seeing an unprecedented tightening in mortgage lending standards, and so very few loans are being made.

Murtha Proposes Giving Army $20B to Cancel FCS

John Murtha, chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, has proposed an additional $20 billion to develop FCS^* technologies, while canceling the program.

Basically, he's looking at canceling the most ambitious aspects of the program, and the $20 billion would be used to redirect the program towards nearer term technology.

When I worked on the FCS^‡, it was an article of faith that the systems, at least the manned systems, would never be fielded in large numbers, but that the underlying technology would be a part of an upgrade to legacy systems, and it looks like Murtha is of the same mind.

There is a lot to admire in the way of technology, the article mentions the use of robots to investigate IEDs and advanced communications systems, for example, and the initial release of this technology could benefit the troops now, as opposed to the full up system, which may not benefit the troops ever.

^*Full disclosure, I worked on the Future Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle, FRMV, "wrecker" variant of the FCS-MGV^† from 2003-2006 at United Defense (later BAE Systems after the Carlyle Group sold me to buy Dunkin Donuts.
^†Future Combat Systems-Manned Ground Vehicle. These are the ones that are the tanks and APCs. As opposed to the various unnmanned vehicles, networking technologies, etc. that form the full FCS along with the MGVs.
^‡Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can't hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as "technical hit man", where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

Obama Wins NC, Clinton Wins IN

The expected results.

Sorry for the light posting today, my son had an IEP meeting today, and between that, and the fact that my I was playing Mr. Mom this evening, not much chance to get to the computer.

The Tanker Saga: Northrop Calls Boeing Incompetent

Northrop is now saying that Boeing lost largely because they cannot be trusted to deliver on time or on budget. From their press release:

....

Past Performance

A contractor's past performance on related projects is a critical element in the Air Force's assessment of competing proposals. Because replacing America's fleet of aerial refueling tankers is the number one acquisition priority for the Air Force, it paid special attention to Boeing's assertions that it could complete the contract on time and on budget. While Boeing likes to claim that it has a better track record than Northrop Grumman in building tankers, the Air Force determined that Boeing's past record actually meant it was riskier to do business with Boeing than Northrop Grumman.

According to an Air Force document assessing the two bids, in program management " ... There was a notable difference between the two offerors. Northrop Grumman received a rating of 'Satisfactory Confidence,' while Boeing received a rating of 'Little Confidence.'"

A rating of little confidence means the Air Force concluded that "Based on the offeror's performance record, substantial doubt exists the offeror will successfully perform the required effort." The reasons for the Air Force's poor rating of Boeing were redacted for business competition reasons.

The Air Force stated that Northrop Grumman received a superior rating because of its "Excellent and satisfactory (risk) ratings on six (other) contracts." The Air Force document concluded "The higher confidence rating for Northrop Grumman ... was a discriminator" because "This difference in the program management provides better overall confidence. Northrop Grumman (was) more advantageous."

It is worth noting that while Northrop Grumman has built, flown and tested a prototype aircraft and conducted a successful fuel transfer through its boom, Boeing has not yet built, flown or tested its proposed new design KC-767 aircraft. In addition, Boeing has been late in delivering tankers to Italy and Japan. These aircraft are significantly different from the design proposed to the Air Force.

...

If this was said in a bar, fists, and possibly beer bottles would fly.

Economics Update

People are now shocked that Fannie Mae has posted a $2.51 billion loss and cut its dividend. Do I need to quote Claude Raines in Casablanca?

Oil set another new record, $122.73, before settling at $121.84. Any bets on when we hit $130 for the first time?

Finally, we have this tidbit from the Wall Street Journal

And in a more-worrisome trend, borrowing from these retirement plans is surging. At the end of last year, 18% of workers had loans outstanding from their plans, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey of 2,011 full-time employees released in February by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Aegon NV's Transamerica Life Insurance Co. With home prices falling nationwide, the loans may be a sign that cash-strapped consumers are raiding their nest eggs to stay afloat, no longer able to tap their houses for cash and up against their credit-card limits.

This is a foreseeable consequence of defined contribution plans, and notwithstanding the Randroid utopian claims, it has always been the problem with having people make a bet in which, if they die young, they win.

It's the YOYO (You're On You're Own) society.

Fannie and Freddie at Risk

With all the hooplah over Congressional action to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make more and larger loans, the financial press is just starting to notice that maybe it will mean larger, and perhaps a quicker problems for the GSEs.

I said this when they originally expanded their services to some "Jumbo" mortgages that this was ill advised, and with them controlling about 80% of the mortgage loans bought by investors, this is going to get ugly.

Primary Day

No predictions, but the conventional wisdom is that Obama wins NC, and Clinton Indiana.

If the conventional wisdom is wrong, things either get really quiet (Obama sweeps), or even louder (Clinton sweeps).

This is Not a Bug, This is a Feature

One of the consequences of the bellicose and incompetent foreign policy put forth by Bush and His Evil Minions^™ is the increasingly paranoid and militaristic foreign policy of Russia.

