John Taylor Calls out Ben Bernanke

Click for full size

---

Ben Bernanke in his younger days

He politely says that Bernanke is full of it, and that low rates caused the bubble:

John Taylor, creator of the so-called Taylor Rule for guiding monetary policy, disputed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s argument that low interest rates didn’t cause the U.S. housing bubble.

“The evidence is overwhelming that those low interest rates were not only unusually low but they logically were a factor in the housing boom and therefore ultimately the bust,” Taylor, a Stanford University economist, said in an interview today in Atlanta.

Taylor, a former Treasury undersecretary, was responding to a speech by Bernanke two days ago, when he [Bernanke] said the Fed’s monetary policy after the 2001 recession “appears to have been reasonably appropriate” and that better regulation would have been more effective than higher rates in curbing the boom.

The Taylor rule, from the Wiki:

In economics, a Taylor rule is a monetary-policy rule that stipulates how much the central bank would or should change the nominal interest rate in response to divergences of actual inflation rates from target inflation rates and of actual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from potential GDP. It was first proposed by the U.S. economist John B. Taylor in 1993.

I'm not sure of the value of the Taylor rule, there seem to be some "miracle occurs here" bits in the coefficients used, but it is significant that someone with his sort of academic credentials (he has a fracking rule named after him) is coming out hard against the Fed Chairman's excuses.

Year End Auto Wrap Up

Click for full size

---

Numbers are year over year h/t CNN

The surprising news is that in 2009, more old cars were scrapped than new cars were bought, meaning that the US auto fleet fell to 246 million from 250 million.

Note that "cash for clunkers" accounted for only about 700,000 vehicles, so the auto fleet would have contracted without the program.

This is the first time that the US fleet has shrunk since probably the end of WWII.

So the year sucked in terms of sales, though December was good for Ford and Toyota, but bad for GM and Chrysler.

Sales had to go up, as at their nadir, sales would have resulted in a fleet age of almost 30 years.

Oh, God, Not This Jerk!

Harold Ford, of the deeply corrupt Ford political clan in Tennesee is being groomed to challenge Kristen Gillibrand in the New York State Democratic Senate primary:

Encouraged by a group of influential New York Democrats, Harold Ford Jr., the former congressman from Tennessee, is weighing a bid to unseat Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand in this fall’s Democratic primary, according to three people who have spoken with him.

Mr. Ford, 39, who moved to New York three years ago, has told friends that he will decide whether to run in the next 45 days. The discussions between Mr. Ford and top Democratic donors reflect the dissatisfaction of some prominent party members with Ms. Gillibrand, who has yet to win over key constituencies, especially in New York City.

Let's be clear what they mean when they say, "especially in New York City": they mean that they think that they might have a chance because Harold Ford is black.

Since losing his race for the Senate in 2006, Ford has been a mouthpiece for the corporatist Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) what is going on here is that the powers that be in New York, well, the DINO ones, have been "disappointed" in Gillibrand, because, as she has moved from a very conservative congressional district to a rather liberal state as her constituency, her positions have changed:

Some of the donors who have urged Mr. Ford to consider a run expressed alarm as Ms. Gillibrand, who as a congresswoman represented a conservative upstate district, has abandoned some of her previous positions on issues like gun control and immigration as she prepares to run statewide. Several executives interested in a Ford candidacy said that Ms. Gillibrand’s positions echoed Mr. Schumer’s and that the state needed a second independent voice in the Senate.

What they are saying here is that they don't want a real Democrat here, they want a corporate whore, and that is what Harold Ford is.

Most of the opposition to Gillibrand in the New York Democratic party comes from people who think that she is too conservative for the party and for the state, but the people mentioned here, like "Financier Steven Rattner," who ran the auto bailout until an influence buying scandal forced him out.

I'm not a fan of Gillibrand, but Harold Ford? What they hell are they thinking?

Economics Update

Click for full size

---

H/t Calculated Risk

Well, the ADP private employment survey is saying that the private sector lost 84,000 jobs in December, and the Institute for Supply Management's non manufacturing index rose to 50.1, up from 48.7 in November, and not as good as forecast, but still showing a smidgen of growth.

Real estate was rather grim though, with mortgage applications hitting (seasonally adjusted) a 6 month low, and mortgage purchase applications (top pic) hitting a 12 year low.

Basically this means that people are not buying homes, they are just refinancing, though, with interest rates inching up, they aren't doing that as much either.

Additionally, a feature of suburban blight, the strip mall, is taking a hit with vacancies hitting 10.6%, an 18 year high.

I keep saying it, but no one listens: we need some inflation here.

In energy, the cold weather drove both crude oil and natural gas higher, while in currency, the dollar fell slightly vs. the Euro, as traders make up their minds about whether to be optimists of pessimists.

Icelandic President Vetoes Bailout to British Investors

Click for full size

---

The Icelandic people literally came out with torches

After receiving a petition containing signatures from almost ¼ of the registered voters in Iceland, Iceland's President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson vetoed the bailout bill. It appears that the original version, which would saddle every man, woman, and child in Iceland with a debt of €12,000, about $17,000.

The original bill which passed contained a provision allowing for renegotiation on any unpaid amount after 2024, but the British and Dutch threw a fit over that, so, like the debt slaves that they are on the way to becoming, the government promptly caved, and the Althingi passed a bill without any real prospect of ever getting the bankers' boots off of their necks.

It has the effect of requiring the bill to be passed by referendum, which is an uphill road, when you consider the fact that 62,000 people out of a population of about 320,000 just signed a petition asking for a veto.

The President notes in his official statement, (PDF) that he believes that it is the right of the people to make such a decision:

It is the cornerstone of the constitutional structure of the Republic of Iceland that the people are the supreme judge of the validity of the law. Under the Constitution, which was passed on the foundation of the Republic in 1944, and which over 90% of the nation approved in a referendum, the power which formerly rested with the Althingi and the King was transferred to the people. It is then the responsibility of the President of the Republic to ensure that the nation can exercise this right.

In the comments of Calculated Risk.s post on the matter, a commenter nailed the absurdity of the deal for the Icelandic people:

They lose their IMF bailout money I think.

Am I right that the proposed IMF bailout is about $6 billion? And the bill from Britain is apparently for 3.4 billion pounds, or about $5.5 billion?

Funny coincidence, that.

Yes, funny that: Because a bunch of people invested in the Internet branches of a local bank, accounts that had were never guaranteed by the Icelandic government, because of the high amount of interest paid, the Icelandic people are supposed to take a loan from the IMF to pay off the people who made risky investments to get high returns.

High returns=high risk. This is not even investing 101, it's investing, "remedial classes, because you spent high school stoned."

The investors knew what they were getting into.

Basically, this is the US paying AIG counterparties, but in an amount that comes to ½ of GDP.

