Economic Update

Wholesale inflation rose at the highest rate in 26 years, 26%, which would seem to indicate that the Fed won't cut rates, but they have to, or the market will implode, leaving nothing but a greasy stain.

The Fed auctioned off $30 billion in loans, and this time the interest rates were lower, 3.95% as versus the previous 4.65% and 4.67%.

The banks borrow this money, so that they can lend it out at higher interest, and make money on the spread. The interest rate has dropped because another fed cut is expected, and because the lenders are still retrenching, so they have fewer loans to make.

And Merrill-Lynch is selling another piece of itself in a bit to hold onto solvency, this time to Kuwait Investment Authority, a sovereign wealth fund.

And in real estate, San Diego County house prices are down 13.1% year over year, and the recovery in UK house prices is over, it turned out to be a dead cat bounce, as the UK house price slowdown continues.

Big Brother

Lovely, Mike McConnel, the man who says that waterboarding is torture for him, but not for other folks, because he has a deviated septum, is low looking for the power to, "read all the information crossing the Internet in the United States in order to protect it from abuse".

Sir, I am more concerned about your abuse of this nation than I am of any sick man with Marfan syndrome hiding in the tribal regions of Pakistan.

Judge Rules that Mississippi Senate Election Must Be Held in 90 Days

Haley Barbour loses one. The judge judge rules that the special election must be held sooner, rather than later.

In his order, DeLaughter said the election should be held "within 90 days of the governor's Dec. 20, 2007 proclamation of writ of election...on or before March 19, 2008.

Hood cited Mississippi Code 23-15-855, which applies to U.S. senator vacancies. He and Barbour have differing interpretations of that statute.

This is significant for a number of reasons:

• Special elections favor motivated parties, and the Democrats are motivated, and the Republicans are not.
• Barbour's appointee, Roger Wicker is largely unknown throughout the state, and it prevents the politicking to make him look like a real incumbent.
• The RSCC is broke, and the DSCC is flush with cash, and the election must be held before the RSCC can recover.

I'm doing a happy dance now.

2018

That's what the Iraqi Defense Minister said, he wants US troops in country until 2018.

To quote Ahnuld Schwartzenegger from Terminator 1, "F*^% You Asshole!"

NTSB: Design Flaw Caused Minnesota Bridge Collapse

The NTSB has determined that the gusset plate were under-size for the structure.

The interesting thing is that this is below spec for the 1960s, when the bridge was constructed. Since then, with more sophisticated analysis tools, the safety factors on designs have gotten smaller.

Judge Says to Include Kucinich In Debate

I'm not sure of the legalities, but he was offered a spot, and then it was withdrawn, and he had made arrangements to be in Las Vegas for the debates, so I think having him in the debate is the right thing to do.

It would appear that the judge made his ruling based on some sort of implied contract, and the public service requirement for broadcasters, but I'm completely unequipped to evaluate the law here, I'm an engineer, not a lawyer, dammit^*!

^*I love it when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!

In God We Tryst

Hmmm.....An 80 year old megachurch leader has been charged with perjury as a result of a sex scandal.

80 years old? I had no idea that the psalms were so "uplifting".

An 80-year-old leader of a suburban megachurch who is at the center of a sex scandal has been charged with lying under oath for saying he had sex outside marriage with only one other woman, court documents show.

A warrant for the arrest of Archbishop Earl Paulk, co-founder of Cathedral of the Holy Spirit at Chapel Hill Harvester Church, was issued Monday, according to court documents. ...

Former church employee Mona Brewer is suing Paulk, his brother and the church on allegations that Paulk manipulated her into an affair from 1989 to 2003 by telling her it was her only path to salvation. In a 2006 deposition stemming from the lawsuit, the archbishop said under oath that the only woman he had ever had sex with outside of his marriage was Brewer.

