Rabi' al-awwal (ربيع الأول) is Arabic for Tet

It appears now that the truce with Moqtada al-Sadr is well and truly over. Even if hasn't called for a revolt against the Maliki government, he has called for civil disobedience and self defense, and the shooting has begun.

The US blames the latest attacks on rogue Mahdi Army elements tied to Iran, but analysts say the spike in fighting with Shiite militants potentially opens a second front in the war when the American military is still doing battle with the Sunni extremists of Al Qaeda in Iraq.

"The cease-fire is over; we have been told to fight the Americans," said one Mahdi Army militiaman, who was reached by telephone in Sadr City.

The force most closely linked to Iran is not the Mahdi Army. It is sectarian, but also Iraqi nationalist.

It isn't helping that out west, the Sunni Militias are going strike because they have not been paid.

It would be comical if it were not for the killing.

The ones in the thrall of Iran, are Maliki's guys. They fought for Iran in the war, and tortured Iraqi POWs at the request of the Iranians.

The Americans don't get it. Sadr is not an Iranian puppet, he's the strongest nationalist Shia out there, though this is not stopping David Petraeus, Bushes Bitch on the Euphrates, from claiming that all the attacks are coming from Iran.

Sir, you are a lying sack of sh%$ and a disgrace to your uniform, the men who serve under you, and the United States of America.

The press coverage on this side of the pond, excepting the Monitor and McClatchy, is universally poor, with claims that the civil disobedience causing the violence.

Eric Martin makes some very good points about how Malicki and the US undermined the truce int he first place.

He notes there has been a crackdown against the Mahdi army and its related political party in advance of provincial elections.

It's pretty clear that the state security apparatus, and the US military, have been used in an attempt to influence these elections.

Ilan Goldenberg notes, when talking about the factors responsible for the current lull in the violence:

It's hard to say for sure, which of these factors [The surge, the Anbar Awakening, the Sadr ceasfire, or the Completion of ethnic cleansing in most of Baghdad] was the most important. The Bush Administration will tell you it's all about the troop levels. I've tended to believe it's more of a mix and was most inclined towards the Anbar Awakening and the sectarian cleansing as the important factors. But when you look at the data it really seems to indicate that the Sadr ceasefire may have been the key.

More than anything else, Sadr wants us out.

He may get it before November.