Basically, the deal with Iceland was as follows: put your population in debt slavery, and in return, you get, an IMF loan to pay the morons who invested in a dodgy bank.

Then, the IMF will demand that Iceland:

• Dismantle its social safety net
• Sell off its fishing rights, which is the major productive industry in Iceland, to foreigners who will rape the fisheries.
• Fire public employees.
• Privatize energy, water, and other utilities, so that foreigners can buy it and rape the citizenry.

In return, Iceland's debt might not get downgraded to junk status.

I'm with Felix Salmon on standing up to bullies:

I’m quite ashamed of the bullying tactics being used here by the UK government. What happened was that an Icelandic bank, Landsbanki, started attracting UK depositors through its Icesave brand. When Landsbanki failed, the UK government bailed out those depositors in full. And now it wants that money back from the Icelandic government, which never guaranteed the Icesave deposits. If you thought the cod wars were bad, this is much worse.

(emphasis mine)

One of the flaws in the current finance system is that requirement that people be made whole when they chase high returns. It creates moral hazard, which leads to more stupidity.

Rinse, lather, repeat.

Burn in Hell, Dude

White supremacist scum bag James von Brunn has died in prison awaiting trial.

Senator Chris Dodd to Retire

It's a pity, he's a good man, and he has now announced that he won't be running for reelection.

He's leaving because he believes that it's an uphill fight for him to win the election:

Polling in Connecticut suggested that Mr. Dodd had been hurt both by his association with Countrywide and by criticism for his role in legislation that appeared to clear the way for bonuses to be paid to executives of American International Group, the insurance firm that received a government bailout. (Last month, Kenneth R. Feinberg, who is charged with monitoring pay at companies that received taxpayer bailout funds, imposed pay limits for A.I.G.’s top executives.)

Republicans had viewed the Countrywide loans and the A.I.G. bonuses as potentially powerful weapons in the campaign.…………”

His spending a year in Iowa to run for President, and the Countrywide loan deal, which he was personally unaware of, hurt him, but what really hurt him was the AIG bonus scandal, where the Obama and His Evil Minions^™, most notably Timothy Geithner, strong armed him into including a section in the relevant bill to allow the obscene bonuses, and then refused to admit the truth for weeks, leaving Dodd twisting in the wind. (See here, here, and here…………Note that the first link has my prediction that, "Geithner will be gone by June," so much for my powers of prediction)

[on edit]I forgot to note that Connecticut Attorney General, Richard Blumenthal (D) has announced that he will run, and is now the presumptive favorite in the heavily blue Nutmeg State.

Big Surprise

The Conference Board's survey of US job satisfaction hit an all time low. 45%, the lowest number since the survey began in 1987.

There is some surprise that, even as workplace safety and things like vacation days have increased, this number had trended downward:

"[That] could spell trouble for the overall engagement of U.S. employees and ultimately employee productivity," she [Lynn Franco, director of the Consumer Research Center of The Conference Board] added.

The report notes that job satisfaction has steadily declined over the years despite big improvements in the work environment, such as a reduction of workplace hazards and an increase in vacation days.

Simply put, we are at the point where the fetishism of management for screwing with their workers may start hitting the bottom line.

This is basic primate behavior: People know that that upper management's wages have gone up by more than 10 times, while their wages have stagnated.

The National Geographic noted this over 15 years ago:

Monkeys Show Sense Of Fairness, Study Says
Sean Markey
National Geographic News
September 17, 2003

If you expect equal pay for equal work, you're not the only species to have a sense of fair play. Blame evolution.

Researchers studying brown capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) have found that the highly social, cooperative species native to South America show a sense of fairness, the first time such behavior has been documented in a species other than humans.

The question of whether human aversion to unfair treatment—now shown by other primates—is an evolved behavior or the result of the cultural influence of large social institutions like religion, governments, and schools, in the case of humans, has intrigued scientists in recent years.

The new finding suggests evolution may have something to do with it. It also highlights questions about the economic and evolutionary nature of cooperation and its relationship to a species' sense of fairness, while adding yet another chapter to our understanding of primates.

……………

Tobacco Regulations Largely Upheld By Court

Big tobacco had a minor win, the judge said that the FDA could not the use of color and graphics in their advertisements, which is pretty much in line with the law as I understand it for "corporate free speech," but allowed a ban on using merchandise and sponsorships to stand:

The judge struck down some modest restrictions on color and graphics in tobacco and on labels that tobacco companies said violated their free speech rights.

U.S. District Judge Joseph McKinley approved bans on sponsorships of athletic, cultural and social events and the use of tobacco imagery on such things as caps and T-shirts, rejecting the companies' argument that the ban was too broad and failed to differentiate between adults and children.

He also upheld a requirement that warning labels cover half of the front and back of the packaging of tobacco products.

So, their package will be dominated by warning labels, and they cannot sponsor events or hand out ball caps, but they can use pictures and color on the labels.

Pretty much a win for the government.

First Massachusetts Senate Special Election Poll Out

It's Rasmussen, and they say that Democrat candidate Martha Coakley leads Republican Scott Brown by 50% to 41%.

Not particularly surprising.

Obviously special elections are rather quirky affairs, what with turnout being low, but Coakley's turnout machine worked well in the primary, so I think that this is, absent her doing something really stupid, is in the bag.

There is an interesting point here though: If Brown were to win, the Dems would be down to 59 seats, and the Republican filibuster would hold, which might force the White House and Congress to use reconciliation, which might create a much better bill.

So, which is it, The Lady or the Tiger?

Read the Rude Pundit

He's a genius, as he shows in his latest, "It Shouldn't Surprise Us that Some Ex-Gitmo Detainees Want to F%$# Us Up." (%$# mine):

We are incapable of dealing with the notion that whether you're the good guy or the bad guy is a matter of perception. And that sometimes the United States is the bad guy. Unless we're willing to confront that and do something about it (like, at minimum, apologize and offer compensation), then we shouldn't be surprised that Yemeni Mel Gibsons will seek to go all Lethal Weapon on us.

The man is a genius, if somewhat profane.

Go read.

1995

See this article, "Iran May Be Able to Build an Atomic Bomb in 5 Years, U.S. and Israeli Officials Fear? Its from the January 3 issues of The New York Times.

That would be January 3 of 1995, that is.

Iran has been around 5 years away from a nuke for a very long time.

Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) Retiring

Dorgan has something like a 65% favorable rating among his constituents, but with him out, this is very likely a Republican pick-up.

The state went for McCain over Obama by 53% to 45% which places it in solidly red category.

The Religious Right Really Needs To Get Laid

Because, they are really wound way to tight.

Case in point, their collective sh%$ fit over the appointment of Amanda Simpson as a senior technical advisor to the Commerce Department, where her portfolio will include the export of dual use technologies, because she is transgendered.

