Well, we have another Asian economy cratering in Q4 of 2008, with Taiwan's GDP shrinking at an 8.36 annual rate. Unsurprisingly, they are now predicting a contraction for 2009.
This is "post Berlin Wall coming down shock-treatment elderly begging in streets" numbers.
In the US, producer prices posted a large gain, 0.8%, or about a 9½% inflation rate. I'm not certain if this is good or bad news, as the concern right now is deflation, but the impetus for the jump seems to be massive cash infusions from the Fed and the Treasury, which implies that we may be tiptoeing toward Zimbabwe.
Still, the jobless report was brutal, with initial claims remaining at 627,000, and continuing claims jumping to 4.99 million, the highest number ever.
I wouldn't expect manufacturing or building to be a part of a recovery any time soon though, as the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey hit a record low, as did the Architecture Billings Index (ABI).
Note that the ABI typically presages construction activity 9-12 months ahead.
Additionally, I think that we are near seeing some of the non AIG insurance giants failing, with the first indicator being that Prudential Financial Inc. being excluded from the Federal Reserve's commercial paper program, because Fitch Ratings downgraded them.
Note that Prudential Financial Inc. is the parent of Prudential Insurance, and that the insurance division can still use the "Commercial Paper Funding Facility," for a while, at least.
The dollar fell a bit today, largely on reduced concerns about the smaller nations in the Euro zone going completely broke.
In energy, oil rose, though it is still well below $40/bbl, because of a surprise drop in inventory.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Shift in Tactics in Employee Free Choice Act
It looks like labor has signed off on letting the measure start in the Senate, which will slow things down, because starting in the Senate slows everything down.
I'm not as sanguine about this is AFL-CIO spokesperson Eddie Val, who is quoted in the article. I think that Harry "Filibuster to your heart's content" Reid lacks the stones to make them talk, and so the bill will languish.
I'm not as sanguine about this is AFL-CIO spokesperson Eddie Val, who is quoted in the article. I think that Harry "Filibuster to your heart's content" Reid lacks the stones to make them talk, and so the bill will languish.
More Calls to End "To Big to Fail"
We are hearing more calls for breaking up the banking giant, this one from Rusty Cloutier, of MidSouth Bank, a regional institution.
Clouter, as CEO of a bank, obviously has an axe to grind, as the prospect of the banking giants getting massive bailouts makes it difficult for him to raise capital.
Right now, this doesn't seem to be on the agenda, but three weeks none of the very serious people in Washington DC were willing to discuss it as anything but a joke, but yesterday hell froze over, and Alan Greenspan, longtime friend of Ayn Rand, said that it was the least bad solution.
Hopefully, we will see this bubble up over the next few weeks/months.
H/t Calculated Risk
Clouter, as CEO of a bank, obviously has an axe to grind, as the prospect of the banking giants getting massive bailouts makes it difficult for him to raise capital.
Right now, this doesn't seem to be on the agenda, but three weeks none of the very serious people in Washington DC were willing to discuss it as anything but a joke, but yesterday hell froze over, and Alan Greenspan, longtime friend of Ayn Rand, said that it was the least bad solution.
Hopefully, we will see this bubble up over the next few weeks/months.
H/t Calculated Risk
Fire Robert Gates Today
There is a fight brewing about whistleblowers in government service, and Robert Gates is fighting tooth and nail to stop meaningful whistleblower protections.
This is more than a fairness issue, this is a national security issue. The government, including defense and intelligence, simply do not work, and much of this comes from a lack of accountability, which has gotten worse over the past 8 years because of secrecy fetish of Bush and His Evil Minions™.
Excessive secrecy is a far greater threat to our national security than is excessive disclosure.
This is more than a fairness issue, this is a national security issue. The government, including defense and intelligence, simply do not work, and much of this comes from a lack of accountability, which has gotten worse over the past 8 years because of secrecy fetish of Bush and His Evil Minions™.
Excessive secrecy is a far greater threat to our national security than is excessive disclosure.
Google Adopts Take No Prisoner Policy Against Patent Trolls
About 2 years ago, Google made a policy decision to stop settling law suits with patent trolls, including going after them for legal fees.
I think that we will see a lot more of this from companies with deep pockets, because paying people to make them go away has resulted in an explosion of law firms whose business model is to find dodgy undeveloped patents, and then use those to extract nuisance money.
It's a protection racket.
It's a good development, but the real solution is to change the law:
*The Copyright Clause of the Constitution, "To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries." (emphasis mine)
I think that we will see a lot more of this from companies with deep pockets, because paying people to make them go away has resulted in an explosion of law firms whose business model is to find dodgy undeveloped patents, and then use those to extract nuisance money.
It's a protection racket.
It's a good development, but the real solution is to change the law:
- Eliminate the patent court, because when you create a body that just handles patents, patents handle everything.
- Eliminate software, business plan, species, gene, and tax deduction patents (yes, you can patent a tax deduction).
- Note that genetic technology can and should remain patentable, it's the genes and the species that were not patentable until about a decade ago.
- Treat patents like civil rights laws, allow the person who is restricted by the to file suit against the holder of the patent.
*The Copyright Clause of the Constitution, "To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries." (emphasis mine)
Israel Demanding Shalit Return in Exchange for Truce
It's not going to happen, because if Hamas cuts a deal to release Shalit, even if it gets a truce and (somewhat more) open borders, it cuts its own throat.
Because Hamas' credibility comes in large part from its absolutist positions,* a negotiation which results in Shalit's release would be seen by many of their supporters as a capitulation and a defeat, and this would compromise their political viability, both in Gaza and in the West Bank.
The short form is that if Hamas did this, they would be signing their own death warrant.
*I was going to use the "takes no prisoners" metaphor, but given the situation here, it just doesn't work.
Because Hamas' credibility comes in large part from its absolutist positions,* a negotiation which results in Shalit's release would be seen by many of their supporters as a capitulation and a defeat, and this would compromise their political viability, both in Gaza and in the West Bank.
The short form is that if Hamas did this, they would be signing their own death warrant.
*I was going to use the "takes no prisoners" metaphor, but given the situation here, it just doesn't work.
Obama Announces Foreclosure Relief Plan
Like most of his approach to banking, it appears to be rather timid and too industry friendly for my taste, though it appears to be paired with cramdown legislation, which allows bankruptcy attorneys to modify mortgages, which is good, even if the legislation is too watered down for my taste too.
Colonel Renault Moment Hits the TARP....Again
I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on here!
Shocked.
Kyrgyzstan Makes it Official
The Kyrgyz ruling party voted to close the airbases.
It comes down to three things:
It comes down to three things:
- The Kyrgyz wanted a better deal.
- The initial deal mostly gave money to family the now overthrown despot, and the Kyrgyz were honked off by that.
- A Kyrgyz citizen was shot on base by a US soldier, and no meaning action was taken by US authorities against the soldier, inflaming local anger.
Economics Update
Well, I guess the lede is that the Federal Reserve is cutting its 2009 economic forecast....Reality has a way of doing that.
Real estate is ugly today, with housing starts and applications for building permits falling to record lows, which is not surprising as it's clear that there is a significant overhang in inventory.
That overhang in inventory is why builder sentiment is at the staggering number 9, with 50 being neutral.
It's not pessimism, it's sanity.
We did get another jump in mortgage applications, but that's just a refi surge when the numbers go below 5%.
We also saw a record slide in GDP for OECD nations in Q4 of 2008.
On the brighter side, I'm not in the Ukraine, where industrial output shrank by 34.1%, which is return to the stone age type numbers.
We also have record lows from Taiwan's central bank, which cut its benchmark rate to 1.25%.
We also have some insurance news, including our friends the monoliner bond insurers.
First, we have MBIA splitting itself. It's separating its municipal bond insurance from its mortgage backed securities interests, which is likely a good thing in the long run, though S&P downgraded them from AA to BBB+, which, while not junk bond status, is rather too close to junk bond status for comfort.
Additionally, Moodys cut ratings mortgage insurers MGIC, Radian, Republic, and Genwort.
We are actually seeing some indications that the price drops in commodities are dropping, most notably the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs has doubled recently, which indicates more cargo, particularly in terms of raw material.
Obama's housing rescue plan appears to have strengthened the dollar, and driven oil up today.
Real estate is ugly today, with housing starts and applications for building permits falling to record lows, which is not surprising as it's clear that there is a significant overhang in inventory.
That overhang in inventory is why builder sentiment is at the staggering number 9, with 50 being neutral.
It's not pessimism, it's sanity.
We did get another jump in mortgage applications, but that's just a refi surge when the numbers go below 5%.
We also saw a record slide in GDP for OECD nations in Q4 of 2008.
On the brighter side, I'm not in the Ukraine, where industrial output shrank by 34.1%, which is return to the stone age type numbers.
We also have record lows from Taiwan's central bank, which cut its benchmark rate to 1.25%.
We also have some insurance news, including our friends the monoliner bond insurers.
First, we have MBIA splitting itself. It's separating its municipal bond insurance from its mortgage backed securities interests, which is likely a good thing in the long run, though S&P downgraded them from AA to BBB+, which, while not junk bond status, is rather too close to junk bond status for comfort.
Additionally, Moodys cut ratings mortgage insurers MGIC, Radian, Republic, and Genwort.
We are actually seeing some indications that the price drops in commodities are dropping, most notably the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs has doubled recently, which indicates more cargo, particularly in terms of raw material.
Obama's housing rescue plan appears to have strengthened the dollar, and driven oil up today.
A Good Article on Why the CDS May Still Destroy US
This is a good read on why credit default swaps are destroying our financial system.