But the results of a court-ordered paternity test revealed in October that Paulk is the biological father of his brother's son, D.E. Paulk, who is now head pastor at the church. As part of Brewer's lawsuit, eight women have given sworn depositions that they were coerced into sexual relationships with Earl Paulk.

I get the sense that super-sizing your church has much the same effect on one's spiritual fitness as super-sizing one's fast food does on one's physical fitness.

Driving Times Editorial-Page Editor Andy Rosenthal, "Out of My F#@$ing Mind,"

When Maureen Dowd filed her story on the New Hampshire primary, it had a Derry, N.H. dateline, even though she was in Israel when she filed it.

In fact, she wasn't at the party that she discussed, she had some stringer do the leg work.

Well, the kerfuffle that has blown up over it has driven him, "Out of My F#@$ing Mind".

Accountability sucks^*, doesn't it Mr. Rosenthal. Spencer Ackerman notes that NY Times Reporter Rick Bragg was suspended, and then resigned after he did something similar.

At the very least, Ms. Dowd needs to explain to her readers.

^*And it is the accountability that blogs occasionally force on "real journalists", that gives them much of their value, and engenders the hostility of the "Kook Kidz".

Toshiba Trying to Sell HD-DVD Machines as Super DVD Players

By virtue of the depth of the layer in the disk (0.6mm), HD-DVD players can play a standard DVD without an additional lense (Blu-Ray uses a 0.1mm depth with a super hard coating to protect it, which is why it's more expensive), so standard DVD is pretty much standard on all HD-DVD players, and now Toshiba, following slashing the prices on their player, are attempting to sell their machine as a superior way to play standard DVDs.

"Major initiatives... are designed to spotlight the superior benefits of HD DVD as well as the benefits HD DVD brings to a consumer’s current DVD library by upconverting standard DVDs via the HDMI output to near high-def picture quality," the company said.

"With DVD upconversion via the HDMI output, HD DVD players instantly make a movie lover's existing DVD library look better than ever," it claimed.

Assuming I was wrong in my prediction that HD-DVD would win the format battle, I would say that this was a death rattle, though this might be a good alternative for people with large DVD libraries and large HD screens.

Me, I've never been impressed by HD-TV. I only notice the difference on really big screens, or when they are side by side, so my interest is purely of a sporting variety.

Obama's Right Wing Stimulus Package

I am woefully unimpressed by Obama's $120 billion economic stimulus plan. It's primarily tax cuts, the Republican way.

His plan for people who might lose their homes is a subsidy, when a better and far cheaper solution is to allow bankruptcy judges to modify the terms of the loan, as they do for vacation and rental homes. (It also hits the bad lenders where it hurts, which should be a goal).

I do approve extending unemployment benefits though, and the aid to municipalities who are hemorrhaging property tax money.

That being said, e have bridges falling down, and we need massive investment in alternative energy, and his primary thrust is cutting taxes.

A better solution is stepped up infrastructure repair, and money for alternative energy programs. The money these people will earn will be spent more quickly, and it is the velocity of money that causes a recession or a recovery.

I would note that his policy is not surprising given that Obama’s economic advisers are all wingers: (hat tip to Louis Proyect)

• Austan Goolsbee: U. of Chicago neoclassicist and “Sicko” critic ("neoclassicist" means Milton Friedman acolyte)
  
• David Cutler: Harvard economist who believes that high health costs are good for the economy
• Jeffrey Liebman: another Harvard economist and former Clinton adviser who favors privatizing social security

Considering who Obama is surrounding himself with, I'm beginning to think that his embrace of right wing memes is not a pose, but who he actually is.

Update: I do have to note, however, that Brad Delong likes Obama's plan, and he is an economist, and I am not.

Finally, a Contempt Vote

Well, according to the WaPo, the House is likely to vote on contempt against Josh Bolton and Harriet Miers in the "next few weeks" for their refusing to testify on the US Attorney scandal.

I'll believe it when I see it, but I don't see Pelosi having the guts.

