Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Economics Update

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn is now giving some pretty strong signals that there will be no further rate cuts, which indicates that the Fed might be a bit concerned about inflation now.

The currency markets are most definitely concerned about inflation (which is another word for currency devaluation), and so the dollar has dropped. It's near a month low.

Oil just smashed the $130 barrier, settling at $133.17/bbl, and retail gasoline hit another record.

Real estate continues to face downward pressures, with Mortgage applications falling 7.8%last week. So even though we are in buying season, people are not looking to buy.

Finally, we have what appears to be the collapse of a monoliner insurer with CIFG Guaranty having its rating cut to junk status. They were downgraded from AAA in March, and Moodys just downgraded them further from A1 to Ba2, 7 levels at one swoop.

The business for monoliners is dependent on having an AAA rating. Put a fork in them, they are done.

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