Perhaps the most extreme example is the return of missiles and tanks to the May Day (Victory Day) parade.

I have concluded that this is not a result of incompetence on the part of Republicans. This is actually one of their goals, because by restarting the cold war, they can create a climate that benefits themselves politically.

Iran to US: Drop Dead

Let's see, we add another carrier to the gulf to threaten Iran, call them the "Axis of Evil", accuse them of supporting the Mahdi army and fomenting civil war in Iraq, and we should be surprised that when we suggest negotiations about how to make Iraq a safer place for Americans that they tell us to go Cheney ourselves.

It will take a generation to undo the damage done by Bush and His Evil Minions^&trade.

Borzou Daragahi and Raheem Salman are F&^%ing Morons

And so are the US diplomats that they interviewed, because they find it somehow culturally alien that an envelope of cash won't make everything better with regards to the Blackwater massacre in Baghdad.

As Spencer Ackerman so eloquently states:

If an unaccountable band of politically-connected soldiers-of-fortune shot my mother as she was trying to flee from a traffic circle, and the State Department offered me $5,000 in order to make the incident go away, I would not only be angry, I would be exploring my options for revenge. You don’t have to be an Iraqi to understand this.

If this happened in America, you would have family members demanding the death penalty

$5000 and a meaningless apology does not mean anything them, and it does not mean anything to us.

We are treating them like easily bought off sub humans, and they have legitimate cause to take exception.

The problem is that some of the soldiers in Iraq will die for what the mercenaries did in Iraq.

Another Day, Another DoD Contract Protest

This time, it's Lockheed Martin formally protesting the BAMS UAV award by the navy.

I predicted a challenge, but that does not require Kreskin. The stakes of these contracts are high enough, and the costs of challenges are low enough, that challenges will be pressed even when there is no merit, on the off chance that something will turn up.

Bolivian Autonomy Vote Predicted to Pass

There has been some disorder, but voting proceeded relatively smoothly.

Of course, there is the whole matter of the vote being delayed by the Bolivian electoral commission, so we will see what that means.

While some of the portions of the referendum seem to be fairly standard, at least bu US standards, others, such as the right to control federal land and to sign treaties seem to me to be more of an attempt to dismantle the Bolivian state for the benefit of Exxon-Mobil than anything else.

Most of the rest of Latin America is observing this with undisguised horror, because if this sticks, it lays the groundwork for the dissolution of the existing states.

But American bankers should get some good deals out of all this chaos.

Bank of America Purchase of Countrywide Going Pear Shaped

Well, I've been predicting for some time that the BoA Contrywide deal would go south, and now we have the analysts suggesting that BoA may cut the price, and suggestions that they should drop the deal entirely.

It appears that my predictive powers are getting less sucky.

Looks Like Murdoch Won't Get Newsday

Sam Zell bought Tribune company, and then couldn't handle the debt, so he's looking at selling Newsday, arguably one of the crown jewels of the empire.

A bidding war has erupted, with Rupert Murdoch (NY Post) and Mort Zuckerman (NY Daily News) fighting it out, but now it appears taht cablevision has trumped them both, bidding $650 million as vs. the roughly $580M of Murdoch and Zuckerman.

Newsday has generally had a good reputation for covering its region (Long Island), and it not becoming a part of Murdoch's Newscorp is a good thing.

Economics Update

Gee, Alan "bubbles" Greenspan is now saying that we are having an, "awfully pale recession." Well, I guess he can still afford to eat at the Four Seasons, so it's someone else's problem...Neh?

Actually, I'm surprised that he did not use the unexpected growth in the service sector, with the ISM numbers rising to 52 from 49.6 (50 indicates growth).

His goal has always been more to prevent government intervention than giving an accurate assessment anyway, because he believes that preventing government action is the only thing that he can do of value.

Of course, the fact that oil busted the $120 barrier, hitting $120.21/bbl doesn't bode well for the economy anyway.

Oil is up on supply fears from potential attacks in Nigeria and Kurdistan, along with the dollar weakening because of the Fed rate cuts.

Interest rates in the private sector, however, appear to be on the way up, with 30-year mortgages rates rising despite the Fed rate cuts. Additionally, the Fed is reporting that banks are tightening up on their lending at a historically high rate.

The fact that consumer bankruptcies are up almost 48% year over year in April might have something to do with this, or perhaps the other way around. It's a chicken egg thing to me.

However, the fact that S&P has decided to stop rating bonds backed up by second mortgages seems to indicate that this still has a way to go on the way down.

The fact that companies cannot refi right now may very well take down ResCap, the 8th largest mortgage lender wing of GMAC:

ResCap, the eighth-largest U.S. residential lender in 2007, today began offering as little as 80 cents on the dollar to exchange or buy back $14 billion of bonds to extend maturities and stave off bankruptcy. To finance the debt restructuring, ResCap is seeking a new $3.5 billion credit line from its parent GMAC, which is owned by General Motors Corp. and an investor group led by Cerberus Capital Management LP.

