Economics Update

Retail Sales Chart Pr0n Courtesy of Calculated Risk

Well, Helicopter Ben Bernanke is now saying that, "recession is very likely over at this point," in a speech at the Brookings Institution."

This statement, along with the news that retail sales rose 2.7% in August, largely as a result of the Cash for Clunkers program, which actually had a lot more stimulative effect that I would have believed.

What's more, since the engines of the "clunkers" are destroyed, by pouring abrasive in the motor oil, it means that these cars are gone, as opposed to working their way down the food chain in the used market.

We also have the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rising to 18.9, up from 12.1 in August, which gives us two straight months with the index above 0, meaning expansion.

German investor confidence has hit a 3-year high.

So, we have a passle of good news here.

That being said, we are still seeing easing by the central banks, with the Bank of England looking at cutting its rate on bank reserves, the rate that banks are paid to keep their reserves at the BoE, which will make lending a more attractive option for the banks.

We have seen the dollar fall, and the price of oil rise.