Monday, April 13, 2009

Economics Update

Well, we are seeing more signs that China is slowly walking back from its massive investment in the US Dollar, with the world's most populous nation decreasing its holdings in US securities in January and February of this year.

Of note is the rather Panglossian panic in the tone of this article, which appears to make some fairly epic leaps in order to suggest that this is all really good news for the United States and the US dollar.

If there is really a Chinese pullout of US assets for any extended period, the dollar will fall significantly, and inflation will increase, as the cost of imports, including will increase markedly.

This may not be a rush to the exits, but if it's a major player in the currency markets tiptoeing towards the door, it's a much bigger deal than the authors let on.

In any case, it appears that Goldman Sachs will sell about $5 billion in new shares, it's current market cap is around $60 billion, in order to evade the executive pay limits.

I would argue that this is managers not acting in the best interests of the shareholders, particularly since Warren Buffet's deal with Goldman is more costly, as they are theoretically required to, but the idea that shareholders actually own a financial firm, and that management works for the shareholders, is apparently for suckers.

In energy, oil fell on projections from the IEA that demand would continue to fall, though this has had little effect on retail gasoline, which is up 10¢ over the past few weeks.

In currency, the dollar is down, in light trading.

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