The Biggest Threat to US and Israeli Security, Revisited

Here's another story on the disastrous nuclear deal that the Bush administration has cut with India.

Money quote:

India's leftist parties object strongly to the accord. They say it undermines the country's sovereignty and its right to conduct nuclear tests. They insist the government stall negotiations, scheduled with the International Atomic Energy Agency and others, until their objections are met.

So, what are the consequences of this deal?

• India's nuclear weapons program at best continues at the current pace.
  
• Most likely scenario: this frees up resources from civilian nuclear power to go into the weapons program.
• Almost as likely scenario: Civilian resources are hijacked to serve the military program.
• Pakistan accelerates its nuclear program in response.
• Pakistan's state security apparatus is thoroughly infiltrated by Islamists and supporters of the Taliban.
• Pakistan is very close to a failed stated, with the northern areas not under governmental control, a ruler installed by coup, civil society opposing the current government, and a large segment of the population supporting a Wahabi theocracy.
• In the event of an Islamist takeover, it is likely that nuclear materials will be under the control of Islamists, who would seriously consider using them against the US and Israel.

This is quite literally a bigger blunder than invading Iraq.