"There is a significant risk that we will not be able to meet our debt service obligations, be unable to meet certain financial covenants in our credit facilities, and be in a negative liquidity position in June 2008," Minneapolis-based ResCap said in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission today.

With all this going on, it's not surprising that UBS is looking at cutting 8000 jobs.

It Looks Like It's Happening With Cars Too

The down payment for cars has decreased, which means that people have less skin in the game, and so defaults on car loans are rising.

Between home, car, and college loans, I think that we may very see walk-aways skyrocketing through society.

Mercs to Train Iraqis

Yep, just what we need, commanders in Iraq assigning mercenaries to train Iraqi troops.

This has disaster written all over it.

Americans Expect $5.00 Gas

According to a CNN/Opinion Research:

• 94% Expect $4/gal this year
• 78% Expect to see $5/gal this year

I would note that we are already seeing 4 buck a gallon dino juice in Hawaii and California.

A-330 MRTT Tanker Grounded for Modifications

Needless to say, the Boeing rent-a-crowd is probably all over this, but really, this grounding is a normal part of a test program. (Paid Subscription Required)

Basically, they are installing updated plumbing, and setting up a remote station for the boom operator in the cockpit.

Earlier tests have been about verifying the airworthiness of the boom, which it passed in flying colors, with testing of the boom in use being done on a smaller A310 testbed.

The MRTT is almost identical to the KC-45 selected by the USAF.

Iraq, with an Iran Provocation Extra

4 Marines died today, and Hiro Ibrahim Ahmed, the wife of President Jalal Talabani was the target of an assassination attempt, a roadside bomb targeting her as she went to cultural festival.

Note that this was in Baghdad, not Kurdistan.

I would also point to this story describing a pretty massive buildup at the Al Kut air base, which is just 35 miles from the Iranian border.

I can't see this as anything but a deliberate provocation, or a prelude to an attack on Iran.

I think that Bush may attack Iran out of a petulant need to leave something else on his successor's plate.

Zimbabwe: Opposition May Participate in Runoff

At least they have not ruled it out, though they are calling for a foreign verification of the vote first.

Additionally, MDC is suggesting that some sort of power sharing may be possible witn ZANU-PF, but not with Robert Mugabe.

This is a sensible position. Mugabe appears to be viewed as a lame duck by even his allies, and this might be a way to ease him out.

The core of the matter is that considering the dire straights the country is in, whoever is president will have very limited options in policy, and the same applies to whoever leads the parliament, so "anyone but Mugabe" is not an unreasonable position.

Pakistan: Musharraf may accept judges restoration

But he is demanding that it be done by amending constitution.

The calculus is simple. If the judges get reinstated, they can rule his candidacy illegal, so he's throwing up a road block, where the opposition needs to pick up a couple of votes to pass it.

My point here is the same as always. This lack of stability in a nuclear state is very troubling.

Looks Like Large Home Builders Won't Get Their Way

In the home mortgage packages, one of the things that the lareg home builders have been lobbying for is a tax change to allow them to carry operating losses forward to profitable years, but it increasingly looks like this will not be a part of any mortgage bill.

There are a number of reasons, the first of which was that the Senate version of the bill has been lambasted by everyone as a bailout for builders and mortgage lenders, and the second is that the threat by homebuilders to cut off political donations overplayed their hand.

Basically, because of the level of pay for play in this action, it made standing up to the homebuilders a political win, because it shows "character".

When Will the US's Creditors Start Calling the Shots

Look at this commentary on Bloomberg. It's noting that increasingly, Asian investors in the United States are demanding higher interest rates.

Central banks are starting to make noises about moving their capital elsewhere, at least via proxy, and if that becomes a movement, it then becomes a stampede, and the dollar drops precipitously.

Senate Bill Drops C-17s, Funds F-22s (Sort Of)

The Senate Armed Services Committee has passed a Defense Authorization bill which funds 20 additional F-22s, but does not fund additional C-17s. (more details at link)

Half way there. We don't need either, though the F-22 funding also includes $497M for shutting down the F-22 line too.

The idea is to leave both options open to the next president.

Hopefully, the next president will have the guts to kill the white elephant that is the F-22.

Yes, There Are Similarities. Corruption is as Corruption Does

Senator Whitehouse (D-RI) is noting that the firing of Mary Gade as regional administrator of region 5 for her attempts to keep dioxin out of the environment resembles the US attorney scandal.

Of course. When one believes that government is an unmitigated evil, as movement conservatives do, the only role for government agencies is to do favors for friends and allies.

Dow is a friend, poor children who you put at risk for cancer are not.

Democrat Cazayoux Wins in LA-6

The Associated Press: Democrat Cazayoux wins congressional seat in Louisiana

First Dem to take the seat in 30 years.

The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class

Very good, but it's about an hour long, so have the time to be really depressed.

In listening to the changes, I can only conclude that this is a direct result of avarice, stupidity, and malice by the leaders in the US in the political and business spheres.

The unspoken meme of the Reagan revolution was that if you were not rich, it was because you are evil, and thus the not rich must be punished.