You can see excerpts of the freakout by focus on the family about this at the link, and my conclusion is that they are freaking, because no one there has gotten their porcupine properly whacked in a very long time.

As to her qualifications:

Simpson is highly qualified for the position. She has worked in the aerospace and defense industry for 30 years, most recently serving as Deputy Director in Advanced Technology Development at Raytheon Missile Systems. She holds degrees in physics, engineering and business administration, and is a certified flight instructor and test pilot with 20 years of experience.

So she's a test pilot and a f%$#ing rocket scientist, but all that the religious right can think about is that her plumbing has been altered.

This is Despicable

In an in your face to basic civil rights, justice, and American values, the Obama administration is halting transfer of Guantanamo detainees back to Yemen.

Remember, these are the ones who were investigated, and determined not to be terrorists.

So, innocence doesn't matter, it's politically inconvenient, so we'll keep these guys in our Caribbean gulag.

Jon Stewart is a F%$#ing Genius

When he says the following about the underoos bomber^™, "Even If The Bomb Works, There's Gonna Be 72 Very Disappointed Virgins," I nearly plotzed.

Economics Update

If anyone thinks that real estate can lead us out of of a recession, or even that we can, as Mssrs. Obama, Geithner, Summers, etc., think that we can reinflate the bubble, you need to look no further than the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales index, which fell 16% in November well under the forecast of -2%, though it is still up year over year.

They are trying to reinflate a balloon with a hole in it.

In any case, the horrible housing numbers drove treasury prices up as investors fled to safety.

It does appear, however, that foreign investors were going elsewhere, with the dollar falling against the yen, and in energy .

Olbermann Jumps the Shark

No, I'm not talking about his bit with Richard Wolffe, where conflates bureaucratic turf wars with a group of Republican moles actively aiding terrorists, I mean his new feature, the 2 short "mini-comments", each 1 minute long, which will air each show.

Normally, I use the phrase "Jump the Shark," to describe some sort of gaffe which will forever tarnish the person who uttered the bon mot.

However, in this case, I am referring to the original, and rather more mild definition of, the point in a television program's history where it's done, and there is not much more to get out of it.

Regular twice-a-show mini "Special Comments" are an indication that the program has run out its string.

It's not surprising: Countdown was always more driven by snark, particularly in the early days, and outrage at Bush and His Evil Minions^™ and Olbermann is a (very good) sportscaster who tends to see political confrontations in the same sort zero-sum terms of a ball game.

BTW, if one of my reader(s) could rat me out to Olbermann as a "Worst Person in the World", please do so. I could use the eyeballs.

I'm more of a policy wonk myself, and as such I prefer Rachael Maddow's show, and I will always be grateful to Keith Olbermann for introducing me to her show.

I'll still probably watch it streaming on my PC, in the background, which is what I do with both of their shows now, but Keith does not surprise me much any more.

Normally, I Don't Quote Paul R. La Monica…………

I find him rather to excessively optimistic, glib, shallow, and thoroughly conventional in his journalism.

That being said, his review of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at the American Economic Association meeting in Atlanta, nails it in the title, "Surprise! The Fed says don't blame the Fed."

That pretty much captures the substance of what Bernanke said in a nutshell.

The Masque Slips

Republican Congressional Candidate Allen Quist has just said that it's more important to fight Democrats than it is to fight terrorism:

"It's because I, like you, have seen that our country is being destroyed. I mean, this is -- every generation has had to fight the fight for freedom. This is our fight. And this is our time. This is it. Terrorism, yes -- but that's not the big battle. The big battle is in D.C., with the radicals. They aren't liberals, they're radicals. Obama, Pelosi, Walz -- they're not liberals, they're radicals. They are destroying our country. And people all over are figuring that out."

Well, it's nice that at least one of them is telling the truth, that they find the quest for power is more important than the well-being of the nation.

Here is the video, you can see that statement at about the 3 minute mark:

Unsurprising News of the Day

BofA CEO disagrees with bank break-up calls.

Sorry, but that is not even news. It's kind of like announcing that children like candy.

Another Republican Retires

Rep. Henry Brown (R-SC).

What's interesting here is that 14 'Phants have retired as vs. 9 Dems so far, which implies to me that, notwithstanding what the leadership says, the House Republican rank and file does not believe that it can take back the house.

Why the Air Force as an Independent Service Should be Abolished: Part 32

Matthew Yglesias reports that retired USAF Lieutenant General Tom McInerney has just called for mandatory strip searches of all Muslims aged between the ages of 18 to 28 in an interview with (who else)Fox News.

This guy is bats%$# insane, but his insanity is endemic with the Air Force, as has been noted in a number of stories regarding a pervasive atmosphere of religious harassment at the Air Force academy.

(I've done a couple of posts on the problem generally.)

The problem here is not that he was in the Air Force. Any organization will have its share of crazies, criminals, and incompetents.

The problem is that he made it to 3-stars, despite being clearly unhinged, and there is way too much of that in the US air force.

In fact, in the video below, it's clear that it's so crazy that the interviewer on Fox feels the need to call him out on this, because of the hostility it would engender:



Bootnote: It looks like Al-Jazeerah is already covering it, so congratulations general, you just murdered a dozen or so US troops over the next few months.

Let Me Get This Straight………

Investors are suing Bank of America, charging that the bank (and I use the term loosely) deceived investors over the terms of bonuses to Merrill Lynch executives prior to the vote to acquire the brokerage.

Well, it appears that much BoA's defense appears to be that if its investors ignored what they said, and read the financial press, they would have known anyway, but the judge just shot down that argument:

Bank of America Corp. suffered a setback in its defense to civil claims that it misled investors after a judge ruled that it may not introduce at a trial testimony about media reports predicting it would pay bonuses.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued the lender on Aug. 3 claiming it misled investors about bonus payments while buying Merrill Lynch & Co. Bank of America said in a November 2008 proxy statement that Merrill agreed not to pay year-end bonuses when the bank had already agreed to Merrill’s paying as much as $5.8 billion, the SEC claims. A trial is scheduled for March in New York.

As part of its defense, Bank of America has argued that shareholders already knew, as a result of media reports, that Merrill would likely pay billions of dollars in bonuses. U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff in Manhattan today barred the bank from offering testimony about such reports because the proxy statement itself told shareholders to ignore them.

“In effect, the bank is arguing that, even though it expressly warned its shareholders to disregard the media, it can now defend itself by asserting that a reasonable shareholder would have disregarded these warnings and, by consulting the media, perceived that the bank’s alleged lies were immaterial,” Rakoff wrote in a six-page opinion. “Even a zealous advocate might perceive that such an argument hints at hypocrisy.”

(emphasis mine)

So your argument is that you were telling a baldfaced lie, and everyone knew that you were lying?

Well, good luck with that.