The money quote:
The money quote:
These are deliberate flaws built into the game that include the lack of a central counterparty, no effective limit on dealer leverage and a schizophrenic pricing methodology that has nothing to do with the several different types of underlying risk contained in these contracts. It is a market designed by and for the seller, to the disadvantage of the buyer. But CDS may also be thought of as a poker game where the dealers have few chips on the table.It comes down to excessive leverage, and the author, Christopher Whalen, is rather more of an optimist than I am about the outcome and how soon the mess will be straightened out.
Hopefully Jail, Absent That, Disbarment
Newsweek has gotten reports that the report from the Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR) of the Department of Justice on the legal opinions of Jay Bybee, John Yoo, and Steven Bradbury is a strong condemnation of their legal reasoning.
Among other things, it looks like, "the report could be forwarded to state bar associations for possible disciplinary action."
They pursued criminal charges against lawyers and judges in the Nuremberg trials, and they should do so here.
Among other things, it looks like, "the report could be forwarded to state bar associations for possible disciplinary action."
They pursued criminal charges against lawyers and judges in the Nuremberg trials, and they should do so here.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Hell Freezes Over
Yes, Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan is now saying that bank nationalization deprivitization is likely the least bad solution to the banking crisis:
Hint to Geithner and Summers, when Alan fracking Greenspan says it's time to nationalize, it's time to nationalize.
In an interview, Mr Greenspan, who for decades was regarded as the high priest of laisser-faire capitalism, said nationalisation could be the least bad option left for policymakers.This from a close friend, and acolyte of, Ayn Rand.
”It may be necessary to temporarily nationalise some banks in order to facilitate a swift and orderly restructuring,” he said. “I understand that once in a hundred years this is what you do.”
Hint to Geithner and Summers, when Alan fracking Greenspan says it's time to nationalize, it's time to nationalize.
A Better Video for the "Bailout Bonanza" iPhone Game
Again, no financial interest on my part, just a friend who runs the company.
I don't even own an iPod....I have a Palm Centro, running Palm OS.
I don't even own an iPod....I have a Palm Centro, running Palm OS.
Why Geithner Sucked on the Bank Rescue Plan Rollout
Well now we have an idea as to why Geithner's unveiling of the stimulus package sucked. According to the Washington Post, a few days before the scheduled announcement date, Geithner discovered that the plan would not work, and he had to change it.
He wanted to do his "bad bank" thing, but, as people have been saying for weeks, if you pay fair value, the banks are insolvent, and if you pay enough to keep them afloat, then you waste trillions of taxpayer dollars.
So, now we have the public-private partnership and "stress tests".
The question is whether he made this choice because he realized that he wrong, or if it was because he knew that he couldn't sell the bad bank.
Given Geithner's history, his last job was as an employees of those investment banks, I believe that he still wants to bail out the banks with no cost, but he hasn't been able to figure out a way to sell it.
Bill Moyers has an interview with former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson, and he says that we need to break the oligarchs who got us into this situation, just like the IMF did with 3rd world nations. (video and transcript at link)
I agree with Mr. Johnson onnationalization pre-privatization, and I do not believe that Timothy Geithner will do this.
His career has been made as a protege of people like Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin, and so he is joined at the hip to Wall Street.
He wanted to do his "bad bank" thing, but, as people have been saying for weeks, if you pay fair value, the banks are insolvent, and if you pay enough to keep them afloat, then you waste trillions of taxpayer dollars.
So, now we have the public-private partnership and "stress tests".
The question is whether he made this choice because he realized that he wrong, or if it was because he knew that he couldn't sell the bad bank.
Given Geithner's history, his last job was as an employees of those investment banks, I believe that he still wants to bail out the banks with no cost, but he hasn't been able to figure out a way to sell it.
Bill Moyers has an interview with former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson, and he says that we need to break the oligarchs who got us into this situation, just like the IMF did with 3rd world nations. (video and transcript at link)
I agree with Mr. Johnson on
His career has been made as a protege of people like Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin, and so he is joined at the hip to Wall Street.
Auto Industry Update
To get a perspective on just how bad the auto industry is hurting right now, look at this graph from Calculated Risk.It's monthly the total auto fleet in the united states divided by auto sales, which gives you the turnover rate, basically a measure of how long it would take to replace every car on the road right now.
It's gone from 10 years to 23.9 years, meaning that if this were baseline sales, the average age of the auto fleet would reach 29.9 years.
It's clear that something, either auto sales, or the number of cars on the road, or both, will have to give, but this is just nuts.
It's not surprising then that unions for GM subsidiaries in Europe want the car maker to spin-off of Opel and Saab. They know that they are viable, but that they will be sacrificed by the folks in Detroit.
So, while all this is going on, GM and Chrysler have to make their pitches for their recovery plan today, in order to get federal money.
At this point, there is only one thing that I know, any bailout should make Cerberus pay. The private equity firm that now owns Chrysler were looking for a quick flip on their investment, and they are unwilling to put any skin in the game.
As a first step, Cerberus must open its books to regulators.
Not Enough Bullets: TARP Recipients
So, after taking billions of dollars of money from the treasury, and trillions from the Federal Reserve's sh%$pile for cash program, we now discover that they are overcharging for federally guaranteed loans:
Also, the bailed out banks continue to maintain lavish offices, complete with office staff, for their recently ousted CEOs:
It appears to me that we have our own oligarchs in the United States, and we need to deal with them appropriately.
Unfortunately, I can't find Vladimir Putin on my speed dial.
Since the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. started guaranteeing debt in November, banks have charged clients, including themselves, more than $375 million in fees on $154 billion of deals in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Group Inc., which received $7.6 billion from the U.S. Treasury, paid Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co. 30 basis points, or $6 million, in December to sell FDIC-backed notes due in three-and- a-half years. A month later, JPMorgan and two other banks charged Freddie Mac 7.5 basis points for a similar offering.(emphasis mine)
Also, the bailed out banks continue to maintain lavish offices, complete with office staff, for their recently ousted CEOs:
Looking for Charles O. “Chuck” Prince, ousted 15 months ago as Citigroup Inc.’s chief executive officer? Just call his extension at the bank, which still pays for his office and secretary in Midtown Manhattan.Sure as hell beats working for a living, I guess.
Former Citigroup investment-banking head Michael Klein also has a free office and secretary after receiving a $34.3 million exit package when he quit in July 2008. John Reed, 70, who hasn’t worked at the bank since he resigned as co-CEO in 2000 with a $5 million parting bonus, is entitled to an office and secretary for as long as he wants.
Sanford I. “Sandy” Weill, who retired as chairman in 2006, is ending a 10-year consulting contract with the bank in April after just three years. The agreement gave him millions of dollars in perks, including an office, car and driver and use of company aircraft, which he gave up in February.
It appears to me that we have our own oligarchs in the United States, and we need to deal with them appropriately.
Unfortunately, I can't find Vladimir Putin on my speed dial.
Another Ponzi Scheme Uncovered
This time it's R. Allen "Sir" Stanford of Stanford International Bank, and once again, his take appears to be in the billions.
Someone still needs to explain to me how this guy is different from Angelo Mozilo.
H/t Calculated Risk
Someone still needs to explain to me how this guy is different from Angelo Mozilo.
H/t Calculated Risk
Ahhhh....Sweet Sanity
It appears that U.S. and Iran will be working together to combat the Afghan drug trade.
This is basic common sense. Diplomacy can be based on common values or common interests, and there is a common interest here: The Shias in Iran, and the Sunni Taliban hate each other, the Taliban going so far as to murder Iranian diplomats, and Iran as a huge drug problem, with supplies from Afghanistan at its root.
There is a common interest here, and it can be the basis of joint action.
This is basic common sense. Diplomacy can be based on common values or common interests, and there is a common interest here: The Shias in Iran, and the Sunni Taliban hate each other, the Taliban going so far as to murder Iranian diplomats, and Iran as a huge drug problem, with supplies from Afghanistan at its root.
There is a common interest here, and it can be the basis of joint action.
When Did Steny Hoyer Grow Some?
Because he is now leaning on Pelosi to take a tough stand with Harry Reid:
I'm not sure what is going on, but I'm not complaining.
House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) is pushing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to take a harder line with the Senate after a trio of Republican senators forced Congress to trim billions from the $787 billion economic stimulus package.(emphasis mine)
It’s not clear how far Pelosi is willing to go in standing up to the Senate — or, realistically, what effect Hoyer and Pelosi combined could have in the face of the 60-vote hurdle Senate Democrats face.
But after last week’s stimulus votes, Hoyer called on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to force Senate Republicans to mount actual filibusters if they want to stand in the way of bills “so that the American people can see who’s undermining action.”
....
I'm not sure what is going on, but I'm not complaining.
Economics Update
Only a few bits of news, besides the auto bailout update, which I will cover later, but they are fairly significant.First, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index hit another record low, though it has only been kept since July, 2001, so that's not an enormously long time.
On the other side of the pond, though we have rumors that Ireland is on the brink of defaulting on its debt, which could make things very ugly very quickly.
It would likely also trigger events that would lead to defaults by other nations, the Baltic republics and Ukraine come to mind, as a rush for the doors starts.
Oil is down again, and the continued flight to safety has driven the dollar up.
Filubuster Reform
There appears to be a lot of discussion on the blogosphere right now about how the filibuster.Some are calling for outright abolition, and some are calling for significant changes in the rules governing the filibuster.
I made a graph of cloture motions (Data from the Senate web site), and it speaks volumes.
The first thing to notice is that cloture votes did not break double digits until the 1971-1972 session.
I it was at some point in the 1970s (I'm unable to find it on "the Google", but it was at some point in the 1970s*), that people no longer had to talk to filibuster: It became a courtesy, not a rule, just the magnanimity of the Majority Leader that if a cloture vote failed, the legislation was pulled.
