The Latest Unemployment Numbers are not Good

While most of the coverage has been about a fall in the unemployment rate, specifically a fall in the U-3 rate, from 5.8% to 5.6%, but this misses a lot.

Specifically, workforce participation fell again, so the number is primarily as a result of people giving up, "Long-term unemployment remains highly elevated, and the work force participation rate, already at historically low levels, slipped in December."

Additionally, wages fell in December, indicating that the ordinary worker is still being screwed by the job market:

The big disappointment was on wages. In the November numbers, one of the brightest signs was an 0.4 percent rise in average hourly earnings, which was a hint that maybe, just maybe, a tighter job market was leading employers to raise wages after years of resisting.

It turned out to be a false signal. In Friday’s revisions, November wages rose only 0.2 percent. And even worse, in December they fell 0.2 percent.

………

Over the last year, the average hourly wage in America has risen 40 cents, from $24.17 to $24.57 an hour. That is a mere 1.65 percent, in the same ballpark as many inflation readings and not a meaningful rise in real wages.

We need to see an improvement in the takehome pay for the median worker before we see anything like a strong job market.