When your defense against fraud charges is that the newspapers had shown that they were lying sacks of s%$#, I think that you are missing this whole "how to win the case" thing.

When a Big Box Stores Turn to Terrorism

I don't mean terrorism in stores, I mean terrorism by stores.

Specifically, a vicious and malicious assault on the eyes by a warehouse store known as Brandsmart.

As "jollyreaper," who introduced me to the photo, notes, "Never did I think I could find a store to make Best Buy seem tasteful and sedate. That entire store is turned up to 11. "

Maybe even turned up to 12:

Click for full size

I think that my eyes are now bleeding, and it's way worse in full size.

Speaking of Michelle Bachmann's Frothing at the Mouth Lunacy on the Census

Click for full size

---

The Crazy, It Burns US!!!!

She has stopped asking people not to fill out the Census over the past few months.

Why is this? Well, perhaps it's because if Minnesota loses a Congressional district, it's likely it will be her district that goes the way of those dinosaurs that she does not believe in:

State demographer Tom Gillaspy has been
warning for months that the next census
could result in the loss of one congressional s
eat in Minnesota. In fact, he confessed last
week that, until the recession hit, he was
almost resigned to the probability that
Minnesotans would be allowed to elect only
seven U.S. House members from newly
drawn districts in 2012.

……………

It's ironic that a Minnesota member of Congress, Republican Michele Bachmann, went so far last summer to declare her intention to only partially complete her census forms, and to suggest reasons for others not to comply with the census law. If Minnesota loses a congressional seat, Bachmann's populous Sixth District could be carved into pieces. She likely would have to battle another incumbent to hang on to her seat. We've noticed that her anticensus rhetoric has lately ceased. We hope she got wise: Census compliance is not only in Minnesota's best interest, but also her own.

As Eric Kleefeld notes at TPM:

The really fun fact, as I've learned from Minnesota experts, is that Bachmann's district would likely be the first to go if the state lost a seat. The other seats are all fairly regular-shaped, logical districts built around identifiable regions of the state (Minneapolis, St. Paul, the Iron Range, and so on). Bachmann's district is made of what's left over after such a process, twisting and turning from a small strip of the Wisconsin border and curving deep into the middle of the state. As such, the obvious course of action if the state loses a seat is to split her district up among its neighbors.

Basically, her district is made up of all those areas left over after they did the first 7, which are made up, in classic "Minnesota Nice" manner to be contiguous and to represent regions accurately and fairly.

I'd say that Karma was a bitch, but that would probably make Brit Hume angry.

What Do Alan Grayson and Church Lady Have in Common

Could it be ………… Satan?

Well, first, they are both very funny, and they both present an aggressive take on truth and hypocrisy.

Now we have a 3^rd thing, they both think that Satan has something to the darkness at the core of our society:

The Prince of Darkness himself might be best-suited to write the foreword to former Vice President Dick Cheney's forthcoming book, Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) suggested Monday.

Grayson, during an appearance on MSNBC, blasted the former Republican vice president for having attacked President Barack Obama's handling of defending the U.S. from terrorist attacks.

Cheney's attacks, Grayson argued, were only a tactic to gin up sales for his memoir, which is expected to be released this year.

"I wonder who's doing the introduction to his book?" Grayson said. "Maybe it's Mephistopheles; maybe it's Satan."

Somehow I doubt that Satan would want to be associated with Dick Cheney, it would be bad for his image, but Grayson's underlying point, that the Republicans used security as political theater, rather than making a good faith attempt to keep us safe, is valid.

One note to the morons who compare Grayson to people like Michelle Bachman: There is a difference.

Grayson uses hyperbole to make his point, and he knows it, while when Bachmann says, for example, that US Census data will be used for Kommie Koncentration Kamps^™, she actually really believes it.

Economics Update

The Institute for Supply Management's national factory index just rose to 55.9, the highest reading on factory activity since April 2006.

It's good news, but but as Krugman notes, it may just be an inventory bounce:

Such blips are often, in part, statistical illusions. But even more important, they’re usually caused by an “inventory bounce.” When the economy slumps, companies typically find themselves with large stocks of unsold goods. To work off their excess inventories, they slash production; once the excess has been disposed of, they raise production again, which shows up as a burst of growth in G.D.P. Unfortunately, growth caused by an inventory bounce is a one-shot affair unless underlying sources of demand, such as consumer spending and long-term investment, pick up.

That being said, we are seeing increased demands for capital from small businesses, with a 37% year over year increase in the Small Business Administration's 7(a) lending program, a total of $3.8 billion.

On the down side, construction spending fell for the 7^th, falling 0.6%, and it has been reported that US bankruptcies are up 32% in 2008.

On the other side of the pond, new orders to factories slowed in the Euro zone.

In energy, low temperatures and a Russia-Belarus price dispute drove Oil above $80/bbl.

In currency, the US dollar fells on the good ISM factory report, as risk appetite improved.

Rep. Parker Griffith's Staff Quits En Masse

This is not a big surprise, first, they know that they won't find work with Republicans, and second, they know that if they don't quit, they won't ever work for a Democratic Congressman again:

In a sternly worded statement, Griffith Chief of Staff Sharon Wheeler announced the exit of herself, along with legislative director Megan Swearingen, senior legislative assistant Brian Greer, legislative assistant Will Crain, press secretary Sean Magers, legislative correspondent Arinze Ifekauche, legislative correspondent Chase Chesser, staff assistant Mary Lou Hughston, congressional fellows Anjali Shah Kastorf and Leslee Oden and intern Andrew Menefee.

Griffith's political consulting team has already parted ways with him since he announced over the holiday break that he would switch parties.

(emphasis mine)

The intern quit? The intern?

Dude, when your intern felt compelled to quit, you just got yourself seriously dissed.

Elections Have Consequences: Not Pandering to the House of Saud

In response to the attempted bombing of Northwest Flight 253, the TSA will engage in aggressive screening of travelers from 14 countries.

I think that, once again, we are seeing something that is more security theater than real security, but there is a refreshing change in this little charade:

Citizens of 14 nations, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, who are flying to the United States will be subjected indefinitely to the intense screening at airports worldwide that was imposed after the Christmas Day bombing plot, Obama administration officials announced Sunday.

………………

Citizens of Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria, countries that are considered “state sponsors of terrorism,” as well as those of “countries of interest” — including Afghanistan, Algeria, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Yemen — will face the special scrutiny, officials said.

(emphasis mine)

This is significant break from the way that Bush and His Evil Minions^™ dealt with the House of Saud, which basically involved putting their tongues so far up the anus of Prince Bandar that they tasted tonsils.

Not Enough Bullets

AIG general counsel Anastasia Kelly is to receive millions in dollars in severance after her pay was cut by Obama's "pay Czar".