We know what she said about impeachment:

NOT ON THE TABLE! NOT ON THE TABLE!
\

It's Called Oversight, Dude: EPA Edition

Why it's good to have Democrats in control of Congress, when the EPA political apparatchiks decide to ignore the recommendations of professional staff, and veto California's clean air standards, you have someone looking into what happened, and why, in this case, Henry Waxman.

Dear Administrator Johnson:

On December 20, 2007, I wrote to request that you provide the Committee with documents relating to your decision to reject California’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. I requested that the documents be produced on a rolling schedule, starting on January 10 with responsive documents from your immediate office. On January 4 and January 11, 2008, your staff responded to my letter, but did not provide any documents.

I appreciate the efforts EPA is taking to collect responsive documents, but I am concerned about the failure of the agency to meet the Committee’s January 10 deadline. I am also concerned that no schedules for document production are proposed in your letters.

In an effort to accommodate the agency without unduly delaying the Committee’s investigation, I ask that your staff work with Committee staff to establish by the close of business on January 16 mutually agreeable deadlines for producing documents to the Committee.

The Committee will also be conducting transcribed interviews or depositions of agency staff who may have knowledge of the agency’s deliberations. As a first step in this process, I request that a schedule be established by the close of business on January 16 for the interview or deposition of the following officials:

* Robert Meyers, Principal Deputy Assistant Administrator, Office of Air and Radiation
* Jason Burnett, Associate Deputy Administrator, Office of the Administrator
* Margo Oge, Director, Office of Transportation and Air Quality
* Karl Simon, Director, Compliance and Innovative Strategies Division, Office of Transportation and Air Quality
* Brian McLean, Director, Office of Atmospheric Programs
* Dina Kruger, Director, Climate Change Division, Office of Atmospheric Programs
* Rob Brenner, Director, Office of Program Analysis and Review

In prior investigations, the Committee has allowed counsel representing the agency to be present during transcribed interviews. In this case, since your own conduct is being examined, this accommodation would not be appropriate, although counsel employed by the agency may participate if they certify that their presence is as counsel for the witness. Attachments to this letter provide additional information about Committee interview and deposition procedures.

If you have any questions concerning this request, please have your staff contact Greg Dotson of the Committee staff at (202) 225-4407.

Sincerely,

Henry A. Waxman
Chairman

Mr. Johnson, it won't be pretty.

John Solomon Comes Home...To the Moonie Times

John Solomon has been appointed executive editor of the Moonie Washington Times.

As to why this is coming home, Talking Points Memo has the definitive word, "Here's what one former colleague of Solomon's said last week: 'I worked [X] years in the same office as Solomon, sometimes with him. The consensus: he's lazy, and takes hit jobs handed him on a platter by opps research teams (and anyone will do.) And doesn't do much to clean it up. I also know one of his fave and frequent sources is Barbara Comstock, former DOJ spxwoman and GOP attack dog.'"

In the Washington Post announcement of this move, he currently works for the Post, Mr. Solomon, ever the complete tool, says, "It's going to be about being fair and balanced". Straight out of Fox News.

BTW, if you want a rundown on a few of his misdeeds, Think Progress has the scoop.

Bush Does Not Care About the Facts

Yes, Bush has has disavowed the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that said that Iran has terminated it's nuclear weapons program, and that they respond to international pressure.

The ability to accept reality, and then change one's plans to accomodate it, is what separates the sane from the insane.

The Racial Aspect to the Campaign

The dynamic of the back and forth between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is interesting, and I think that Hillary had the better of the exchange, which, according to sources in both campaigns is now officially over.

Obama's campaign is designed around a goal, to prevent the voting public from thinking of him as an angry black man who cries "wolf" about racism.

As Ezra Klein and John Aravosis have said, this exchange undercuts Obama's primary message, that he is a new kind of politician who can bring people together, because people are hearing what they see as the same old tired litany (it's not really tired, because we are a bigoted society) of accusations of racism.