Iraq as Evidence of Basic Doctrinal Failings of the US Military

So, we had an incident in the past couple of days in Sadr City, according to the western press, at least the New York Times, we had:

The ugly daily fight for ground in the poor Shiite neighborhood of Sadr City unfolded Saturday at a small mosque next door to a hospital, damaging the hospital and a number of its ambulances, and near a group of children who were wounded as they gathered tin cans to sell for salvage.

So, according to US military reports, dutifully reported by the Times, we have bombed a Mosque and damaged a hospital in the process, and that's the best spin that they can put on this.

Compare this to the foreign coverage, though:

Twenty patients and workers in al-Sadr Hospital were wounded and 49 civilian and ambulance vehicles were damaged when U.S. warplanes opened fire at the hospital on Saturday, a health official said.

Even with the best possible spin, we have an atrocity (whether it's a violation of the law of war is another matter). We bombed a mosque, a house of worship, and we did so with so many, or such large, munitions that we damaged the hospital next door, and somehow this will lead us to win this war?



Since WWII, the US military has had a fetish about applying air power to win wars.

• The attempts by strategic bombing to destroy the German and Japanese war industries failed.
• Air power in Viet Nam did not achieve its goals, and in fact aided recruiting among the DC and squelched dissent against the North Vietnamese government.
• In desert storm, we discovered that numbers of tanks destroyed through air power were overstated.
• Air power was unsuccessful in eliminating Serbian armor in the Kosovo campaign.

And now, in the campaign in Iraq, we are again relying on air power in ways that will, in the long run, cost more American lives, by moving the populace to supporting our opponents.

Guam

Just noticed that hey were having a caucus.

Obama wins by 7 votes out of about 4500, which gfives a 2-2 delegate split.

7 votes....your vote does matter.

Rumors of Another 787 Delay

This is really getting ugly. They are talking about another nine month delay on the 787.

Boeing is denying this, but my money is on the rumor.

Well, Now I Know Why My Family is Insane...

Because I'm completely nuts, that's why.

It appears that my kids were overly rambunctious, and they decided that they must be some sort of evil robots, and started talking like the Daleks of Dr. Who fame.

I was downstairs for this bit, but when I came upstairs, and my wife was speaking to the kids like a Dalek, saying, "Destroy, destroy, destroy!!!"

I told her that it was completely wrong, that they didn't say "Destroy", they say "Exterminate," and then I put my arm in front of my face to resemble the Dalek protrusion, and said:

Exterminate!!
Exterminate!!
Exterminate!!
....
Oh damn!!!! Stairs....Must exterminate architectural barriers.
Contact Congress!!
Legislate!!
Legislate!!
Legislate!!

I guess you had to be there.

George F. Will Is an Idiot

Will, writing on Obama's proposal to lift the earnings cap on wages, talks about the middle class folk who will be hurt, and gives the following example:

You favor eliminating the cap on earnings subject to the 12.4 percent Social Security tax, which now covers only the first $102,000. A Chicago police officer married to a Chicago public-school teacher, each with 20 years on the job, have a household income of $147,501, so you would take another $5,642 from them. Are they undertaxed? Are they rich?

Dude, the $102K limit is per individual. Their tax load does not change, they are both taxed on their total earnings.

Truth be told, I don't think that there is a problem with Social Security, but there is one with Medicare, so here is my suggestion about how to fix that:

• End the cap on employers' part of the Social Security tax, and devote the additional revenue to Medicare and Medicaid.
• Broaden the definition of earnings to include things like the sweetheart deals that senior executives get.
• Tax the employee's part of income at levels above $1 million.
• This would mean that there is a "notch" between $102K and $1M. You can call it the Paris Hilton tax.

It would go a long way toward fixing the problem, and it is a much easier political sell.

Social Security Ain't the Problem

H/t Brad DeLong for the pic:


No crisis in Social Security, though there is one in healthcare.

Newest Grant Theft Auto Slams Right Wing

Well, now we know why younger Americans are trending against the Republicans.

Cases in point in GTA IV:

• A hack news organization, Weasel News...Perhaps representing some other mammal named "fair and balanced" news channel?
• Bridges closed to the city center (Manhattan) for "unspecified" security threats.
• A Limbaugh clone who is poorly depicted, “You listeners make the show. All I do is make the money and spend it on face fulls of pharmaceuticals that make me go deaf.”

The vast left wing conspiracy seems to be doing its job.

Dalai Lama Representatives Going to China

They will holding talks with the Chinese.

Note that talks have been held before, with no positive results.

I'm shocked. It's the first time I've seen some good come from the Olympics.

For Europe’s Middle-Class, Stagnant Wages Stunt Lifestyle - New York Times

The New York times has an article about how the European middle class is seeing its wages stagnate and the standard of living plateau or decrease.

They don't bother to give a reason, but strongly imply that it's Europe's stultified economy, as opposed to those dynamic Anglo-Saxon ones, even though one of the examples given is in the UK.

That's the standard line, too much regulation causes wages to stagnate.

But if one looks at Europe, and the US, median wages have stagnated because of deregulation.