I would note that she is the only one of the AIG executives to go through with their threat to leave, which implies that she might have been pushed, and as general counsel, she doubtless played a central role in the creation of these severance deals.

Sorry, but I think that it is time for the DoJ and SEC to see if she was doing something illegal in the way of self dealing.

Considering her background, she was also general counsel at the MCI/Worldcom, perhaps the bar association should investigate her too, since they can take action against incompetent lawyers.

Dick Cheney has, "Political Diarrhea of the Mouth"

So says, Representative Eric Massa (D-NY), and now I have to clean off my screen.

He also used the term "political Tourettes", which is unfair to people with that disability, but it's nice to see another Democrats with guts.

Report: Russia Enters Test With PAK-FA

Click for full size

---

Nose Radar Installation


Wing Leading Edge Arrays


Optical/IR Search and Track

We now have a report that they have run up the engines in the prototype and taxied:

The first prototype of the aircraft rolled out on the runway of KNAAPO aircraft plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in the country's far east. The test pilot switched on its engines and made two runs on the airstrip, during which breaks were applied several times.

The report says that they expect to field the aircraft in 2015, but my guess is that this is either a deliberate deception, or self delusion.

We are still getting conflicting reports on just what the aircraft is like, though this story reports a 3,500 km range, which I assume refers to ferry range, and is roughly equivalent to that of the F-22, for which the Wiki quotes a 2,000 mi (3,219 km) range.

Assuming that this is the case, I would assume that the PAK-FA is a bit smaller than the F-22, since the Russians tend to have internal fuel tanks which are not rated at the aircraft's full performance (the equivalent of a internal "external tank"), as they are doctrinally less inclined to use either external tanks or aerial refueling.

One thing that is almost certain though: That its missiles will have superior kinematics to the AMRAAM/AIM-9Z used by the Raptor. The current Russian missiles are larger and heavier than the American loadout, and larger missiles=larger motors=longer range and better terminal performance.

Also, my guess is that the Russians are going "stealth lite", with a greater reliance on sensors and missile kinematics, as opposed to all aspect stealth.

The photos from the Wiki, show a larger AESA radar array (top pic), wing leading edge mounted arrays for better off-axis performance (middle pic), and an Optical/IR Search and Track (bottom pic) for passive, or 3^rd party designated, engagement of targets.

My guess is that the missiles will be mounted conformally, as opposed to internally, because the associated weight of internal carriage of larger missiles would very likely prove prohibitive.

But those are just my not-particularly-educated guesses, and we have to wait for the first blurry photos to be leaked to Aviation Week & Space Technology.

What 10 Years of Conservatives Getting What They Wanted Got Us

Click for full size

---

Note that private employment rolls actually fell

---

And in handy bar graph form

The Washington Post correctly called the "Aughts" a lost decade, inflation adjusted median income fell (for the first time on record), non-farm payroll experienced no growth (for the first time on record), household wealth fell (for the first time on record), GDP rose by the lowest number since at least the Great Depression.

The same goes for the stock market, only in this case, the records go back 200 years.

We have had a grand experiment of embracing conservative philosophy, with a highly right wing executive and a compliant legislative branch, since 2001 and the result has been miserable failure.

The past decade may not be as bad as the Great Depression, but it beats anything else in the 20^th or 21^st century, and it is not over yet.

My Life Is Less Exciting Than This Sounds

Yesterday, I went to an event for a medieval reenactment group, the Society for Creative Anachronism, and I left without my pants.

The full story is that I went there in street clothes, and changed into period garb there, and somehow or other, the jeans that I wore to the event did not make themselves back into my bag.

I had to pick them up today.

Pretty dull, but that first sentence is intriguing.

Wanker of the Day

Brit Hume, who suggests the reason that a sports figure whom I will not name is cheating on his wife is because he's a Buddhist, unlike those good, Chri$tian, right wing Republithugs like Larry Craig, Jojn Ensign, David Vitter, Newt Gingrich, David Livingston, Mark Sanford, Vito Fossella, etc.

So both he's a moron and a bigot, which explains his success at Fox News.

[on edit] It appears that Atrios agrees.

The Right to Blaspheme is the Core of Civil Rights in a Modern Democracy

So, we now have the breaking news that a a man armed with knives and axes attempted to break into the home of Kurt Westergaard, one of the artists who created the Danish cartoons (see pic).

The response to such terrorism must be more speech that religious fundamentalists find blasphemous, hence my reposting the picture. If you allow the clergy to determine what can, or cannot, be said, you eventually create a theocracy, and history has shown that theocracies are amongst the worst forms of despotism.

Additionally, as I have said before, "If your God can't take me calling him a pig felcher, then he ain't much of a God."

While I understand how backward 3^rd nations, like, for example, Ireland might want to outlaw blasphemy, I think that modern nations must necessarily understand that as a condition for full access to the benefits of western economies and markets.

The free traders believe that open markets create open societies, but given the explosion of blasphemy laws, and blasphemy prosecutions, since the adoption of the GATT (Now WTO), I would argue that the opposite has occurred.

The reduction to costs involved in acceding to the demands of medieval fundamentalists, because the current model of "free trade" means that a country has full access to international markets unless their policies are nearly genocidal, has led mainstream politicians who are looking for allies and coalition partners, to sign off on demands that are contrary to modern civil rights.

FWIW, I believe that the same sanctions should be applied to laws that criminalize criticism of royalty (Thailand) or the nation (Turkey, etc.).

Really Bad Idea

It seems that the Chinese are looking at using nuclear powered cargo ships to ship cheap crap to the USA.

Bad idea, and a lose, as is obvious from looking at the history of nuclear powered civilian cargo vessels, or just the numbers for the NS Savannah:

However, Savannah's cargo space was limited to 8,500 tons of freight in 652,000 cubic feet (18,000 m³). Many of her competitors could accommodate several times as much. Her streamlined hull made loading the forward holds laborious, which became a significant disadvantage as ports became more and more automated. Her crew was a third larger than comparable oil-fired ships and received special training after completing all training requirements for conventional maritime licenses. Her operating budget included the maintenance of a separate shore organization for negotiating her port visits and a personalized shipyard facility for completing any needed repairs.

And then there is that whole Somali Pirate thing, which makes the idea of an unarmed civilian ship operating a nuclear reactor on the high seas even less attractive.

I can see al Qaeda salivating over the prospect of seizing a ship like this.

H/t Information Dissemination

Kabul 40 Years Ago Vs. Kabul Today

Click for full size

---

Thank you Jimmy Carter

If you wonder why the Afghans hate us, understand what they were like before Jimmy Carter and Zbigniew Brezinski decided to buy a civil war there.

It's pretty much the same for a lot of Pakistan, where much of the country has been awash in drugs, weapons, and violence since we decided to screw with the Afghans in order to screw with the Soviets by proxy.