In addition, the requirements for the filibuster where changed in 1975 from 2/3 of those present and voting to 60% of all Senators in good standing (hence the issues with Kennedy having to show up on the stimulus).
There are a number of problems:
- A non vote should never be counted as a no
- What had been a measure of last resort until the end of the 60s has expanded to become a tool of electoral gamesmanship, and so has created a de facto 60 % supermajority to pass anything.
vote. (*cough* Janice Rogers Brown *cough*)†
So, what do we do about a process that has created the disgusting spectacle of a man with a brain tumor, another one having to rush home from his mother's funeral to break the filibuster, and Republicans admitting paying off the losing candidate in order to tie up the appointment of a Senator in court.
My opinion is that we start by enforcing the rules as they actually exist, and not accord the minority power that they do not have.
Courtesy is a two way street, and the abuse of the filibuster shuts that down.
Make them talk, and let them go hoarse, and have to stay in the Senate.
What's more with CSPAN covering Congress, the spectacle of Senators talking for hours and days will not only be broadcast locally on cable, it will find its way to Leno, and Letterman, and Jon Stewart, and they will look like complete tools.
If it's that important, they will still talk. If it isn't, they will STFU.
As to actual rules changes, that is a difficult thing to do, at least until one side or the other breaks 60 Senators, but I would suggest that the 60% be retained, but that it be of the votes cast, which means that those who support the filibuster need to stay in order to thwart it.
*Another reason to hate the decade, along with Disco, Polyester leisure suits, and pet rocks.
†F%$# you, gang of 14.
Yet Another Submarine Collision Update
The location of the collision (top) appears rather different from where it was indicated in my post yesterday (bottom).What the hell was a British boomer doing so close to French territorial waters?
Based on my eyeball scaling off of Google maps, it's around 100 miles off the French coast.
Odd.
Monday, February 16, 2009
On the Submarine Collision
It appears that French boats have gotten a LOT quieter in the past decade, because a decade ago, on Usenet, I heard many comments from former submariners who said that they were loud.
Background here.
Background here.
A Hipster???? I'm a Mechanical Engineer, for God's sake!
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot????
I think that there are still a few bugs in this test.
I think that there are still a few bugs in this test.
My Liberal Identity:
You are a New Left Hipster, also known as a MoveOn.org liberal, a Netroots activist, or a Daily Show fanatic. You believe that if we really want to defend American values, conservatives must be exposed, mocked, and assailed for every fanatical, puritanical, warmongering, Constitution-shredding ideal for which they stand.
Take the quiz at www.FightConservatives.com
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? Harold Ford?
It appears that someone in the Obama Administration is floating Harold Ford's name as the next Secretary of Commerce Nominee.
Admittedly, he didn't go as far as Lieberman in slamming Obama in the general, but he certainly came close, probably because he thought that he could be president one day.
He's where he is because he is a member of a corrupt political dynasty, and he's a political opportunists even by the standards of Washington, DC.
This would be asking for a knife in the back.
Admittedly, he didn't go as far as Lieberman in slamming Obama in the general, but he certainly came close, probably because he thought that he could be president one day.
He's where he is because he is a member of a corrupt political dynasty, and he's a political opportunists even by the standards of Washington, DC.
This would be asking for a knife in the back.
When You Give a Child a Loaded Gun
Let me be clear here, the metaphor implies no adult supervision, I am not making a comment on children and their parents going to the shooting range, or enrolling a kid in a gun safety class, or going hunting with the kids.
In this case, the metaphor refers to California, where a juxtaposition of heavily gerrymandered districts, term limits, and a requirement for a 2/3 super-majority to pass any taxes, have handed a loaded revolver to the most wingnutty of 'Phants.
Seriously, when you combine the unbalanced districts with the super-majority, and then throw in a dash of "no respect for the legislature as an institution," because they are limited to 6 years in the statehouse, and 8 years in the state senate, and you have a heady brew.
The Dems, and Ahnuld Schwartzenegger, need to have a club to beat Republicans around the head and shoulders, I would suggest an out of cycle redistricting.
To avoid the appearance of impropriety, have as a requirement, "The length of the borders shall be the minimum practical," which means that the districts will be mathematically as contiguous as is possible.
In this case, the metaphor refers to California, where a juxtaposition of heavily gerrymandered districts, term limits, and a requirement for a 2/3 super-majority to pass any taxes, have handed a loaded revolver to the most wingnutty of 'Phants.
Seriously, when you combine the unbalanced districts with the super-majority, and then throw in a dash of "no respect for the legislature as an institution," because they are limited to 6 years in the statehouse, and 8 years in the state senate, and you have a heady brew.
The Dems, and Ahnuld Schwartzenegger, need to have a club to beat Republicans around the head and shoulders, I would suggest an out of cycle redistricting.
To avoid the appearance of impropriety, have as a requirement, "The length of the borders shall be the minimum practical," which means that the districts will be mathematically as contiguous as is possible.
Chavez's Finally Gets Unlimited Terms
The referrenda results are not surprising.
The depressing thing here is not that Chavez is a slightly loopy man with no respect for Democracy.
The depressing thing is that even with that, he is still miles ahead of what were the ruling classes in Venezuela.
The depressing thing here is not that Chavez is a slightly loopy man with no respect for Democracy.
The depressing thing is that even with that, he is still miles ahead of what were the ruling classes in Venezuela.
Have You Heard the One About the Executive Compensation in the Stimulus Bill?
Well, it appears that the final version of the stimulus bill has restrictions on executive compensation, no "compensation incentives that encourage senior managers 'to take unnecessary and excessive risks that threaten the value of a company, no golden parachutes for senior management, "claw back" provisions to get money back from executives when they enrich themselves at taxpayer expense, and require (nonbinding) "say on pay" votes of the shareholders.
Sounds good, but it turns out that Congress gave the Treasury a year to draw up the regulations, and I'm sure that former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, and general Wall Street butt boy, Timothy Geithner (as well as Larry Summers) will make absolutely sure to take the full 365 days, all the while lobbying for a relaxation of the law.
Oh to live in the UK, where the Conservative Party is calling for a bonus limit of £2,000 (about $2800) for all bank employees.
Yep, the Tories....The party of Margaret Thatcher....Is calling for bonus limits.
Sounds good, but it turns out that Congress gave the Treasury a year to draw up the regulations, and I'm sure that former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, and general Wall Street butt boy, Timothy Geithner (as well as Larry Summers) will make absolutely sure to take the full 365 days, all the while lobbying for a relaxation of the law.
Oh to live in the UK, where the Conservative Party is calling for a bonus limit of £2,000 (about $2800) for all bank employees.
Yep, the Tories....The party of Margaret Thatcher....Is calling for bonus limits.
Schadenfreude
It appears that George W. Bush is having problems raising money for his presidential library, and has asked Karl Rove and his dad, George H.W. Bush to help get the necessary 5500 million to start construction.
...$500 million....For the two books that he's read in his life?????
Whiskey tango foxtrot?
...$500 million....For the two books that he's read in his life?????
Whiskey tango foxtrot?
Economics Update
Japan's economy contracted at an annual rate of 12.7% in the Q4 of 2008. Those are numbers more than a recession, they are near implosion, so I would take the Confederation of British Industry's prediction that the UK economy will shrink 3.3% in 2009 with a grain of salt.
The UK is far more dependent on banking and investment than Japan is in its economy, the Japanese actually make stuff and sell it to people.
A further indicator of the likelihood of a brutal downturn is that the companies in the S&P 500 just turned their first ever aggregate quarterly loss ever, with something like 400 of the 500 companies declaring a loss.
However, today was not without good news, as junk bond sales hit a 6 month high, which implies that people are no longer fleeing so strongly to safe havens like US treasuries, though there is still enough uncertainty to push the dollar and the Yen higher.
Still, demand concerns are driving oil down, even as retail gasoline prices continue their march back towards $2.00 a gallon.
The UK is far more dependent on banking and investment than Japan is in its economy, the Japanese actually make stuff and sell it to people.
A further indicator of the likelihood of a brutal downturn is that the companies in the S&P 500 just turned their first ever aggregate quarterly loss ever, with something like 400 of the 500 companies declaring a loss.
However, today was not without good news, as junk bond sales hit a 6 month high, which implies that people are no longer fleeing so strongly to safe havens like US treasuries, though there is still enough uncertainty to push the dollar and the Yen higher.
Still, demand concerns are driving oil down, even as retail gasoline prices continue their march back towards $2.00 a gallon.
What the Hell is Going On?
* Seriously, first an Iridium and a Cosmos satellite collide in orbit spewing debris all around the immediate vicinity, and now French and British boomers (SSBNs) have collided.This is just weird.The HMS Vanguard and Le Triomphant, each carrying 16 missiles, and an indeterminate number of warhead struck each other in the middle of nowhere:
Not only did it occur in the open ocean, as opposed to a choke point like a port or the Straights of Gibralter, but it was two SSBNs.
If one had been an attack submarine, I could see it, because you would have a "friendly" tracking exercise, but this is not the task of the SSBN.
Yes, I know about the story of the Leningrad elephant, but it's just weird.
*Tin foil hat image swiped from Attytood.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Not This Sh&% Again
Yes, it's the gifts that keep on giving, courtesy of Roland Burris and Rod Blagojevich, and not it appears taht Burris "forgot" to mention that Blago's brother hit him up for a donation before his appointment:
If Burris had any illusion about running for office in 2010, this needs to stop right now.
On a more personal level, please, just make it stop.
Senator Roland W. Burris of Illinois acknowledged in documents made public Saturday that the brother of former Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich sought campaign fund-raising help from him in the weeks and months before his appointment to succeed Barack Obama as the state’s junior senator.Please, just make it stop.