Simply put, when an executive gets over a billion dollars in remuneration, this is money that does not go toward other people's wages and benefits, and deregulation and reductions in marginal tax rates increase wage disparities.

This is not happening because Reaganomimics has not been adopted at some level, this is happening it has been adopted at some level.

Bank of America May not Honor Country Debt Upon Purchase

BoA has announced in a regulatory filing with the SEC that, "hasn’t decided whether to guarantee Countrywide debt after BofA’s $4 billion takeover of Countrywide, which is supposed to be completed in the 2nd half of the year.

Basically, once it's bought, if the corporate structure is right, Countrywide could declare bankruptcy and leave the bond holders with nothing, which would mean that it would not BoA's problem.

Alternatively, BoA could be attempting to spook the bond holders so that they sell to BoA at a discount.

This system of corporations and shell companies is completely out of control.

I'm just saying.

Cool Helicopter Concepts at American Helicopter Society Forum in Montreal

Seriously neat concepts:

The Curious Case of the Corrupted Campaign Clip

Well, it now appears that the clip showing Mickey Kantor using the term "White N***er" is a fabrication.

It appears that Youtube clip was fabricated using footage from the 1993 documentary The War Room, or so the sources around the net say.

The editor of the clip claims that did not alter, but he did "enhance" the sound.

The interesting thing is not that someone, either as a deliberate deception or because they wanted to hear that, made a bogus clip. What is of concern is that it became the screaming point of the blogosphere.

Please, chill out.

Well, Now We Know What You Have to Do to Get Fired by Bush and His Evil Minions™

Do your job competently and zealously.

Mary Gade, regional administrator of U.S. EPA Region 5, was fired for trying to keep dioxin out of the environment in the Midwest.

Dow is more important to Bush and His Evil Minions^™ than children dying of cancer, I guess.

Scheduled Posts

I'm using the beta version of blogger to post now, which has "Scheduled post publishing", which allows one to post to a future date, and it will hold the post until that time.

I'll use it for Saturday posts. Frequently, I wonder if it makes sense to post something non time critical on a high news day, and this way, I can just send it over to Saturday, when I do not post.

For example, I physically posted this on Friday at...6:11 pm.

Yep, I Worked Here Too

It looks like BAE Systems may have been lax with its oversight of classified materials on the JSF program.

Of more concern appears to be that the Defense Security Service, which is supposed to supervise defense contractors, did not do it's job well.

In fact it barely did its job at all.

House Financial Services Committee Passes Mortgage Bill

It's better than the Senate version, but still favors the lenders and homebuilders too much.

Thankfully, they were able to prevent the Republicans from adding amendments to make it even worse.

I Disagree With Paul Krugman

In his latest post, he thinks that Barack Obama gave too much credit to the Republicans in his Fox interview.

I agree with him on that. The ideas in question have been floating around in academic circles, and have been proposed by politicians on both sides for years.

What I disagree with is his classification of emissions trading as a successful policy.

Emissions trading is not a success relative to a tax of some sort.

They've never been shown to be more effective than a tax on emissions, they reduce revenues available to government, and they are more difficult to administer, which increases the regulatory load, and hence costs to taxpayers.

Additionally, if you think that mortgage backed securities are a morass of corrupt arbitrage, just wait until Wall Street gets its hands on actual dirt.

Carbon trading is a solution, it's just a bad one.

Pakistani Judges Reinstated

This is a major step, because reinstating the judges fired by Musharraf required a supermajority.

One wonders if the Supreme Court there will now rule on the legality of his election as president of Pakistan.

Sami al Hajj Released from Guantanamo

He's a cameraman for al Jazeera, and he was held for 5 years without charge.

The government claimed, "a significant amount of evidence, both unclassified and classified, which supports continued detention of Sami al Hajj by U.S. forces."

If that were true, why would he be released now.

Disgraceful.

Fed, OTCS, and NCUA Moving to Regulate Credit Cards

Seeing how it's Bush and His Evil Minions^™, my question is why they would move against practices they call "deceptive and unfair".

Deceptive and unfair is what Bush and His Evil Minions^™ do.

My guess is that there are moves to restrict this in congress, and that this is primarily a way to get in front of these.

Senate Intelligence Committee Moves to Ban Torture by CIA Contractors

That's the effect anyway, the actual bill would prohibit contractors from participating in CIA interrogations.

The bill would also require the CIA to follow Pentagon rules and to disclose all detainees to the Red Cross.

Needless to say, Bush will veto.

Labour Gets Pummeled in Local Elections in the UK

Brown and Labor actually got fewer votes than the Lib-Dems.

The aftermath of Tony Blair, selfish triangulating politics, which will have a similar effect on Labor that Bill Clinton did on the Dems 1n 1994.

I'd like to see the Lib Dems hold their 2nd place position, or even hit 1st place for the parliamentary elections, but I put their chances at slim and none, as they have been unable to capitalize on the fact that they are the only major party to call for an immediate pullout from Iraq.

They are the sad sacks of UK politics.