It also gives Charlie Rangel, whose civil rights cred is unassailable, an opportunity to call Obama's comments stupid.

BTW, if these little digs are causing a hiccup in Obama's campaign, just wait and see what would happen if he gets the nomination.

Republicans will take those accusations of racism as a badge of honor, and they will, as they have in the past, run a campaign of racist code words.

I fear that Obama would be dead meat in the general.

This Explains the Subprime Problems, Banks Cannot Use Excel®

Banks are petitioning theFinancial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to relax rules on non performing home loans. They say that the rules are too complex and difficult.

The rule in question, Financial Accounting Standard 114, "Accounting by Creditors for Impairment of a Loan", is also fifteen years old.

Before FAS 114, banks could count non-performing loans on their books as if they were to be paid back in full, which meant that defaults would almost never show up on the balance sheet until too late.

It should be noted that these banks that are crying that this is too difficult have been applying it without difficulty to commercial mortgages and corporate loans for the past 15 years.

You can do this in Excel^®, BTW.

This is not about complexity. It's about concealing losses from the public.

Iraqi Bill to Reintigrate Baath Party Members Appears to Be a Fraud

It appears that the bill is, " So riddled with loopholes and caveats to the point that some Sunni and Shiite officials say it could actually exclude more former Baathists than it lets back in, particularly in the crucial security ministries".

So my previous report on the issue is wrong, and al-Malaki is acting true to form and doing his level best to ethnically cleanse Iraq's Sunnis.

It's a phony success to create a phony victory in a real war.

New Build Tu-160 Blackjack Strategic Bomber Begins Flight Test

I think that this is another indication of how Russia is rearming, and I think that it is driven by a fear of NATO in general, and the US in particular.

Of course, this suits the Republicans just fine, because they want a scary opponent who justifies high tech white elephants like the F-22.

FWIW, "New Build" appears to be kind of a technicality. It appears that the aircraft was manufactured from a partially completed airframe dated from the 1990s.

JCS Chairman: Close Gitmo

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has said that Guantanamo is, "More than anything else it's been the image _ how Gitmo has become around the world, in terms of representing the United States".

He realizes that it does more harm than good, even if Bush and His Evil Minions^&trade don't.

Economics Update

First off, the Baltic Dry Shipping Index is falling off a cliff:

It's the shipping rates on the 24 busiest routes. On January 10, it dropped 4.6%, and it's dropped 28% from its November 13 peak. It's basically an index of shipping rates of bulk items, which in turn is a pretty good indicator of where the world economy is going.

It's going down, and it also indicates that the world economy has not "decoupled" from the US economy.


Then we have Citibank announcing a $24 billion write-down, (doubtless with more to come) , and announcing around 20,000 job cuts. What's more, the it appears that the government of China has suggested that it will prevent a multi billion dollar investment in Citi by the state-owned China Development Bank.

This indicates that China is getting twitchy about making US investments, which does not bode well for the dollar, which is currently at $1.4877:€1.0000, within about a penny of its all time low.

And then there is the fact that banks are unable to sell Chrysler financing, amounting to about $7 billion. It had originally been $10 billion, but they could not "syndicate" (sell) that debt toward the end of last year.

Wolfgang Münchau has an interesting analysis of the Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets, which go much farther and deeper than subprime, and appear to be in at least as much trouble. (A primer on CDS, which are the most prevalent form of derivative, here).

Münchau makes a point, and I'm not even sure he notices, when he says, "A truly awful scenario would be a long recession. The US did experience some longish recessions in the past, for example from November 1973 until March 1975, but there was no CDS market around at the time."

That's the point. This brave new world of complex financial instruments has created a tsunami which is now looming over modern financial markets.

We also have Robert Shiller, co-creater of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index saying that falling house prices have gutted the value of Countrywide Financial, which Bank of America just purchased.