Mr. Burris said he provided no money to Governor Blagojevich’s campaign in response to the brother’s request.
The disclosure was different from Mr. Burris’s earlier descriptions, including one under oath, of his conversations with those closest to the former governor. It raised new questions about events that preceded Mr. Burris’s unusual appointment in late December and prompted some Republican lawmakers in Illinois to immediately demand an inquiry into whether Mr. Burris committed perjury.
If Burris had any illusion about running for office in 2010, this needs to stop right now.
On a more personal level, please, just make it stop.
The Rational Man is Dead
David Ignatius nails it, that the idea that the markets, unlike the human beings who participate, are somehow rational actors is wrong.
Actually, he's quoting Nouriel Roubini, who suggests that rationality from markets which are composed of irrational actors is actually irrational:
Actually, he's quoting Nouriel Roubini, who suggests that rationality from markets which are composed of irrational actors is actually irrational:
"The rational man theory of economics has not worked," Roubini said last month at a session of the World Economic Forum at Davos. That's why he and other prominent economists are paying more attention to behavioral economics, which starts from the premise that economic decisions, like other aspects of human behavior, are influenced by irrational psychological factors.The people who have suggested that the market is not self governing and self correcting, and so real regulation from industry, as Ignatius notes, this includes Keynes, are right.
The most compelling rebuttal of the rational model, paradoxically, was delivered by the ultimate rationalist, Alan Greenspan. "I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders," the former Fed chairman told Congress last October.
That's why Greenspan didn't see it coming, argues Daniel Kahneman, a Princeton professor who is often described as the father of behavioral economics. His rational-actor model wouldn't let him.
Bush Set Up Rape Rooms as a Part of the Torture Program
Just when I thought that this group of criminals have gotten me so jaded about their venality and corruption that they can no longer shock me, it now appears that they instituted rape as a part of their torture regime:
Oh my God.
Waterboarding is the least of it.
[ON EDIT: My bad, I left off the link]
Former Gitmo Guard Tells All(emphasis mine)
By Scott Horton
Army Private Brandon Neely served as a prison guard at Guantánamo in the first years the facility was in operation. With the Bush Administration, and thus the threat of retaliation against him, now gone, Neely decided to step forward and tell his story. “The stuff I did and the stuff I saw was just wrong,” he told the Associated Press. Neely describes the arrival of detainees in full sensory-deprivation garb, he details their sexual abuse by medical personnel, torture by other medical personnel, brutal beatings out of frustration, fear, and retribution, the first hunger strike and its causes, torturous shackling, positional torture, interference with religious practices and beliefs, verbal abuse, restriction of recreation, the behavior of mentally ill detainees, an isolation regime that was put in place for child-detainees, and his conversations with prisoners David Hicks and Rhuhel Ahmed. It makes for fascinating reading.
...
Third, the Nelly account shows that health professionals are right in the thick of the torture and abuse of the prisoners—suggesting a systematic collapse of professional ethics driven by the Pentagon itself. He describes body searches undertaken for no legitimate security purpose, simply to sexually invade and humiliate the prisoners. This was a standardized Bush Administration tactic–the importance of which became apparent to me when I participated in some Capitol Hill negotiations with White House representatives relating to legislation creating criminal law accountability for contractors. The Bush White House vehemently objected to provisions of the law dealing with rape by instrumentality. When House negotiators pressed to know why, they were met first with silence and then an embarrassed acknowledgment that a key part of the Bush program included invasion of the bodies of prisoners in a way that might be deemed rape by instrumentality under existing federal and state criminal statutes. While these techniques have long been known, the role of health care professionals in implementing them is shocking.
Oh my God.
Waterboarding is the least of it.
[ON EDIT: My bad, I left off the link]
About Fracking Time
I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on here!
Even more surprising is the fact that the prosecutors appear to be unloading some big guns against these folks:
The arrests were carried out by federal, state and local agents working in Iowa, California, Massachusetts, Texas, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and New Jersey. The government's action "is the result of an extensive, ongoing investigation into suspected H-1B visa fraud, mail fraud and conspiracy," said Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Iowa, in a statement. The investigation was dubbed Operation Pacific Vision.(emphasis mine)
So we are seeing both arrests and felony indictments.
It appears that the investigation centers on the borker (temp firm) Vision Systems, who placed people in high cost areas like New Jersey, but used the prevailing wage of its headquarters in Iowa.
It's a start. Better would be an H1B application fee high enough that it would remove the economic incentive.
Republican Thought Process
If the writers at Saturday Night Live have their fingers on the thought process of the Congressional Republicans, then they are spending so much times chasing their own tail that they remember a Kline Bottle.
If not, it's still funny as hell.
If not, it's still funny as hell.
Deployments Scrubbed from AF Promotions
In 2007, I suggested that perhaps we needed to abolish the USAF as an independent service, quoting the then Air Combat Command chief Ronald Keys:
Nothing but REMF's here sir.
The hardest wars we fight are not on the battlefield, but the wars we fight in the halls of Congress. They are fought in the Pentagon, they are fought in these programs, to make sure the money is paid and eventually the program is operating.Well, it appears that the USAF continues to see its most important role as a K Street lobbyist, because they are now scrubbing combat deployments from the records used to determine if an officer or senior NCO gets a promotion, so there is no credit for combat duty, because it's more important to lobby for bloated weapons systems.
Nothing but REMF's here sir.
Stimulus Heads to Obama's Desk
Thew had to hold the vote open in the Senate for 5 hours, because Sherrod Brown (D-OH) had to attend his mother's wake, and none of the Republicans had the decency to make an accommodation.
Charming to the last.
Charming to the last.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Me Bad, I Checked the Failed Bank List Too Early
There are 2 more failed banks:
Pinnacle Bank of Oregon, Beaverton, OR
Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company, Pittsfield, IL
This is in addition to the Sherman County Bank, Loup City, Nebraska and the Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, Cape Coral, FL, who made the list before I closed down on Friday.
Link to allThe trend is unsettling.
Pinnacle Bank of Oregon, Beaverton, OR
Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company, Pittsfield, IL
This is in addition to the Sherman County Bank, Loup City, Nebraska and the Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, Cape Coral, FL, who made the list before I closed down on Friday.
Link to allThe trend is unsettling.
Essential for Any Parent
My Liary, "A journal to record all my fibs, white lies, and larger distortions of the truth."It is for recording those times when one stretches the truth, along with turn of the last century (c 1900) cartoons, which appeals to me, since I grew up with the original illustrations of A.A. Milne's Winnie the Pooh, and so they feel comforting.
I got a copy from a reader, and as a parent, it proves useful.
Between the tooth fairy and Keith Olbermann, I have to keep what I say to the kids straight.
It's available for purchase at the link.
Pictures of interior below:
Sweet
Hats off to Patrick Rosario, who was in his basement when two people broke into his home and started stealing his stuff.
They didn't see him, he was in his basement, and so he called 911, and got out of the house, and then he noticed that the perp's van was there, unattended, with the motor running, so he stole their getaway van:
H/T Mithras.
They didn't see him, he was in his basement, and so he called 911, and got out of the house, and then he noticed that the perp's van was there, unattended, with the motor running, so he stole their getaway van:
Meanwhile, back at his home, a passing driver visiting an across-the-street neighbor saw the burglars exit the house. According to the detectives' report, "the males looked back ... and appeared startled."I am amused, but this was a really really stupid thing to do.
"I wish I could have seen the look on their faces," Rosario said.
The two fled the house toward busy Southeast Newport Way, leaving a pile of flat-screen TVs by the door, along with Rosario's laptop, game consoles and his wife's jewelry box.
...
Even as detectives took Rosario's report, the story apparently was making the rounds. Rosario said he received more than a few high-fives from other responding officers.
"Two pulled up, and they looked over at me and go, 'You stole their car — way to go, dude. That's awesome.' Another told me that I just made her month."
...
H/T Mithras.
Well, Here Is a Vote of Confidence
The Indian Army is refusing to induct the BrahMos missile into service without further tests.
My guess here is that the army is concerned that the 5000 lb supersonic missile won't work reliably.
Considering the most recent failure, and the generally spotty record of India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), I'd want some real testing to verify this too.
There is also an element of bureaucratic infighting too, as Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor was at that test, where he was told that it was a success, but he visited the target area, and saw that it was a miss, and then DRDO criticized him for telling the press that it was a failure.
Oops.
My guess here is that the army is concerned that the 5000 lb supersonic missile won't work reliably.
Considering the most recent failure, and the generally spotty record of India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), I'd want some real testing to verify this too.
There is also an element of bureaucratic infighting too, as Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor was at that test, where he was told that it was a success, but he visited the target area, and saw that it was a miss, and then DRDO criticized him for telling the press that it was a failure.
Oops.
Saab Hooks Up With Tata to Get Leg Up on MMRCA Deal
Well, Saab is certainly going all out on India's program to replace its aging MiG-21s, entering into a joint development with TATA for the Gripen NG.
While Saab claims that Saab VP Kjell Moller says that, ""The contract will continue irrespective of us getting the Indian order," I'm inclined to believe that this is primarily a quid pro quo.
While Saab claims that Saab VP Kjell Moller says that, ""The contract will continue irrespective of us getting the Indian order," I'm inclined to believe that this is primarily a quid pro quo.
Tactical Analysis of the Gaza Strip Combat
First a disclaimer, this is not an essay on the rightness or the wrongness of the Gaza operation. It is an analysis of the tactics used with an eye toward tactical lessons learned from the Lebanon war, and toward lessons that should be learned by the US military.
Think of it as the War Nerd, without the good writing.