Su-34 Bombers Enter RuAF Service

It's a dedicated bomber variant of the Flanker, with side-by-side seating and a toilet(!) for extended missions, and the first two aircraft in an order of 32 have entered service with the Russian Air Force.

It should be a significant improvement on the Su-24, even in its M2 upgrade, and should significantly improve the strike capabilities of the fierce, particularly in night/adverse weather conditions.

Again, No Surprise

The single most important criteria determining whether or not a bank was bailed out by was the personal and political closeness to the Fed or to the Congress of its senior management:

A new study by Ross professors Ran Duchin and Denis Sosyura found that banks with connections to members of congressional finance committees and banks whose executives served on Federal Reserve boards were more likely to receive funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the federal government's program to purchase assets and equity from financial institutions to strengthen its financial sector.

Further, their research shows that TARP investment amounts were positively related to banks' political contributions and lobbying expenditures, and that, overall, the effect of political influence was strongest for poorly performing banks.

Hoocoodanode?

The process of bailing out the banks was an artifact of corruption and self-dealing.

H/t zero hedge

Here's a Surprise

Click for full size

---

Nearly flat for 2 years

One of the things that I have occasionally remarked on is how data for M3, one of the broader measures of money supply is no longer collected by the Fed.

The claim is that it's a conspiracy to conceal the reckless and inflationary expansion of the money supply, but as Tim Iacono shows, it hasn't really happened.

Basically, the Fed may be printing money, but banks are not lending, so the money supply, at least the money supply as described by the M3, is basically flat, so we are not in an inflationary situation.

To my mind, this is a bad thing, since, as I have stated many times before, increasing inflation will have the effect of moving the price many assets above the amount of money owed on them.

A description of the various measures of money, cut-and-pasted from the Wiki, is below the fold:

• M0: Notes and coins (currency) in circulation and in bank vaults. In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, M0 includes bank reserves, so M0 is referred to as the monetary base, or narrow money.
• MB: Equals M0 + reserves which commercial banks hold in their accounts with the central bank (minimum reserves and excess reserves). MB is referred to as the monetary base or total currency. This is the base from which other forms of money (like checking deposits, listed below) are created and is traditionally the most liquid measure of the money supply.
• M1: M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. Bank reserves are not included in M1.
• M2: Equals M1 + savings deposits, time deposits less than $100,000 and money market deposit accounts for individuals. M2 represents money and "close substitutes" for money. M2 is a broader classification of money than M1. Economists use M2 when looking to quantify the amount of money in circulation and trying to explain different economic monetary conditions. M2 is a key economic indicator used to forecast inflation.
• M3: Equals M2 + large time deposits, institutional money-market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, along with other larger liquid assets. M3 is no longer published or revealed to the public by the US central bank. However, it is estimated by the web site Shadow Government Statistics. It is also estimated on a weekly basis by the web site Now and the Future.
• MZM: Money with zero maturity. This measure equals M2 plus all money market funds, minus time deposits. It measures the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand.

Franken Rape Amendment Becomes Law

The 2010 Defense Authorization Bill was signed into law by Barack Obama about 2 weeks ago, and the bill included Al Franken's prohibition on defense contractors using binding arbitration to keep things like the rape of their employees by their employees out of court.

Since it's attached to an appropriations bill, it only runs for a year, so I would suggest a stand alone bill, timed to hit the floor in the June-July time frame to permanently close the loophole.

We'll see how many 'Phants want to vote pro-rape a few months prior to elections, particularly given the outrage over the pro-rape Republicans over Franken Amendment in the first place.

Army Issues Improved M4/M16 Magazine

Click for full size

---

The tan follower is the new magazine, and will be phased in as the older green followers are phased out. The black follower is to be removed from service immediately.

How the longer legs stabilizes feeding

Basically, it uses a more robust follower and a stronger spring to improve reliability:

The Army has begun fielding the new 5.56mm 30 round Improved Magazine that delivers a significant increase in reliability for the battle-tested M16 and M4 weapons systems. Bolstering the already high reliability ratings of the M16/M4 systems, the Improved Magazine effectively reduces the risk of magazine-related stoppages by more than 50 percent compared to the older magazine variants. Identified by a tan-colored follower, over 500,000 of the improved magazines have been fielded to units in Iraq, Afghanistan and in the U.S.

“With the improved magazines, we’re taking weapons reliability up another notch,” said LTC Chris Lehner, Product Manager Individual Weapons. “By incorporating a heavier, more corrosion resistant spring, along with a new follower design that does not tilt inside the casing, our engineers were able to develop a magazine that presents a round to the weapon with even greater stability. Increased magazine reliability results in overall improved weapon system performance.”

Note, however, that this only reduces magazine related stoppages, and does not address the issues with the M4/M16's sensitivity to grime, etc. and issues related to its gas tube operation.

Spotted: China flies air-launched cruise missile - The DEW Line

Click for full size

---

Shown here on an H-6M Badger

The Chinese Military Aviation blog (bottom of page) has reported that the PLAAF has fielded a cruise missile, the CJ-10K, which is based on the ground launched CJ-10, which in turn derived some of its technology from the Russian KH-55.

It appears to be very similar in size to the Tomawhawk and the KH-55, which is no surprise, and its range is in the 1,500-2,500 km range, which makes it roughly equivalent to the Tomahawk.

It should be noted that the H-6M Badger is significantly improved, significant avionics upgrades as well as modern turbofans replacing its thirsty turbojets, which give it a range in the 3,000-3,500 km range, which would allow the aircraft/missile combination to strike Alaska without refueling, and air to air refueling, which the Chinese are now doing routinely might allow a strike against Hawaii as well.

At about 9,000 km, a strike on the mainland US well out of range,though much of Europe would be in range.

H/t The DEW Line

So Not a Surprise

The New Economics Foundation has done a study on the economic impact of bankers, and claims to have shown that bankers actually destroy economic value:

Bankers should count themselves lucky they are being hit by a mere 50 per cent additional tax on bonuses, a new report argues today, because their benefit to society is negative.

The New Economics Foundation, a left-leaning think-tank, says that by contrast hospital cleaners and many other low-paid workers contribute far more to society and this should be reflected in their pay.

Although the NEF is far from an orthodox economic think-tank, its A Bit Rich report stems from standard public economics theory that the government should step in if people's value to society is remarkably different from their private value to an employer. The government already steps in, taxing everyone to ensure many jobs with high social value happen where those services would not be provided otherwise.

………………

The authors assume the financial crisis and recession would not have happened without City bankers engaging in risky, opaque and complex transactions. Applying a guess about the cost of the recession on the rest of society, they estimate top City bankers destroy £7 of value for every £1 they are paid privately.

If the figures are accurate, a rational government should shut the City. Naturally, the City disagrees and so does the Treasury, which sees benefits in properly regulated activity in the Square Mile.

