It's Jobless Thursday

And initial jobless claim have fallen for the first time in over a month, by 12K to a still crappy 377K, but the 4-week moving average rose, as did continuing claims, though extended claims fell.  (It should be noted that extended claims are being impacted by people running out their strings, so the drop is not necessarily good news).

I would note that we also have a slightly wonkish bit data point, where the yield curve has inverted, indicating that the markets think that the markets are expecting a deflationary environment:

One could argue that this is a positive development for the US consumer because it could mean price stability. However this move in TIPS certainly raises the risk of near-term deflation, driven by weak demand growth. And deflation is notoriously difficult to get under control. This feels (though only in the near term) a bit like Japan, a nation quite familiar with zero to negative inflation expectations.

Normally, the longer a bond, the higher the rate, because there is a cost to having your money locked up for long periods, but under certain conditions,  like investors desperate for a safe haven, the rates drop as the term lengthens (up to a point).

In a not entirely not unrelated note, the Chinese central bank has unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate in response to their economy slows.

Not a good economic news day.