When he says, "I might have a lower valuation of Countrywide than Bank of America does," he means, "Those idiots just threw money after bad."

I said the same thing 3 days ago, but obviously, I'm an engineer, I'm not an economist, dammit^*!

^*I love it when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!.

Meanwhile, In the Other War That We Are Losing

Six Seven people have been killed in a Taliban attack on a the only five star hotel in Afghanistan.

There were 4 suicide attackers, armed with AK-47s and explosive belts.

We took our eye off the ball in Afghanistan, where there are people who hit us on 911, to go after someone who didn't, and here we are.

Bush is Going to Keep Troops in Iraq

Yes, he says that he he is open to the possibility of slowing or stopping plans to bring home more U.S. troops from Iraq, which means that he's not going to bring them home.

He'll make some announcements, but when the tire hits the road, they won't be redeployed.

Why, because George W. Bush thinks that all that matters is "victory", which he defines as staying in Iraq, no matter how many terrorists are created, or how many troops are lost, or how many unstable nations move toward nuclear weapons.

It's all about him, and he needs to show that he's "brave and resolute" with other people's lives and other people's money.

We Are All Paying for Bank of America's $4.1 B Acquisition of Countrywide

Really, we are, because for this ill-conceived venture, we are giving BofA can deduct $270 million a year for the next 5 years.

That's $1.35 billion in the first 5 years, and if Countrywide's losses are bigger (and they are), they can deduct the rest year 6.

People With Way Too Much Time On Their Hands

Courtesy of Boing Boing

Another Republican House Seat in Play

Rep. Jerry Weller (R-El Guatamala^*) has decided not to run for re-election^†, and both the Republicans and Democrats are scrambling to try to get the seat.

It's been Republican for years, but appears increasingly competitive, With the vote being 46%D 43%R, and 11%Green in the last gubernatorial election.

^*His wife is the daughter of Efrain Rios Mott, wanted by the ICC for genocide against Mayan Indians in Guatamala.
^†He's financially tied into Mott, and has a history of shady Central American land deals.

Well, This Phone Has the iPod Beat

Justice Department Supports DC Handgun Ban

Once again, we find a case where all the NRA Republicans think that the 2nd amendment as they define it stops where they live and work. In their brief to SCOTUS, the Justice Deptartment has said that the appellate court ruling was over broad.

It's because these guys live and work in DC, and they are worried what will happen to them if black people are allowed to carry guns.

Gun control for me, but not for thee, I guess.

Toshiba Cuts Prices on HD-DVD Players

Some HD-DVD drives are now less than $100, and the newer ones are less than $200.

I don't think that it's going to make a whole bunch of difference, and that, to the degree that spinning optical media will be the future of movie distribution, it looks like Sony's Blu-Ray has won (I got that one wrong).

On the other hand, if you want a deal, and HD-DVD handles existing DVDs quite well, you might want to go shopping.

OK, Mukasey Actually Appears to Be Doing His Job

Well, knock me over with a sledge hammer, it appears that Attorney General Mukasey is actually doing his job, at least in what has become the minority voting suppression division of the Justice Department under Bush and His Evil Minions^™.

I'm pleasantly surprised, though Abu Gonzalez actually made me nostalgic for John Freaking Ashcroft, so it is a low bar.

First, John "Minorities will be Dead Soon" Tanner has resigned as head of the voting rights section, and is moving to the Office of Special Counsel for Immigration-Related Unfair Employment Practices in December, and last friday, his replacement, Christopher Coates, who was promoted from within the section, demoted Tanner's former deputy chiefs, Susana Lorenzo-Giguere (who drew a salary while living at her Cape Cod vacation home) and Yvette Rivera (who has been accused of discriminating against blacks on staff).

Of note is that Rivera is being replaced by Tim Mellett, who was one of the professional staff who issued a report, subsequently overruled by the political appointees , that Tom Delay's Texas redistricting was illegal.