Aviation Week & Space Technology has an analysis of the combat in the Gaza Strip (paid subscription required), and it's basic conclusion is rather unsurprising, though it's rather controversial in some military circles, that air force operations must be completely subordinate to the ground forces authority.
Considering the debacle in Lebanon in 2006, where the Chief of Staff was the first, and likely the last, Air Force general, and worked on the USAF model, basically the assumption that precision guided munitions delivered from altitudes in excess of 8000 feet could win the war, this is not an unanticipated change in tactics.
One need only look at Afghanistan to see that the Taliban's best recruiting tool is the USAF.
Some of the things that they did that worked on a tactical level:
Think of it as the War Nerd, without the good writing.
Aviation Week & Space Technology has an analysis of the combat in the Gaza Strip (paid subscription required), and it's basic conclusion is rather unsurprising, though it's rather controversial in some military circles, that air force operations must be completely subordinate to the ground forces authority.
Considering the debacle in Lebanon in 2006, where the Chief of Staff was the first, and likely the last, Air Force general, and worked on the USAF model, basically the assumption that precision guided munitions delivered from altitudes in excess of 8000 feet could win the war, this is not an unanticipated change in tactics.
One need only look at Afghanistan to see that the Taliban's best recruiting tool is the USAF.
Some of the things that they did that worked on a tactical level:
- Using retired/reserve air force officers physically in the ground units as liaison officers.
- Each brigade had a specific helicopter squadron specifically assigned to them, and under their command.
- One pilot from the helicopter squadron was physically assigned to the brigade's communication cell, and he conducted all communications with the helicopter squadron.
- A tightly integrated network to allow handoff from target identification to strike in less than 1 minute.
- The brigade teams had significant autonomy from the high command in Tel Aviv.
- Each brigade had its own dedicated artillery support.
- Extensive operations at night, to take advantage of the Israeli superiority in night vision systems.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Sony Releases New Stupid Piece of S@&* that Doesn't F#$%ing Work
It's The Onion, it's very profane, it's funny as hell.
Sony Releases New Stupid Piece of S@&* that Doesn't F#$%ing Work
Link
Sony Releases New Stupid Piece of S@&* that Doesn't F#$%ing Work
Link
This is a Natural Result of Private Prisons
We now know that hundreds, perhaps thousands of children were sent to private juvenile detention facilities because the judges got kickbacks, more than 2.6 million dollars, from the operator of two private facilities.
The judges in question, Mark A. Ciavarella Jr. and Michael T. Conahan have pled guilty, with a recommendation from the prosecutors for a term of 87 months.
It should be 87 years.
The particulars are an indictment of our culture of privatization of government services:
It's worth noting that these kick-backs are called "consultancy fees" when the IMF and the World Bank do this in 3rd world nations, and have frequently involved basic human needs like a municipal water supply.
It should be noted that Robert J. Powell, the owner of the two facilities involved, PA Child Care and Western PA Child Care, is claiming that he did not bribe anyone, but rather that he was shaken down by the judges:
I don't think so.
BTW, these folks might never have been caught, but for the fact that they were doling out favors to friends in arbitration awards, and the insurance companies cried "foul," and got an investigation.
In any case, they are now reviewing thousands of cases, and the federal prosecutors have petitioned the court to expedite notification to the victims.
Interestingly enough, the thing that seems to be bothering me the most involves a person who is not going to jail:
Why is this person still employed? Why are the police officers and prosecutors who did not laugh him off, or better still throw him in jail for harassment?
There is so much wrong here, that I'm beyond ranting.
The judges in question, Mark A. Ciavarella Jr. and Michael T. Conahan have pled guilty, with a recommendation from the prosecutors for a term of 87 months.
It should be 87 years.
The particulars are an indictment of our culture of privatization of government services:
With Judge Conahan serving as president judge in control of the budget and Judge Ciavarella overseeing the juvenile courts, they set the kickback scheme in motion in December 2002, the authorities said.So, private players get into the system, pay off the right people, and these people shut down the government run facilities, and take kick-backs.
They shut down the county-run juvenile detention center, arguing that it was in poor condition, the authorities said, and maintained that the county had no choice but to send detained juveniles to the newly built private detention centers.
It's worth noting that these kick-backs are called "consultancy fees" when the IMF and the World Bank do this in 3rd world nations, and have frequently involved basic human needs like a municipal water supply.
It should be noted that Robert J. Powell, the owner of the two facilities involved, PA Child Care and Western PA Child Care, is claiming that he did not bribe anyone, but rather that he was shaken down by the judges:
Robert J. Powell co-owned PA Child Care and Western PA Child Care until June. His attorney, Mark Sheppard, said his client was the victim of an extortion scheme.Let's see, you build jails for kids, and then suddenly they shut down the existing facility, because they think that you might bribe them?
"Bob Powell never solicited a nickel from these judges and really was a victim of their demands," he said. "These judges made it very plain to Mr. Powell that he was going to be required to pay certain monies."
I don't think so.
BTW, these folks might never have been caught, but for the fact that they were doling out favors to friends in arbitration awards, and the insurance companies cried "foul," and got an investigation.
In any case, they are now reviewing thousands of cases, and the federal prosecutors have petitioned the court to expedite notification to the victims.
Interestingly enough, the thing that seems to be bothering me the most involves a person who is not going to jail:
At worst, Hillary Transue thought she might get a stern lecture when she appeared before a judge for building a spoof MySpace page mocking the assistant principal at her high school in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. She was a stellar student who had never been in trouble, and the page stated clearly at the bottom that it was just a joke.Why is anyone who would criminalize a satirical MySpace page allowed anywhere near children?
Instead, the judge sentenced her to three months at a juvenile detention center on a charge of harassment.
Why is this person still employed? Why are the police officers and prosecutors who did not laugh him off, or better still throw him in jail for harassment?
There is so much wrong here, that I'm beyond ranting.
Election Update (Dear God!! Please, just make it stop.)
Maybe there is an end in site for the seemingly endless Minnesota recount because the election court just ruled on 13 of 19 cases where Coleman wants to include ballots, and ruled "no" on all of them.
So, I think that we are moving into the end game here.
So, I think that we are moving into the end game here.
Americans Want Accountability for Bush Torture
Though, interestingly enough, USA Today runs with the lede of Most want inquiry into anti-terror tactics, while Gallup goes with No Mandate for Criminal Probes of Bush Administration.
38% want a criminal investigation, 24% want some sort of "truth and reconciliation" panel, and 34%, the "dead enders," don't want either.
Sounds like a mandate to me.
FWIW, the numbers for investigation Attorneygate and warrantless wiretapping are even more in favor of investigating the matters.
38% want a criminal investigation, 24% want some sort of "truth and reconciliation" panel, and 34%, the "dead enders," don't want either.
Sounds like a mandate to me.
FWIW, the numbers for investigation Attorneygate and warrantless wiretapping are even more in favor of investigating the matters.
The EU Gets a Major Case of the Stupids
The European parliament's legal affairs committee just voted to extend copyright on music performances to 95 years. It was 50 years.
It has to go to the full parliament, but it's likely to pass next month.
Stupid.
This won't create any more performances, people don't perform in the expectation of revenues on year 51, so it won't create any more music, but what it will do is ensure that obscure works will be lost over time, because the difficulties of preserving and reproducing them will be too great.
Under the rules that they are proposing....Hell under the rules that they have now, Shakespeare's works would have been forever lost to decay.
They would be gone, but we have to protect the f^%$ing mouse for another 45 f^%$ing years.
It has to go to the full parliament, but it's likely to pass next month.
Stupid.
This won't create any more performances, people don't perform in the expectation of revenues on year 51, so it won't create any more music, but what it will do is ensure that obscure works will be lost over time, because the difficulties of preserving and reproducing them will be too great.
Under the rules that they are proposing....Hell under the rules that they have now, Shakespeare's works would have been forever lost to decay.
They would be gone, but we have to protect the f^%$ing mouse for another 45 f^%$ing years.
Not a Single Republican Vote
The U.S. House of Representatives passed the stimulus package, with no Republican votes....yet again....The 'Phants got your "bipartisanship" right there.
Good News In the Stimulus Package
It appears that whistle blower protections for contractors remains in the bill.
Good for Congress, and bad, I guess for Bath Iron Works.
It appears that attempts to strip out collection of performance data on drugs and medical devices have been defeated, which is good for all of us.
Good for Congress, and bad, I guess for Bath Iron Works.
It appears that attempts to strip out collection of performance data on drugs and medical devices have been defeated, which is good for all of us.
Karl Rove Subpoenaed … Again
He won't show up, and even if he did, he would refuse to answer questions.
Economics Update
Well, GDP in the Euro Zone fell by 1.5% in the 4rth quarter, and 1.2% from the 4th quarter of 2007.
The quarterly drop is the largest in 13 years, and the year over year drop is the first recorded ever.....One of the joys of integrating your economy is that you integrate your recessions.
It's no wonder that OPEC's predictions for world oil consumption have been slashed again, though interestingly enough, oil is up today, by the largest amount this year, largely on the expectation that the stimulus bill will pass.
In real estate, the New York Federal Reserve is continuing its aggressive policy of buying from the sh$% pile, purchasing another $23.2 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities this week, for a total of $114.96 billion.
There is an interesting bit here though, this quote, "The Fed has also said it may soon begin modifying mortgages it owns within the assets it owns."
Somehow I figure that this is part of a much bigger story, only I don't know what it is yet.
Also we have Citi and J.P. Morgan Chase Agreeing to a foreclosure moratorium, and I think that this might be a part of the rest of that story. Specifically, I think that they are worried about Geithner's "Stress Test," and they are doing this because they are hoping for goodwill from regulators.
