Best Prediction for 2010

Bruce Krasting, retired finance guy, makes his predictions, and while most are pretty safe, thinks like 'Phants pick up seats, but Dems retain majorities, and Boeing delivers a pitifully small number of Dreamliners, one is completely off the wall, and I mean that in a good way:

• Tim Geithner will resign as Treasury Secretary. Sheila Bair will replace him.

My inclination on reading this was to go all Poppy Bush, and say, "Not gonna happen," but based on recent events, I need to add a qualifier, and say, "Not gonna happen before November 2," the day of the general election.

I think that Barack Obama really believes that Geithner and Summers are the best people for the job, and he believes that the American people believe this too, and it's going to take a big clue stick, something like House Speaker David Boehner, to convince him otherwise.

I tend to agree that a change in party control is unlikely, but I think that there will be significant losses by the Dems, on the order of 30-35 seats, which will put the House in the 1981-83 dynamic, where the Democrats nominally controlled the house, but the Republicans could always peel away enough Dems to get their way.