Bank of England Governor Blasts Pay and Benefits in Financial Industry

We've been hearing more and more about how the bonuses for short term profits encouraged leverage and risky investments, and now BOE governor Mervyn King has joined the fray:

Mervyn King yesterday laid the blame for the credit crunch squarely at the door of commercial banks, criticising their excessive pay packages and risky lending.

The Bank of England governor also told the Treasury select committee he was unhappy that excessive pay in the City attracted too many young people away from careers elsewhere.

Speaking as data emerged showing that the credit crunch had hit retail sales, consumer confidence and mortgage lending hard, King said he hoped the banks would learn the lessons from the crisis and rein in their pay structures and be more responsible in their lending.

"Banks have come to realise in the recent crisis that they are paying the price for having designed compensation packages which provide incentives that are not, in the long run, in the interests of the banks themselves, and I would like to think that would change," King said.

Of course, Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan would argue that the pay schemes were innovation, and a good thing.

I am so glad to see him alive to see his reputation melt away like that of the wicked witch of the west in the Wizard of Oz.

NH Senate: Jeanne Shaheen Over Senator John Sununu by 8

According to Rasmussen.

Economics Update

Well, we just got a jobs report that shows just how screwed up our statistics have gotten, with non farm jobs falling by 20,000 but the unemployment rate went down, which just does not work.

Additionally, the so called birgh death corrections are completely bogus:
+45k construction jobs v 37k April 2007
+8k jobs were added in financial activities versus 1k last April.
+72k in professional/business services versus 48k last April.
+83k in leisure/hospitality (95k last April).

The idea that construction and financial added 53,000 jobs in April comes from somewhere west of the planet Skaro.

The financial press is uncritically applauding, of course.

In energy, oil is upto over $116 for the first time in a few days, but gasoline is down, not hitting a new record for the first time in 17 days.

Meanwhile, the Fed and other central banks are pouring yet more money into the frozen financial system. The Fed is allowing more types of bonds in its trash for cash auctions, but it does not appear to help. The LIBOR, from which much of the adjustable rate loan rates are derived has been largely unmoved.

It's pushing on a string, as I've said before, because it's a solvency crisis, not a liquidity crisis, as I've also said before.

The is still strengthening a bit, but I'm a bear long term, but I'm a bear on everything.

In more pushing on a string news, the US treasury is offering 0% on its inflation protected savings bonds.

A small distinction, mypost of 4 March had was about TIPS, not inflation protected savings bonds, just in case you are wondering if I'm repeating stuff.

Finally, in real estate, 63% of home sales in San Diego are short sales and REOs, which means that either the owner has sold for less than they owe, or it's been foreclosed on.

Zimbabwe, the Votes are Finally Officially Counted

And to no one's surprise, they are saying that there has to be a runoff between Tsvangirai and Mugabe.

No surprise here. The amount of vote fraud for Mugabe to win was simply not possible, but the amount to take it to a runoff, not so much a problem. 47.9% Tsvangirai, 43.2% Mugabe.

The opposition is saying, with decent justification, that they won outright, and are threatening not to participate in the runoff, which would give Mugabe exactly what he wants.

I would note that while Mugabe is promising to respect the results of a runoff, the fact is that a fair election and a fair campaign are simply not possible while Mugabe and ZANU-PF continue their campaign of terror and intimidation against the MDC.


UN voices reluctance to act on Zimbabwe - International Herald Tribune

And in the same old, same old category, South Africa is the major stumbling block to the security council doing anything.

I expect this to continue until Thabo Mbeki leaves office. He's a bigger cheerleader for Mugabe than GW Bush was for the Yale Baseball team.

Ignorance Spreads Measles

That's the hed on the article in the The Washington Independent, and it's a good three word synopsis of the superstition and hysteria that is the anti-vaccination movement.

See my earlier posts on the subject here, here, here, and here.

Georgia on My Mind

Nope, we're not talking about the southern state, but the birthplace of Josef Stalin.

We are having problems. It appears that NATO is warning Russia not to interfere in Georgia, and Russia is warning NATO not to interfere in Georgia.

Fundamentally, this is an outgrowth of NATO's disastrous policy of expansion, which was driven by post Berlin Wall euphoria and the lobbying of the various national defense industries, who saw a move to NATO as being a way to sell some expensive toys to the former Warsaw Pact nations.

Before the fall of the USSR, one of the conditions that Russia placed on the reunification of Germany was that NATO expand no further eastward. The fact that it has, and that the countries added no use for NATO but as a sword against Russia, contributes to the current bellicose and paranoid nature of Russian foreign relations.

Russian Gets New Build Tu-160

I believe that this was made from parts manufactured at or around the end of the USSR, but this does represent a serious dedication towards Russia rearming.

Basically, think B-1, only faster (Mach 1.05 or so down on the deck) and bigger.

Airbus Finally Powers Up "Wave 2" A380

This is the one with the wiring that does not massive hand rewiring to work, which is what caused the delay in the deliveries of the super jumbo.

About bloody time.