Finally, the dollar is down today, for the same reason that oil is up. The stimulus package looks like a light at the end of the tunnel, and so the "flight to safety" moderated a bit.
The quarterly drop is the largest in 13 years, and the year over year drop is the first recorded ever.....One of the joys of integrating your economy is that you integrate your recessions.
It's no wonder that OPEC's predictions for world oil consumption have been slashed again, though interestingly enough, oil is up today, by the largest amount this year, largely on the expectation that the stimulus bill will pass.
In real estate, the New York Federal Reserve is continuing its aggressive policy of buying from the sh$% pile, purchasing another $23.2 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities this week, for a total of $114.96 billion.
There is an interesting bit here though, this quote, "The Fed has also said it may soon begin modifying mortgages it owns within the assets it owns."
Somehow I figure that this is part of a much bigger story, only I don't know what it is yet.
Also we have Citi and J.P. Morgan Chase Agreeing to a foreclosure moratorium, and I think that this might be a part of the rest of that story. Specifically, I think that they are worried about Geithner's "Stress Test," and they are doing this because they are hoping for goodwill from regulators.
Finally, the dollar is down today, for the same reason that oil is up. The stimulus package looks like a light at the end of the tunnel, and so the "flight to safety" moderated a bit.
OK, This Puts Some Context in the Gregg Withdrawal
It appears that Judd Gregg's intended replacement, Bonnie Newman, was facing strong opposition from the Taliban wing of the Republican Party, and was likely to withdraw, which would have given Democratic Governor John Lynch the cover to appoint a Democrat.
Gee, I wonder why the Taliban wing of the Republican Party would be freaking out about a life long Republican who just happens to be a 63 year old unmarried woman.
To be fair, I haven't found anything online about her personal life, except in comments on stories that "the Google" brought up, but there is a rumor out there, which would get Dobson and his ilk upset.
Gee, I wonder why the Taliban wing of the Republican Party would be freaking out about a life long Republican who just happens to be a 63 year old unmarried woman.
To be fair, I haven't found anything online about her personal life, except in comments on stories that "the Google" brought up, but there is a rumor out there, which would get Dobson and his ilk upset.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
This is Despicable
It appears that big pharma and medical device manufacturers are gearing up to fight a provision in the stimulus bill which would compare outcomes for different treatments, so that healthcare professionals would know how they compare to each other, they are claiming that it's, " the first step to government rationing."
The real reason that they are opposed to this is because selling people expensive s#@$ that does not work better than the cheap stuff is their business model.
The real reason that they are opposed to this is because selling people expensive s#@$ that does not work better than the cheap stuff is their business model.
Senate Intel Committee OKs Panetta As DCIA
It's not a surprise that they approved Leon Panetta as head of the CIA, it's just that the 'Phants had to spend a few weeks pretending to be important.
Update: the Senate approved him on a voice vote.
Update: the Senate approved him on a voice vote.
NPR Ombud Sick of Fox News Juan Williams
Well, the NPR Ombudsman has taken to completely disavowing anything Juan Williams says when he is on Fox News, and has notified her readers that, "NPR's Vice President of News, Ellen Weiss, has asked Williams to ask that Fox remove his NPR identification whenever he is on O'Reilly."
You see, when someone says that Michelle Obama has, "this Stokely Carmichael in a designer dress thing going," people tend to think that he's not a functioning journalist.
The truth is that he hasn't been one for a long time, when he led the lynch mob against Anita Hill, and neglected to mention that he had repeated allegations of sexual harassment against him, he stopped being a journalist.
Currently he's a freelancer, as the ombud made abundantly clear:
The problem here is not that he's on Fox News, so is Mara Liasson, it's that he's on O'Reilly, and he's stupid, and he's very eager to please, you could use Dr. Boyce Watkins term to describe him, but that brings in race, and I think to Fox and O'Reilly, it's more important that he's "NPR" than that he's black.
You see, when someone says that Michelle Obama has, "this Stokely Carmichael in a designer dress thing going," people tend to think that he's not a functioning journalist.
The truth is that he hasn't been one for a long time, when he led the lynch mob against Anita Hill, and neglected to mention that he had repeated allegations of sexual harassment against him, he stopped being a journalist.
Currently he's a freelancer, as the ombud made abundantly clear:
His "Stokely Carmichael" comment got the attention of NPR's top managers. They are in a bind because Williams is no longer a staff employee but an independent contractor. As a contract news analyst, NPR doesn't exercise control over what Williams says outside of NPR.When he wasn't, he was for a brief period on Talk of the Nation, but proved too damn stupid to handle the interviews....The show is on today, and it can still be lame, but he was painful to listen to.
The problem here is not that he's on Fox News, so is Mara Liasson, it's that he's on O'Reilly, and he's stupid, and he's very eager to please, you could use Dr. Boyce Watkins term to describe him, but that brings in race, and I think to Fox and O'Reilly, it's more important that he's "NPR" than that he's black.
Truth Hits the Autism-Vaccine Wacko Community
Well, a couple of days ago, it was revealed that doctor Andrew Wakefield's data on autism and vaccines were completely fraudulent, and now the federal vaccine court, which was largely created on the back of Wakefield's myth, has ruled that there is no credible connections between vaccines and autism.
As to the court case:
Wakefield, in the employ of vaccine litigation specialists, simply made up data:
As to the court case:
The decision by three independent special masters is especially telling because the special court's rules did not require plaintiffs to prove their cases with scientific certainty -- all the parents needed to show was that a preponderance of the evidence, or "50 percent and a hair," supported their claims. The vaccine court effectively said today that the thousands of pending claims represented by the three test cases are on extremely shaky ground.As to the despicable Andrew Wakefield and his 1997 article in the Lancet, this is more than just bad science.
In his ruling on one case, special master George Hastings said the parents of Michelle Cedillo -- who had charged that a measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine caused their child to develop autism -- had "been misled by physicians who are guilty, in my view, of gross medical misjudgment."
Hastings said that he was deeply moved by the suffering autism imposed on families such as the Cedillos, but that "the evidence advanced by the petitioners has fallen far short of demonstrating . . . a link."
Wakefield, in the employ of vaccine litigation specialists, simply made up data:
The research was published in February 1998 in an article in The Lancet medical journal. It claimed that the families of eight out of 12 children attending a routine clinic at the hospital had blamed MMR for their autism, and said that problems came on within days of the jab. The team also claimed to have discovered a new inflammatory bowel disease underlying the children’s conditions.You can see my earlier posts on this here.
However, our investigation, confirmed by evidence presented to the General Medical Council (GMC), reveals that: In most of the 12 cases, the children’s ailments as described in The Lancet were different from their hospital and GP records. Although the research paper claimed that problems came on within days of the jab, in only one case did medical records suggest this was true, and in many of the cases medical concerns had been raised before the children were vaccinated. Hospital pathologists, looking for inflammatory bowel disease, reported in the majority of cases that the gut was normal. This was then reviewed and the Lancet paper showed them as abnormal.
A Breath of Fresh Air for Drug Czar
Obama has selected Seattle Police Chief Gil Kerlikowske as the new drug czar and it appears that while he is 100% cop, and a heavy duty law enforcement guy, unlike previous heads of the ONDCP, he's not an insane drug warrior.
People who are looking at a more humane policy in dealing with drugs are pleasantly surprised by his appointment, as are legalization groups.
Specifically, during his tenure as police chief, he actually followed a law, initiative 75, which specifically deprioritized marijuana enforcement,* and kept the police from harassing needle exchange programs, which helps reduce AIDS transmission.
He's never going to be NORML's man of the year, and he's not going to call for legalizing weed, but he is remarkable improvement over the 'war on drugs' crowd that has done nothing but fill prisons with non-violent offenders.
*I-75 saw a decline in drug use as well.
People who are looking at a more humane policy in dealing with drugs are pleasantly surprised by his appointment, as are legalization groups.
Specifically, during his tenure as police chief, he actually followed a law, initiative 75, which specifically deprioritized marijuana enforcement,* and kept the police from harassing needle exchange programs, which helps reduce AIDS transmission.
He's never going to be NORML's man of the year, and he's not going to call for legalizing weed, but he is remarkable improvement over the 'war on drugs' crowd that has done nothing but fill prisons with non-violent offenders.
*I-75 saw a decline in drug use as well.
Is "Stress Testing" Spooking the Banks?
This is interesting. It seems that Timothy Geithner's announcement of a bank rescue plan sent big name banks into full panic mode, because it looks like Goldman Sachs held an emergency meeting, which included, "20 of the firm’s biggest hedge fund and private equity clients from around the country," as well as, "representatives of KKR, Fortress Investment Group , Bain Capital, Perry Capital, Capital Research, Putnam and Citadel."
While Goldman claims that it was a regular meeting, CNBC's report seems to indicate that this was not the case:
Where I think the reporter did not go deep enough is to accept the line from the participants that this meeting was primarily about concerns that the plan is not coming together quickly enough.
That isn't the sort of thing that has you call an emergency meeting. Something has them spooked.
My guess is that they are afraid that Geithner's "stress testing", which is a deep accounting analysis of their balance sheets, will show one, or more of the major banks (probably most of them) to be insolvent, and then the government will have no choice but to seize them.
I have this image of something resembling a meeting of Bond villains.
While Goldman claims that it was a regular meeting, CNBC's report seems to indicate that this was not the case:
Goldman sachs says the meeting was planned well in advance. But people who attended tell CNBC that they received the invitation after the speech and decided to attend because of the speech. Goldman Sachs initially denied that the meeting, hosted by co-presidents John Winkelried and Gary Cohn, took place.(emphasis mine)
Where I think the reporter did not go deep enough is to accept the line from the participants that this meeting was primarily about concerns that the plan is not coming together quickly enough.
