Wednesday, August 20, 2008

The Georgia Pullout

I stand by my earlier assessment, that the Russians are pulling out, but doing so with all deliberate slowness.

In any case, it does appear that the Russians are determined to humiliate the Georgians, and their state security apparatus, as much as possible on the way out.

They still seem to be messing around in the main Georgian port of Poti, and they are maintaining that, "A 1999 document written up by the Joint Control Commission, an international body that monitored tensions in South Ossetia, gives peacekeepers access to a long piece of land that extends about nine miles into Georgian territory."

This is about showing who is boss, which is immature, but at least no shots are being fired right now.

That being said, the Russians are suffering some diplomatic blow-back, with Ukraine offering NATO access to a former Soviet missile early warning station, and Poland signing a deal on installing the US ABM system.

Certainly these will be more noticed by the Russians than what will be a temporary downgrade of NATO-Russian relations, which is not going to last long, if just because cooperation with them on Iran is essential.

We have an interesting quote in this article about the US capitulating on NATO membership for Georgia:
“Russia has successfully burned Georgia’s NATO card,” said Sarah E. Mendelson, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Whatever the outcome, Russia has all but obliterated Georgia’s possibility of joining NATO, as it cannot belong to this alliance if it has unresolved border disputes.”
Let's be clear. The Russians won.

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