Canadians Kill MP3 Player Tax

This report does not make it clear as to why the Federal Court of Appeal struck down such a tax.

There are provision in the Canadian copyright laws that allow for audio recording media, on the theory that they are means of distribution, but an MP3 player is not a means of distribution of music, but rather a means of consumption of music.

Simply put, people don't swap MP3 players, though obviously some people swap music files.

Torture for Thee but Not For Me

This is just so Orwellian. U.S. intelligence chief Mike McConnell is saying that if waterboarding were used against him, it would be torture, but refuses to say if this applies to other people.

The level of corruption, immorality, and cowardice of Bush and His Evil Minions^™ simply buggers the mind.

"If I had water draining into my nose, oh God, I just can't imagine how painful!" McConnell said in the article. "Whether it's torture by anybody else's definition, for me it would be torture."

But he rejected a suggestion that he personally condemned the practice.

I want my country back.

No Telco Immunity for a While

As a result of Dodd's activism against Telco immunity, Harry Reid has decided not to attempt to pass such a provision while Bush is still in office. Instead, he's looking at extending the last bill for another 18 months. (Note the article linked is a WSJ editorial, and so it is in many ways factually inaccurate where there are clear facts, and wrong in its analysis, read only if you have a strong stomach or an affection for dark humor)

Still, this is not good enough. The "Protect America Act" is an assault on the constitution and its principles. It should not be extended a day, much less 18 months.

Dodd is now out of the Presidential race, but in 2000, he lost to Daschle in a race for the Senate Democratic leader, and he should challenge Reid next time.

REAL ID Sucks

At least 17 are refusing to make their licenses comply with the REAL ID act.

It's not surprising. Given the recent data breaches, the requirements for REAL ID are an invitation to identity theft.

The requirements actually make the people less secure in their identity, not more so.

SCOTUS to Review McCain-Feingold "Millionair's Amendment"

When McCain and Feingold were writing their campaign finance law, they had to deal with the problem of self financing candidates. If a multimillionaire wanted to run, and spend millions of his own money, the court decisions had explicitly made it clear that this was protected by the first amendment.

Their solution was to allow candidates facing a rich self-funding to accept larger donations, which the Supreme Court will now be reviewing the case, Davis v. FEC, which affirmed the law.

Musharraf Fingerprints Increasingly Appear on Bhutto Assassination

First, the Musharraf govenrment is rejecting a U.N. inquiry, on the basis that "No foreign government was involved", though they have already fingered al Queida, a group of foreign terrorists based, at least in part in Afghanistan, and definitely supported by a foreign group, the Taliban.

Bag News Notes also has an interesting analysis, where they lay the blame at the feet of Condoleeza Rice, who thought that another "election", like those in Iraq, would show democracy on the march in Pakistan, but then she never followed up, and left Bhutto unprotected.

Cleveland Sues Banks as "Public Nuisances"

I do not think that this lawsuit against 21 lenders will succeed, but we know what my prediction record is.

I think that the judges will throw it out of court in the early stages, but if they don't, and it goes before a jury, I think that it will be far more likely that they will prevail.

That being said, the idea that major banks and Wall Street firms are being called public nuisances, "The Cleveland suit, filed Thursday in Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Court under the state’s public nuisance law, asserts that the financial institutions created nuisances across broad swaths of Cleveland because their loans led to widespread abandonment of homes," does represent an interesting change in attitude.

For the past 25 years, the rule for municipalities and states was to please Wall Street, and now these institutions are being view, accurately IMNSHO, as parasites and near-criminal enterprises.

Finally, Some Political Progress in Iraq

The Iraqi Parliament has finally passed a law allowing for low level Baath party members to return to government jobs.

In a one party state, the bureaucrats will be members of that party, and banning them all from public service was just one of L. Paul Bremer's many mistakes.

Of course, this should have passed in 2 weeks, but it took about a year and a half.

"Filipino Monkey" May Have Created International Incident

Said "monekey" is a prankster who routinely broadcasts stuff like the "Iranian threats" in that region of the world.