That isn't the sort of thing that has you call an emergency meeting. Something has them spooked.
My guess is that they are afraid that Geithner's "stress testing", which is a deep accounting analysis of their balance sheets, will show one, or more of the major banks (probably most of them) to be insolvent, and then the government will have no choice but to seize them.
I have this image of something resembling a meeting of Bond villains.
Huh???? Judd Gregg Drops Out As Commerce Secretary
OK, this is a surprise to me, and it appears to be one to the White House, where a source described themselves as blindsided by Gregg's announcement.
The folks at TPM suggest that it might be that Gregg was the target of a wall of noise from the increasingly moribund Republican party in New Hampshire, or perhaps that the reason that he accepted the post in the first place was to run the Census, and Obama taking it out from beneath him made him change his mind, though this raises the question, "why now?" when it has been clear for a week.
I dunno, maybe someone has pictures of him with a goat. He's a Republican, after all.
The folks at TPM suggest that it might be that Gregg was the target of a wall of noise from the increasingly moribund Republican party in New Hampshire, or perhaps that the reason that he accepted the post in the first place was to run the Census, and Obama taking it out from beneath him made him change his mind, though this raises the question, "why now?" when it has been clear for a week.
I dunno, maybe someone has pictures of him with a goat. He's a Republican, after all.
Economics Update
Well, the obvious lede here is the weekly initial jobless claims, which dropped 8000 to 623,000, still well within OMFG territory, and the four-week moving average, which is to my mine a better and less noisy metric, jumped from 583,500 to 607,500, while continuing claims rose to 4.81 million.....Ouch.We have some more numbers for the real estate bloodbath too, with the NAR reporting that median home prices declined in Q4 of 2008 by 12.4% as compared to Q4 of 2007.
Foreclosures fell in January, but this is largely because the GSEs have put a temporary moratorium.
More telling is the fact that foreclosures and short sales accounted for 45% of sales in Q4.
Mortgage rates are down this week to 5.16%, which is still above the 4 and change percent from last month, so I do not expect this to do much to the market.
We do have a bright spot, with , it was +1% over December as opposed to the expected -.8%, but look as the chart on the right shows, it's still very grim.
It's worth noting that some of the increase is because retail gasoline prices have been trending higher (bottom chart), which along with increased spending for food and for clothing, were largely responsible for the increase.In currency, the Yen and the dollar strengthened as investors fled to their relative safety, and in energy, oil fell below $34/bbl on high inventories and low demand.
Competition For Thee and Not for Me
As part of his initiative to make state government more efficient, New Jersey Governor, and former chief of Goldman Sachs, John Corzine is is looking to mandate competition for almost all goods and services that are purchases.
But, there is one exception, municipal bonds....You know, where companies like Goldman Sachs make an awful lot of money managing the sales of these instruments, and competitive bidding does save money:
But, there is one exception, municipal bonds....You know, where companies like Goldman Sachs make an awful lot of money managing the sales of these instruments, and competitive bidding does save money:
Competitive bond offerings force banks to line up on an advertised day and submit the lowest interest-cost bid to win underwriting business. In a negotiated sale, states and cities decide in advance which banks will market the bonds. Underwriters have promoted the no-bid method, saying it allows them to get the best prices for issuers by tailoring the debt to specific types of investors.I guess that his buddies at Goldman Sachs are suffering under the restrictions Obama has placed on executive compensation.
Bid sales saved issuers 17 to 48 basis points, “on average and all else equal,” according to a study published in the Winter 2008 issue of the Municipal Finance Journal. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. On $100 million of debt, the savings mean $1.7 million to $4.8 million less interest over the life of a 10-year bond.
We Were Played By Hank Paulson and His Evil Minions&trade on TARP?
I think that we've all seen the video (below) where Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) said on CSPAN that there was a run on the money markets, and we were hours away from a complete meltdown of the financial system.
The money quote, if you don't want to watch the vid, is, "If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2 p.m. that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it."
The New York Post, the right wing flagship of Rupert Murdoch's media empire, and there are no on the record sources, though there is a cool graphic with Marlon Brando from Apocalypse Now (right).*
So, not only is the story completely based on anonymous sources, but there are no other contemporaneous reports of this happening.
Enter Felix Salmon of Portfolio.com, who looks at the underlying data, and finds out that it never happened. There was no massive run on the banks.
There were a lot of redemptions to the tune of tens of billions of dollars a day, not trillions per hour.
So, how did this bit of disinformation get out, and why did it get out to a paper not known for financial reporting in the financial capital of the world?
Inquiring minds want to know.
*As a purveyor of news, the New York Post sucks, but I do like their headlines and the way that they spice up their graphics.
The money quote, if you don't want to watch the vid, is, "If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2 p.m. that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it."
The New York Post, the right wing flagship of Rupert Murdoch's media empire, and there are no on the record sources, though there is a cool graphic with Marlon Brando from Apocalypse Now (right).*So, not only is the story completely based on anonymous sources, but there are no other contemporaneous reports of this happening.
Enter Felix Salmon of Portfolio.com, who looks at the underlying data, and finds out that it never happened. There was no massive run on the banks.
There were a lot of redemptions to the tune of tens of billions of dollars a day, not trillions per hour.
So, how did this bit of disinformation get out, and why did it get out to a paper not known for financial reporting in the financial capital of the world?
Inquiring minds want to know.
*As a purveyor of news, the New York Post sucks, but I do like their headlines and the way that they spice up their graphics.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!?!?!?!?
It appears that officials in the Department of Defense are denying Barack Obama access to information on Binyam Mohamed's torture and abuse.
No, this isn't a typo, someone in the DoD is refusing to turn over information to the President of the United States of America:
No, this isn't a typo, someone in the DoD is refusing to turn over information to the President of the United States of America:
Clive Stafford Smith, the director of the legal charity Reprieve, which represents Ethiopian-born Binyam Mohamed, sent Obama evidence of what he called "truly mediaeval" abuse but substantial parts were blanked out so the president could not read it.George Orwell and Franz Kafka are now spinning in their graves at sufficient velocity to power all of Belarus.
In the letter to the president [PDF] , Stafford Smith urges him to order the disclosure of the evidence.
Stafford Smith tells Obama he should be aware of the "bizarre reality" of the situation. "You, as commander in chief, are being denied access to material that would help prove that crimes have been committed by US personnel. This decision is being made by the very people who you command."
It is understood US defence officials might have censored the evidence to protect the president from criminal liability or political embarrassment.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Zimbabwe: Tsvangerai Sworn in as PM
So, Tsvangirai is finally PM, though, rather tellingly, his acceptance speech was not carried on state radio or TV.
Note that arrests by ZANU-PF aligned elements in the state security apparatus, and there is apparently an arrest order out for deputy agriculture minister nominee, Roy Bennett, and human rights lawyers have been placed arrested.
Meanwhile, treason charges against Tendai Biti have been dropped, which is a good thing, as the nominee for Finance Minister.
Truth be told, considering the state of finance in Zimbabwe, I might have gone with jail time.
On a less snarky note, Biti might very well be the person bets positioned to counterbalance Robert Mugabe, because he is the one who determines when, and how, civil servants get paid, and with Zimbabwe moving to abandon its own currency, the decision of who gets paid in $Z, and who gets paid in USD or Euro or Rand would be a very good way to create real disincentives for those agencies most willing to do Mugabe's dirty work.
There are some new structures in place intended to create a more transparent and less political state security apparatus, but I am not optimistic that this will make much of a difference.
Note that arrests by ZANU-PF aligned elements in the state security apparatus, and there is apparently an arrest order out for deputy agriculture minister nominee, Roy Bennett, and human rights lawyers have been placed arrested.
Meanwhile, treason charges against Tendai Biti have been dropped, which is a good thing, as the nominee for Finance Minister.
Truth be told, considering the state of finance in Zimbabwe, I might have gone with jail time.
On a less snarky note, Biti might very well be the person bets positioned to counterbalance Robert Mugabe, because he is the one who determines when, and how, civil servants get paid, and with Zimbabwe moving to abandon its own currency, the decision of who gets paid in $Z, and who gets paid in USD or Euro or Rand would be a very good way to create real disincentives for those agencies most willing to do Mugabe's dirty work.
There are some new structures in place intended to create a more transparent and less political state security apparatus, but I am not optimistic that this will make much of a difference.
Media Consolidation
Barry Righoltz's book Bailout Nation has been dropped by McGraw Hill, largely because he refused to soft pedal the ratings agencies role in the financial crisis, and McGraw Hill owns the largest of the ratings firms, Standard & Poors.
They claimed stylistic issues with his first description, which called the ratings agencies, "Pimps to the fixed-income fund managers’ Johns," which to my mind is a fairly accurate description. (He did come out with an alternate chapter, which, while slightly milder in language, was even more damning, because it was more extensively sourced)
As Mr. Ritholtz himself notes, "The problems came not from Legal, but from Corporate within McGH. Legal had not even finished reviewing the manuscript at this time."
If you wonder why newspapers and magazines are "dying", it's because of crap like this, where conglomerates allow other corporate issues to water down their content.
They claimed stylistic issues with his first description, which called the ratings agencies, "Pimps to the fixed-income fund managers’ Johns," which to my mind is a fairly accurate description. (He did come out with an alternate chapter, which, while slightly milder in language, was even more damning, because it was more extensively sourced)
As Mr. Ritholtz himself notes, "The problems came not from Legal, but from Corporate within McGH. Legal had not even finished reviewing the manuscript at this time."
If you wonder why newspapers and magazines are "dying", it's because of crap like this, where conglomerates allow other corporate issues to water down their content.
Fitz Staying
It looks like the US Attorney in Chicago, Patrick Fitzgerald, will remain the US Attorney for Chicago.