This is something that ordinary people get, which is why the AIG bonuses and their ilk so outraged them: The point is not that these people are uniquely skilled, the Alex Rodriguez's of their craft, but rather that they are the "Marvelous" Marv Throneberry's of the world.

These people do not need to be retained, they need to be excised from the financial system.

It Was Drug Dealers Wot Saved the Banks.

I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on here!

The head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime is now saying that it was money from the drug cartels that kept the banks nominally solvent during the financial crisis:

Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.

This will raise questions about crime's influence on the economic system at times of crisis. It will also prompt further examination of the banking sector as world leaders, including Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, call for new International Monetary Fund regulations. Speaking from his office in Vienna, Costa said evidence that illegal money was being absorbed into the financial system was first drawn to his attention by intelligence agencies and prosecutors around 18 months ago. "In many instances, the money from drugs was the only liquid investment capital. In the second half of 2008, liquidity was the banking system's main problem and hence liquid capital became an important factor," he said.

There is no question: If a banker can launder drug money, and make money themselves from doing so, they will launder drug money.

Cue Captain Renault (see pic), and I do not expect any substantive law enforcement resulting from this revelation.

Another Nail in the Lead System Integrator Concept Coffin

As I have said before, with the LSI model, you have the contractor supervising their own performance, which is almost literally a fox in the henhouse:

Defense contractors developing the Army’s largest modernization program — the Future Combat System — also were paid $91 million in 2007 to report back to the Pentagon on how well the program was performing, according to a new inspector general report, adding fuel to demands for tougher conflict-of-interest rules.

The Nov. 24 Defense Department inspector general report, reviewed by POLITICO, was sparked by an anonymous tip. The probe found that the $100 billion FCS program contained numerous conflicts that went unreported and that, between 1987 and 2007, the Pentagon increased its reliance on contractors for quality assurance and other tests by 375 percent.

……………

For instance, SAIC, a prime contractor doing systems engineering along with Boeing, received $2.2 billion for development of the FCS program, but in 2007 it also received $25.8 million for testing the program. Computer Sciences Corp., General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman also received money to create elements of the FCS at the same time they were helping to test it, according to the report.

(emphasis mine)

I worked with folks from the SAIC when I was at FCS, and got very little "L" from the LSIs: they simply did not provide direction to the contractors.

It's no surprise that the inspector's report was marked "For Official Use Only", because the powers that be in the Pentagon want this buried, but someone, probably someone who actually thinks about the soldiers who use the product, leaked it.

Note that this is an artifact of a number of administrations:

In addition to pursuing specific allegations of conflicts of interest, the inspector’s report looked more broadly at the trend toward using services contracts for testing. The review found that before the 1990s — when the Pentagon embraced the trend of cutting government employees and instead contracting for services — the Pentagon spent about $8.9 million a year on contractors for testing. In 2007, it spent $42.6 million.

The Pentagon started doing this under Bush I SecDef Richard Bruce Cheney, though it is fair to say that it was expanded under Clinton, and went, as did defense procurement generally, completely haywire under Bush II.

The problem is that when you have contractors testing for you, they lie, they self-deal, and they cheat.

That's capitalism, baby: Cheating is a profit opportunity.

Unfortunately, the capabilities that the government has shed over the past few years will take much longer, but if the development of new systems is curtailed until the internal governmental testing capabilities, it will result in a exodus of people in private testing, because their jobs will be gone, and return to government.

Because Big Iron is Cool

A video of an Mi-26 Halo recovering a Eurocopter AS 532 Cougar after it made an emergency landing following battle damage.



H/t The DEW Line

If She Were to Bear Keith Richard's* Child

It would be immortal, and might have super powers:

A Sturgis woman had a blood-alcohol level of .708 percent, possibly a state record, when she was found earlier this month behind the wheel of a stolen vehicle parked on Interstate 90, according to Meade County State’s Attorney Jesse Sondreal.

A South Dakota Highway Patrol trooper discovered Marguerite Engle, 45, on Dec. 1 passed out behind the wheel of a delivery truck reported stolen in Rapid City.

Her blood-alcohol level was almost nine times South Dakota’s legal limit of .08 percent.

Checks with local and state labs where blood-alcohol levels are tested suggest Engle’s reading may be the highest ever recorded in South Dakota, Sondreal said.

Sondreal said a state chemist recalled a sample that tested .53, but nothing higher, in his more than 30 years on the job.

By way of comparison, LD50 for alcohol, the number at which 50% of the subjects die, is 0.40% BAC.

^*Richards' abuse of a myriad of substances is legendary, and his continued survival therefore puzzling. This led the comic Bill Hicks to say that, "I picture nuclear war and two things surviving: Keith and cockroaches!"

Security Theater

Bruce Schneier, once again, is all over it:

Our current response to terrorism is a form of "magical thinking." It relies on the idea that we can somehow make ourselves safer by protecting against what the terrorists happened to do last time.

Unfortunately for politicians, the security measures that work are largely invisible. Such measures include enhancing the intelligence-gathering abilities of the secret services, hiring cultural experts and Arabic translators, building bridges with Islamic communities both nationally and internationally, funding police capabilities -- both investigative arms to prevent terrorist attacks, and emergency communications systems for after attacks occur -- and arresting terrorist plotters without media fanfare.

It's very clear that many of the so-called security measures do not enhance security, but exist to create an appearance of security.

Just go read it.

Another Endorsement from Your's Truly

Marcy Winograd, who is running against Blue Dog Jane Harman in CA-36. I got an email from them, which means that they are hitting the "Q-list" blogs, which is a low cost high reward strategy.

After all, if you want someone's support, sending an email is a virtually free way of asking them for it.

It should be noted she ran against Harman in 2006, and scored a respectable 37.5% of the vote, and Harman has actually improved as a result of that challenge.

It should be noted though that Harman ran in the 1998 Gubernatorial primary as being, "the best Republican in the Democratic Party," so improvement is not difficult to achieve.

She is, and remains, a Blue Dog puke.

In any case, she is now on my Act Blue page, as well as having a direct donation page her web site.

Text of letter after break:

Dear Friends,

If you’re like me, one of your hopes for 2010 is that our government accomplishes a great deal more than it did in 2009.

Frustration has become the norm. Yet as we close out the year, you have a very specific choice to make: Do you allow that frustration to become apathy or action?

Will you support the status quo or those that believe better decisions can and should be made in 2010?

Please help me end 2009, literally and figuratively, by donating to my June 2010 campaign against Blue Dog Democrat Jane Harman in CD 36.

I have been a community activist for decades, fighting for education funding, affordable access to health care, worker and consumer protections, and the environment.