The US Navy, and the Bush administration, got Punk'd.

Then again, they are desperate to find a reason to go to war with Iran.

The $736 Million 1000 Man Stove on the Euphrates

Yes, after 736 million dollars, the State Department's Baghdad Embassy is a fire hazard.

In addition, the power plant and electrical has not been tested at all.

No surprise. A ¾ Billion contract handed out to a, "Contractor had never built an embassy and did not realize that under State Department rules it needed approval for substituting certain materials."

But I'm sure that they have a long history of contributing to the Republican party.

Blackwater Destroys Physical Evidencem

Here's a surprise, after flipping out and indiscriminately spraying civilians with bullets, the Blackwater mercenaries security contractorspatched and repainted their trucks almost immediately.

The repairs essentially destroyed evidence that Justice Department investigators hoped to examine in a criminal case that has drawn worldwide attention. The Sept. 16 shooting has strained U.S. relations with the Iraqi government, which wants Blackwater expelled from the country. It also has become a flash point in the debate over whether contractors are immune from legal consequences for their actions in a war zone.

They knew that there was going to be an investigation, and they knew that the physical evidence was important, and they still destroyed it.

This is a slam dunk for obstruction of justice.

Regardless of your position on mercenaries private security contractors, it's clear that Blackwater conducts their business in such a way that they should be shut down.

Of course, unlike the scariest bitch you'd ever want to meet, Martha Stewart, the management of the firm is Republican, so there will probably be no legal repurcussions.

Best Advertisement for a Self-Cleaning Toilet Ever

CPAP Update

My first night at home with the CPAP went fairly well.

This is the 3rd time that I've tried this, the first two times were at sleep centers.

The first time was a disaster, with me feeling like I was choking as I drifted off to sleep, and the second time, I think that I had a less ham-handed tech running things, so it went fairly well.

The CPAP did wake me up a couple of times, but I think that it's just a matter of getting used to it, though I am grateful that this model has a ramp up mode, so when trying to go to sleep, it starts slow, and builds up pressure, in my case 7cm water gauge, which helps me drift off.

My wife didn't notice any slower, and I was not feeling significantly more refreshed when I woke up than I normally do, but I'm told that this takes time.

I Had His Liver With Some Fava Beans and a Glass of Chianti

Ok, I'm not Hannibal Lechter, though, I just have a snoring and apnea problem, so I've got myself a CPAP kit, with mask.

Hell Freezes Over

Snow in Baghdad.

No global warming, my ass.

Wanker of the Day: Lawrence O'Donnell

If you have a strong stomache, read his his entry in the Huffington Post.

I understand the calls of various people for Edwards to drop out so as to benefit a particular candidate. That's politics, but the reasons he gives are stupid, and insulting to Barack Obama, John Edwards, and the whole south.

If John Edwards stays in the race, he might, in the end, become nothing other than the Southern white man who stood in the way of the black man. And for that, he would deserve a lifetime of liberal condemnation.

Jane Smiley replied on HuffPo. It's titled, Shut Up, Larry. Word up, Jane.

Pirate Bay.org Being Hauled into Court Again

Swedish law is fairly lax, and my guess is that they proprietors of the site will win.

They are are being charged with conspiracy to breach copyrights.

Considering the fact that , "seven parliamentarians from the ruling conservative party called in a newspaper opinion article last month for the decriminalization of file sharing.", and the fact that the Pirate party has more members than the Greens, I'm not surprised that they are relying on public defenders.

This is being driven by the US, and everyone knows it.

Well, That Was Quick

Just this morning, I suggested that Bank of America's purchase of Countrywide was throwing good money after bad.

It appears that Moody's Investors Service things the same way, they are considering downgrading B of A.

Barry Ritholtz makes the same point, using Dennis Gartman's #1 rule of trading:

1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position... not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading's carcinogen; it is trading's driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin

After that initial disastrous buy in at $18-20, BoA is doubling up -- at $6 . . .