Good.
How about appointing him special prosecutor to investigate torture?
Sigh....only in my dreams.
On a more pragmatic level, I think that part of this is because Fitz's presence in Illinois goes a long way towards inoculating Obama regarding any further reports of corruption.
Good.
How about appointing him special prosecutor to investigate torture?
Sigh....only in my dreams.
On a more pragmatic level, I think that part of this is because Fitz's presence in Illinois goes a long way towards inoculating Obama regarding any further reports of corruption.
Senate Committee Approves Hilda Solis
If you recall the Republicans have been blocking a vote because they are demanding that she recuse herself from anything involving the Employee Free Choice act, even though a labor secretary is supposed to, you know, support labor, and passage of the bill is an explicit goal of Barack Obama.
After all this, she was approved by a voice vote in a meeting lasting perhaps 2 minutes.
The 'Phants are really a bunch of dickwads.
After all this, she was approved by a voice vote in a meeting lasting perhaps 2 minutes.
The 'Phants are really a bunch of dickwads.
Classier Than George W. Bush
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who after having a shoe thrown at him by Martin Jahnke, has, "requested British authorities dismiss charges against Jahnke and pardon him for his act of protest."
Yes, the Chinese have the moral high ground over George W. Bush, who appears to think that the arrest, continued detention, torture, and threat of a long prison sentence against his shoe thrower, Muntazer al-Zaidi does not merit comment.
Yes, the Chinese have the moral high ground over George W. Bush, who appears to think that the arrest, continued detention, torture, and threat of a long prison sentence against his shoe thrower, Muntazer al-Zaidi does not merit comment.
Not Enough Bullets: The Whole Damn Banking Industry
Tom Randall, Alex Nussbaum and Peter Robison at Bloomberg News talk about how awful the Obama salary cap for bank executives on the Federal dole is. Their lede:
So they are claiming that $½ million, "may not buy a seasoned executive for a major U.S. financial institution."
These are the folks who bankrupted the United States, and continue to pay themselves obscene bonuses.
Wanting to hire one of them for your bank is like betting on the Washington Generals when they play the Harlem Globetrotters.
I would also note that Mr. Langan's job is a lot harder than your senior bank executives. He has to deal with people who stalk the dancers, and how to handle security, and hiring responsible bouncers, etc.
Besides, who is hiring in banking right now.
Eric Langan could run a U.S. bank, based on his $494,713 salary last year, according to President Barack Obama. Langan would rather stay in his job, overseeing 18 strip clubs as chief executive officer of Rick’s Cabaret International Inc.Well, Mr. Langan actually made a damn profit in 2008.
So they are claiming that $½ million, "may not buy a seasoned executive for a major U.S. financial institution."
These are the folks who bankrupted the United States, and continue to pay themselves obscene bonuses.
Wanting to hire one of them for your bank is like betting on the Washington Generals when they play the Harlem Globetrotters.
I would also note that Mr. Langan's job is a lot harder than your senior bank executives. He has to deal with people who stalk the dancers, and how to handle security, and hiring responsible bouncers, etc.
Besides, who is hiring in banking right now.
The New York Times Blast Obama on Use of State Secret Privilige
Here
The Obama administration failed — miserably — the first test of its commitment to ditching the extravagant legal claims used by the Bush administration to try to impose blanket secrecy on anti-terrorism policies and avoid accountability for serial abuses of the law.And they are right, or course. It is disgraceful.
House-Senate Stimulus Bill Reports Out
That was fast, I think that the deal may have been negotiated on the way to the conference room.
Basic changes are (unless otherwise noted, changes are from the House):
*And I wish that she wasn't.
Basic changes are (unless otherwise noted, changes are from the House):
- Size, down from the $820 billion (House) to $838 billion (Senate) 50 789 billion.
- Retains the AMT tax cut put in by the Senate. ($70 billion, not stimulative)
- Cuts in grants for broadband build out in rural areas remains, but has been trimmed a bit.
- The Senate tax provisions allowing losses to be carried further forward by businesses was limited to only small (under $5 million/year receipts) businesses.
- The car purchase tax credit, proposed by my Senator* Barbara Mikulski which would allow consumers to write off interest on auto loans, was shrunk to just cover sales and excise taxes.
- The house flipping tax credits were trimmed. Instead of a $15,000/10% tax credit, the existing $7500 tax credit, which is actually a loan, it has to be repaid over time, was extended a year.
- Thank goodness, the house flipping tax credit was a really bad idea.)
- Individual tax credits were reduced from $500/$1000 per person/couple to $400/$800.
- Grants to state governments and grants for school repairs were trimmed from $95 bllion to $54 billion.
- Extend and increase unemployment benefits.
*And I wish that she wasn't.
Economics Update
The budget deficit is exploding, with the annual total now looking to be around $1 trillion:
Speaking of deflationary spirals, the trade deficit hit a 6 year low, not because we are exporting more, but because no one is buying anything.
No one is borrowing to finance, or refinance their homes either, with U.S. mortgage applications falling to an 8-year low.
Overseas, we have the Bank of England predicting that inflation in the UK will be ½% two years from now. Me, I'm expecting deflation, and the stagnant GDP that goes along with it.
The UK economy is even more heavily underwater, than that of the US, so it's likely to get even worst there.
Further east we have the Russian bond market completely seizing up.
In energy and currency, we have oil down on reports of diminishing demand, and the dollar up on reports that the conference committee has cut a stimulus deal. (More on that later)
The excess of spending over revenue in January rose to $83.8 billion, compared with a $17.8 billion surplus in the same month a year earlier. Spending gained 30.6 percent, while revenue dropped 11.4 percent. Corporate tax revenue in the past four months is down 44.3 percent from a year earlier, and if we weren't at risk of entering a deflationary spiral, I'd be concerned about inflation.
Speaking of deflationary spirals, the trade deficit hit a 6 year low, not because we are exporting more, but because no one is buying anything.
No one is borrowing to finance, or refinance their homes either, with U.S. mortgage applications falling to an 8-year low.
Overseas, we have the Bank of England predicting that inflation in the UK will be ½% two years from now. Me, I'm expecting deflation, and the stagnant GDP that goes along with it.
The UK economy is even more heavily underwater, than that of the US, so it's likely to get even worst there.
Further east we have the Russian bond market completely seizing up.
In energy and currency, we have oil down on reports of diminishing demand, and the dollar up on reports that the conference committee has cut a stimulus deal. (More on that later)
Maybe Because She Didn't Want Someone Ratting Out Bath Iron Works
It appears that one of the sticking points on the stimulus package was that Senator Susan Collins insisted on stripping whistleblower protections from contractors from the conference report.
Considering the history waste, fraud, and abuse at BIW, the largest private employer in the state, I could see how the distinguished gentlewoman from Maine might not favor transparency.
Considering the history waste, fraud, and abuse at BIW, the largest private employer in the state, I could see how the distinguished gentlewoman from Maine might not favor transparency.
New York Dems to Gov. David Paterson: Drop Dead
Well, it's clear that New York Governor David Paterson is in trouble.
First, he gets outed as releasing personal information about Caroline Kennedy in order to derail her Senate bid, and now Democrats are rebelling against his budget, because they think that it is stupid to slash services for 90% of the population to the bone in order to keep income tax rates on the rich low.
They are proposing an increase in state tax rates on earnings about $¼ million a year, from 6.85% it goes to 8.25% for $250-500K , 8.97% for $500k-1m , and 10.3% above $1M.
I think that the conflict here is that, following the support after Spitzer left office, Democrats are unsatisfied with Paterson, who has seemed to spend his time cozying up to the state 'Phants and to Wall Street with his plan or draconian cuts and tax increases or new taxes on sweet drinks and music downloads.
Why? Because he is either a liar or an idiot:
If they wanted to move to save a few bucks, they already would have done so.
Seriously, what are they going to do, move to New Jersey?
My theory is that he wants to have an enormous war chest when the primary rolls around to scary away opponents, and enormous war chest means Wall Street bucks.
Considering the performance of Wall Street in the public mind, and the fact that leading rival, New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, just announced in investigation of Merrill's recent bonuses, which both makes Paterson look like a turd, and Cuomo look like a hero.
First, he gets outed as releasing personal information about Caroline Kennedy in order to derail her Senate bid, and now Democrats are rebelling against his budget, because they think that it is stupid to slash services for 90% of the population to the bone in order to keep income tax rates on the rich low.
They are proposing an increase in state tax rates on earnings about $¼ million a year, from 6.85% it goes to 8.25% for $250-500K , 8.97% for $500k-1m , and 10.3% above $1M.
I think that the conflict here is that, following the support after Spitzer left office, Democrats are unsatisfied with Paterson, who has seemed to spend his time cozying up to the state 'Phants and to Wall Street with his plan or draconian cuts and tax increases or new taxes on sweet drinks and music downloads.
Why? Because he is either a liar or an idiot:
Another question mark concerns Governor Paterson. He has sent mixed signals in private and in public on the matter, saying on the one hand that he thinks raising taxes would cause wealthy people to move out of New York, and on the other hand that all options to plug the budget gap have to be on the table.Rich people live where they want, and New York City and its environs, and this is where the high-rollers live, already live in one of the most expensive places in the world.
If they wanted to move to save a few bucks, they already would have done so.
Seriously, what are they going to do, move to New Jersey?
My theory is that he wants to have an enormous war chest when the primary rolls around to scary away opponents, and enormous war chest means Wall Street bucks.
Considering the performance of Wall Street in the public mind, and the fact that leading rival, New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, just announced in investigation of Merrill's recent bonuses, which both makes Paterson look like a turd, and Cuomo look like a hero.
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