Nothing, however, is more pressing than the issue of jobs. We can and must reinvest in America – converting an economy currently based on making war overseas into one that makes better schools, roads, bridges, railways, and new Green Industries at home.

As we come to the end of the year – you can take action right where you’re sitting by making a decision to end Jane Harman’s 12 year effort to become the Lieberman of the House, largely serving the interests of large corporations and military contractors.

Contribute before January 1 to elect a true Democrat – not one who proudly accepted the label of “best Republican in the Democratic party.”

As I campaign up and down the 36th congressional district (West LA to San Pedro), I hear the same question over and over: “How are you going create jobs?”

I tell people we must fight for a Green New Deal, modeled after the New Deal of the Great Depression.

There is 200-billion left over from TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) that we can use not to bail out corrupt banks – but for common good: the creation of a sustainable economy.

While some banks may be reticent to accept the TARP funds, the aerospace industry is not. Its association has explicitly asked for 6-billion in TARP to create new jobs.

We can immediately contract with regional aerospace companies, not to build more bombs, but to create jobs in the New Green Economy. We need their engineering know-how and skilled workforce to build rapid transit and develop solar and wind resources that will make us strong and energy independent.

Jane Harman has spent too many years lobbying for weapons contracts, failing to expand the reach of aerospace beyond a permanent war economy.

We have only until Thursday at midnight to show people sitting on the fence that 2010 can be very different.

Help elect a REAL Democrat - a teacher, an anti-war leader, an environmentalist - in California's June 8, 2010, Democratic Party primary. Contribute before midnight Thursday.

With great thanks for your support,


Marcy Winograd

To donate, please click here.
To get updates, please click here.
Forward to a Friend

True Dat

Dreamworks Vs. Pixar Story Development:

Yet Another Artifact of the Bush Tax Cuts

If some rich guy dies in the next few days, it could get very ugly for his wife:

Spouses of those wealthy who die this year might find themselves with nothing if the family will isn't revised—a major wrinkle that could follow Friday's repeal of the federal estate tax.

As started on Jan. 1, estate taxes will be repealed for 2010 only. That means unless Congress acts otherwise, there is no limit to the wealth that can be passed on to heirs without incurring federal estate taxes through the end of the year.

But wills have often been written on the expectation that estate taxes were a fact of life for years to come, estate planners say. As a result, wills typically direct assets not subject to the tax be passed on to children—for 2009, up to $3.5 million—with the rest directed to the spouse.

"You could be in a situation now where everything would go into a trust downstream to the kids and nothing is left to the spouse," …………

So, in addition to giving heirs a motive to bump you off, you could leave your spouse without anything when you die, and if the taxes go back into effect, which is a highly likely scenario, you have lawsuits to claw it back.

It ain't just the Supreme Court where the misdeeds of Bush and His Evil Minions^™ will be felt for years.

How Quaint

The 9^th Court of Appeals has ruled that the police do not have the right to torture citizens they find inconvenient with Tasers:

A federal appeals court on Monday issued one of the most comprehensive rulings yet limiting police use of Tasers against low-level offenders who seem to pose little threat and may be mentally ill.

In a case out of San Diego County, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals criticized an officer who, without warning, shot an emotionally troubled man with a Taser when he was unarmed, yards away, and neither fleeing nor advancing on the officer.

(emphasis mine)

I'm sure that some will find this an outrage. After all, aren't police supposed to use potentially lethal force on people who don't comply immediately, like the kid who did not obey orders to get up because he had a broken back?

Hoocoodanode?

Needless to say, this cop still has his job, because, after all, law enforcement investigates itself in such instances.

The State Department Cover-Up of Blackwater Succeeds

Basically, the State Department used the Oliver North option, so by immunizing and debriefing them, they made a trial almost impossible, and the judge, U.S. District Judge Ricardo Urbina, was forced to dismiss the case.

Obviously, part of the problem is that the prosecution screwed up, though they can refile, but the real crux of the matter here is that the Bushies in the State Department intended this result. They wanted to protect Bush supporter Eric Prince and his company, now called Xe.

Republican Congressmen did this at the Iran-Contra hearings, because they feared that North would rat out Reagan if he actually ended up in prison.

Economics: Year End Data Points

Click for full size

---

H/t The Big Picture

The stock market is up significantly for the year, but note that the picture is for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is at best an imperfect gauge.

Also note that rents fell 3.5% in 2009, once you factor in things like months of free rent and flat screen TVs (!) for signing a lease.

That means that home prices need to fall an additional 3.5% to hit historical rent-own ratios.

But if the real estate news presages deflation, then the fact that commodities posted their biggest annual gain since 1971, which indicates that once a real recovery starts, prices may go up significantly.

Since, I actually favor inflation as a way to get out of this mess, people repay loans in devalued currency, and hence are better able to pay off those loans, I'm hoping for significant (6-10%) inflation in the near future.

Economics Update (For the Week)

Click for full size

---

Yes, it does appear that the seasonal adjustment for the week after Christmas is whack

The lede for the week is obviously that first time unemployment claims fell to the lowest level in 17 months, down 22K to 432K, though, as Brad Delong notes, this is likely because of problems with the seasonal adjustment for this week. (See graph pr0n).

Continuing claims, as well as the 4 week average fell too, but emergency claims, for people (like me shortly) who exhausted their regular benefits (i.e. out of work more than 6 months), rose sharply, by 199 thousand to 4.82 million, a 4.1% jump in one week. (!)

Earlier this week, the Institute for Supply Management released its Chicago index, aka the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and it unexpectedly jumped to 60 in December from 56.1 in November………Only they just revised it, and oops, it the PMI was only 58.7, largely on a downward revision on employment…………Happy, happy, joy, joy.

That's not to say that the numbers aren't better, they are better, much like the ATA Truck Tonnage Index November numbers, and the ShopperTrak year over year retail sales for last week, though the latter saw a drop in traffic.

In real estate, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to a 4 month high, 5.14%, which is still at a level which is historically low, and the recent uptick in housing prices seems to have petered out, with the Case-Shiller index showing flat prices in October, following 4 straight months of price increases.

This is unsurprising, as home price subsidy new home buyer tax credit was supposed to end in November, and homes needed to close by November 30, which meant that there were a lot of sellers who knew that they had to move their houses quickly, or not at all.

Houses are still well above trend, both in terms of rent to own price to income ratio, though you still have claims that housing affordability is better than the historical numbers, because the mortgage rates are still incredibly (see above) low.

If rates return to their historical levels, about 9% for the 30-year fixed, we have a downward pressure on house prices of roughly 1/3, because people buy houses on monthly payment, not price.

We do have some good international news, with South Korean exports rising rapidly, and Chinese manufacturing growing at a 20-month high, though I wonder how much of the latter is the result of provincial bureaucrats goosing the numbers, or encouraging local industries to over produce, in order to score brownie points with Beijing.