Friday, March 21, 2008

Michigan Getting Very Ugly Very Fast, Florida Getting Better

As I said a few days ago, the issue of whether folks who voted in the Replithug primary could vote is a legitimate one, but it's Obama who has everything to lose here. For Clinton, any resolution has an upside.

So, the Michigan re-vote plan has died in the state senate, because the Obama people were objecting to the exclusion of Republican voters.

I understand the principal, but on all other levels, it is mind-bogglingly stupid.

I agree with Jeralyn Merritt's take onObama's preferred solution, a 50-50 split of delegates. This is explicitly preventing a legitimate vote with a legitimate count. You are in Bush buddy James Baker territory.

The math is bad for Clinton right. It's very, very bad. If there were a revote in Florida and Michigan, Hillary would need to win by about 20% to improve her position, which is not going to happen absent an Elliot Spitzer type revelation.

By playing hardball on this, Obama is opening the door for a fight in the credentialing committee and a floor fight at the convention.

It's worse than a sin, it is a mistake.

In Florida, however, things are looking brighter, with a proposal to give ½ the delegates according to the Jan 29 votes, and the remainder according to the nationwide split of votes received.

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