The FDIC is Proposing a Home Loan Program Run Directly by the Treasury

It's called the Home Ownership Preservation Loan program.

Looking at the program, I think that it is directed primarily at the people who should have known better, mortgage lenders and home builders, with benefits "trickling down" to ordinary programs.

So once again, we see socialism for the fat cats, and capitalism for the tax payers.

As Tanta of CR notes, this would be at little cost to the government, at least if the borrower does not walk away from the home, and there are incentives to prevent that, but the lender (more accurately the holder of the loan) may not be willing to make the concessions to qualify.

If the borrower is at low risk of default, why should the lender take a haircut, if it they are at high risk, do they want to be at the behind the US Treasury in line?

Tants's take, and mine, is that it's PR more than a serious program.

The FDIC proposal from their web page:

Home Ownership Preservation Loans

The FDIC is proposing that Congress authorize the Treasury Department to make loans to borrowers with unaffordable mortgages to pay down up to 20 percent of their principal. The repayment and financing costs for these Home Ownership Preservation (HOP) loans would be borne by mortgage investors and borrowers. This approach is scaleable, administratively simple, and will avoid unnecessary foreclosures to help stabilize mortgage and housing prices.

This proposal is designed to result in no cost to the government:

• Borrowers must repay their restructured mortgage and the HOP loan.
• To enter the program, mortgage investors pay Treasury's financing costs and agree to concessions on the underlying mortgage to achieve an affordable payment.
• Treasury would have a super-priority interest -- superior to mortgage investors' interest -- to guarantee repayment. If the borrower defaulted, refinanced or sold the property, Treasury would have a priority recovery for the amount of its loan from any proceeds.
• The government has no continued obligation and the loans are repaid in full.

Mortgage Restructuring:

• Eligible, unaffordable mortgages would be paid down by up to 20 percent and restructured into fully-amortized, fixed rate loans for the balance of the original loan term at the lower balance. New interest rate capped at Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate.
• Restructured mortgages cannot exceed a debt-to-income ratio for all housing-related expenses greater than 35 percent of the borrower's verified current gross income ('front-end DTI'). Prepayment penalties, deferred interest, or negative amortization are barred.
• Mortgage investors would pay the first five years of interest due to Treasury on the HOP loans when they enter the program. After 5 years, borrowers would begin repaying the HOP loan at fixed Treasury rates.
• Servicers would agree to periodic special audits by a federal banking agency.

Process:

• Mortgage investors would apply to Treasury for funds and would be responsible for complying with the terms for the HOP loans, restructuring mortgages, and subordinating their interest to Treasury.
• Administratively simple. Eligibility is determined by origination documentation and restructuring is based on verified current income and restructured mortgage payments.

Funding:

• * A Treasury public debt offering of $50 billion would be sufficient to fund modifications of approximately 1 million loans that were "unsustainable at origination." Principal and interest costs are fully repaid.

Eligible Mortgages:

Applies only to mortgages for owner-occupied residences that are:

1. Unaffordable – defined by front-end DTIs exceeding 40 percent at origination.
2. Below the FHA conforming loan limit.
3. Originated between January 1, 2003 and June 30, 2007.

Switzerland Fighter Competition

Basically, the Swiss have been operating F-5E/Fs in 1976, and they are looking towards replacing them.

In the competition were Boeing (F/A-18E/F), Eurofighter (Typhoon), Dassault (Rafale), and my favorite SAAB (Gripen).

Boeing has now pulled out of the competition, even though they would appear to have a leg up, as the Swiss already operate the F/A-18C/D. The official word was that their withdrawal was based on "Thorough review of Switzerland's requirements for partial replacement of its Tiger fighter aircraft," which I tend to agree with.

The F/A-18 is about two sizes larger than the F-5, and would require modifications to the facilities to accommodate their size.^*

My guess would be that SAAB is at an advantage in this competition:

• Range is not an issue, Switzerland is a small country.
• It is far less expensive than any of the alternatives, being around 1/3 that of the Rafale and Typhoon.
  
• It's short field characteristics are probably the best, being designed, according to Swedish doctrine, to operate from stretches of roads.
• It's designed for austere maintenance by conscripts.

One wonders if the Swiss would be interested in the base C/D model of the Gripen, or if they would want the upgraded variant.

Considering their needs, I would expect them to go with the lighter original, as I've said, they do not need the payload/range, which is already far in excess of the F-5s that are being replaced, though the AESA radar might be a part of an upgrade.

^*It probably did not help when, earlier in the competition, Boeing claimed that it would kick ass in short field capabilities relative to the competition.
While the aircraft does take off in a remarkably short distance from an aircraft carrier, that involves the use of catapults and arresting gear.
With the lowest power to weight ratio and highest wing loading of the competitors, they may have had representatives of the Swiss government laughing in their face.

Based on My Calculations, Orwell's Rotational Speed is 5309 RPM

Because we have Nelson Mandela on our no fly list.

I wonder what other Nobel prize winners are on the list.

