Economics Update (Yeah, Way Late)

Click for full size

---

Unemployment h/t Calculated Risk


Unemployment over recessions h/t Calculated Risk


Back to where we started before Congress gave the credit card companies a big wet kiss.

I think that this is the first time that I've tot this since Thanksgiving. Sorry, it's been hectic.

The lede, of course, it the unemployment numbers, and we now have the official numbers for November, and they are surprisingly not bad (using the phrase "good" for double digit unemployment is an absurdity): Non Farm Payroll fell by only 11,000 in November, and the Unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 10.0%. (The ADP prediction from earlier this week was way off)

Initial unemployment claims fell by 5K, to 457,000, with the 4-week moving average falling 14,250 to 481,250, both of which are the lowest since the 3^rd quarter of last year.

On the other hand, continuing claims rose by 28K to 5.47 million, and the number of people who were collecting extended (emergency) unemployment benefits the number of people collecting extended benefits under federal programs rose by 327K to 4.53 million for the week ending November 14, when the bill that Congress passed extending benefits kicked in, so there are more people collecting benefits now than there were last week....A lot more.

Seeing as how the US Economy needs to add roughly 150,000 jobs a month just to account for a growing workforce, at best we are in a "getting crappy less quickly" stage, and at worst, it could be a dead cat bounce.

In non-employment related metrics, we have the both the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index falling, though the latter is still indicating expansion, just very slow expansion, though the November Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to a 15-month high, and the Fed's Beige Book is showing improvement.

The reason that I am not optimistic, in addition to being bearish by temperament, is because retail sales fell below estimates for the start of the holiday season, and because personal bankruptcy filings are still horrific, (see pic) they were down in November from October, but still up 12% from Year over Year.

In real estate, 30-year fixed mortgages fell.

And in the world of central banks, the European Central Bank has kept its benchmark rate at 1%, though it gave indications that it would be walking away from its quantitative easing, which drove both oil and the dollar down.