Adventures in Unfortunate Names

You see a story from the Philippines discussing necociations between the government and the Moro Islamic MILF blames govt for crisis in peace talksiberation Front, only the headline says, "MILF blames govt for crisis in peace talks".

So they are MILFs????? Lol!

Well, Maybe This Poll, for the Ponies

It's not a presidential campaign poll, it's a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey showing a disapproval rating of 71%, "No president has ever had a higher disapproval rating in any CNN or Gallup poll; in fact, this is the first time that any president's disapproval rating has cracked the 70 percent mark".

Ponies.

No Synergy of Evil

It would appear that Cerberus has decided that Blackwater is just too evil to invest in.

Telco Immunity Update

Well, first it appears that Bush and His Evil Minions^™ are coordinating with the Telcos to lobby, and are trying to move heaven and earth to make it so.

I can only conclude that in addition to evidence of illegal wiretaps, that the telcos have information of something much worse, my guess would be that there was specific spying done on political opponents.

If they mutter terrorism to a jury, it is unlikely that a jury would convict them, or that a judge would give them anything more than a slap on the wrist, but if, and there are indications of this, that there is evidence of spying on their opponents, it becomes a whole new ballgame.

If it is discovered that Bush, Cheney, and Rove were spying on Democrats communications, we just might see that impeachment that is "not on the table", or serious prosecutions starting in 2009.

There have always been rumors that they wiretapped Kerry's senior adviser for national security affairs, James Rubin, by surveilling his wife CNN reporter Christiane Amanpour for "national security reasons", and using the inevitable of intercepts of him for political purposes.

My guess is that these activities were far broader and deeper than just one reporter or one candidate.

The Democrats victory in 2006 may very well have been helped along by the NY Times finally breaking the story on the wiretapping, and the telcos getting skittish enough to stop asking "how high" when Bush asked them to jump.

It may all be moot however, as Steny Hoyer and Jay Rockefeller appear to be doing their level best to create full immunity for the phone companies, which would prevent the real story from coming out. Ever.

I'm simply not clear on why Hoyer and Rockefeller are so gung ho about this, unless, of course they were in some way criminally complicit with the program.

What is interesting is that, for now at least, the Vichy Blue Dog Democrats have been remarkably uninterested in getting immunity passed.

As I've said before, I think that they headed home after it did not pass the house, and instead of the storm of criticism they expected, they got high fives from the voters, which gave them some backbone.

DC Madame, Deboroh Jean Palfrey Dean in "Suicide"

All I will note is that Palfrey said in at least one interview that if she was found a suicide, it was murder.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Bummer of a Birth Mark, Hal: Microsoft Edition

Bummer for Steve Ballmer not only has the XP SP3 update been delayed because it breaks an obscure piece of Microsoft software, but it also delayed Vista SP1.

What's more, Dell, HP, and Lenovo will be offering a free "downgrade" to XP on their systems.

I can't remember a product that was more of a disaster than Vista.

What's more, in addition to issues with Norway, it now appears that the high court in the UK has decided to review the British Standard Institution's decision to vote for OOXML as an ISO standard.

Because Dick Cheney Likes Death

Dick Cheney is a busy, busy man.

In addition to outing a CIA agent, authoring torture policy, selling out the nation to oil companies, shooting people in the face, and taking payments from Halliburton, it's nice to know that he can still taking time out to kill whales:

Another internal document shows that the officials working for the Vice President also raised spurious objections to the science. According to this document, the Vice President's staff "contends that we have no evidence (i.e., hard data) that lowering the speeds of 'large ships' will actually make a difference. NOAA rejected these objections, writing that both a statistical analysis of ship strike records and the peer-reviewed literature justified the final rule. In its response to the objections from the Vice President's staff, NOAA reported that there is "no basis to overturn our previous conclusion that imposing a speed limit on large vessels would be beneficial to whales.

Is there even the smallest bit of evil that is done by Bush and His Evil Minions^&trade has to have Cheney's finger prints all over this?

I feel like stunned like that cow that just stepped on it's own udder.

Economics Update

First, initial unemployment insurance claims increase, ba by 35K to 380K. Note that this is an inherently noisy figure, but it's been bad for over a month, which indicates a trend.

Becasue of the Fed's signals regarding future rate cuts, as na ga na do it, the dollar has strengthened, and oil has fallen a bit.

That being said, the Euro zone appears to be under increasing stress from the different economic trajectories of its members.

Citi appears to need more money, so it's raising it through a $4½ billion stock offering, further diluting its stock holders equity.

Seriously, it's like a dog chasing its own tail...down the drain.

We have a number out of San Diego, with house prices off dropping 19.2% since February 2007.

This means that if someone bought a 30 year fixed mortgage, with 20% down, that they would be under water on the loan if closing and broker costs are included.

Na Ga Na Dol It. Wouldn't be Prudent

Presidential Polls....I look at them, but don't have anything to add, so I suggest Talking Points Memo's Poll Tracker.

Well, I might comment on a trend, but my attempt at using Google Spreadsheets to deep a list of polls on my site gave my reader(s) nothing, and me a headache.