Maybe I need to change banks.

14%

MBIA, one of the largest bond insurers in the nation, is floating a debt sale. The problem is that no one is buying, so it looks like they will have to pay 14% on the money that they borrow.

This is an AAA rated company, and they need 14%. That's (low) credit card rates.

Any claims as to the end of the credit crunch are premature.

Giuliani Staffers Go Without Pay

Put a fork in him. He is done.

What the Press Did in New Hampshire

Joe Conason has a good if to my mind too gentle on what happened with the press in New Hampshire:

The angry Clinton haters in the press corps suffer from the same flat learning curve as Wile E. Coyote. They don't understand why their Acme arsenal never quite does the job, and instead often leaves them with grimy faces and aching heads.

The problem is that these guys behave as if they are a high school clique, and the journalistic community has very little concern about accuracy.

Illegal Aliens Kill Unionization Drive

I found this little tidbit in a story about cutbacks and layoffs in the newspaper industry:

A few years ago, he said, some drivers talked about organizing, but the idea went nowhere. The problem, he went on, is that on the north side, 80 to 90 percent of the drivers are in the United States illegally. I have no idea if that number’s accurate, but I believed him when he said he’s one of them. “When you are illegal in this country you have to be patient,” the English-speaking driver explained. “So I think that is one of the reasons—they need the money, they have no papers to work, that’s why they keep quiet. They know if they complain they will get fired. We think the main Tribune, they don’t know nothing about this.”

Apparently they don’t. Tribune spokesman Michael Dizon e-mailed me that “it is against Chicago Tribune policy to publicly discuss how fees for delivery services are negotiated.” But he added, “Our company does not hire undocumented workers to deliver our newspapers. Tribune Company contracts with independent businesses to deliver products. In turn each independent contractor enters into his or her own contracts with sub-contractors to perform delivery results.”

This is why the US is so schizophrenic on illegal aliens. The powers that be use them to drive down wages and prevent union activities, which they like (and any guest worker program has the same effect), but the average American understands that it's against the law.

That's why, when I made some proposals about deterring illegal immigration, they focused on the demand from employers.

TSA Detains 5 Year Old

Good for them. How do you know that this kid wasn't a a Jihadist with a glandular condition?

Seriously though, this does no one any good:

When his mother went to pick him up and hug him and comfort him during the proceedings, she was told not to touch him because he was a national security risk. They also had to frisk her again to make sure the little Dillinger hadn't passed anything dangerous weapons or materials to his mother when she hugged him.

Lennar Sellls 11,000 Properties at 40¢ on the Dollar

Tell me that Bloomberg.com: the bubble is bottoming out.

Morgan Stanley real estate bought a stake in 11,000 properties at a 60% discount.

What Markos Says

Kos has a good history of Republican shenanigans in Michigan's open primary, and suggests that Dems vote for Romney this time around, since the two Dem Choices are Hillary, and no choice.

Under Michigan's system, you can vote a Republican primary choice for president, and vote Democratic down ticket, where you care about the alternatives on the ballot.

Thailand to Buy Gripen

The Thai cabinet has approved the purchase of 6 of the aircraft.

In the long run, I see the Gripen as being an export success, because it's the smallest, lightest, and cheapest aircraft of its generation.

Bank of America to Buy Countrywide

Their press release is here.

Bank of America Corporation today announced a definitive agreement to purchase Countrywide Financial Corp. in an all-stock transaction worth approximately $4 billion.

Basically, BoA just bought Countrywide for some magic beans. It's all funny money, unless, of course, if you are a shareholder, in which case, your stake in BoA is diminished.

Still a losing proposition, I think, particularly since the insolvent Countrywide will place downward pressure on the BoA stock price.

Australia Looking at Procuring Russian Fighters

I think that this is more gamesmanship than anything else. The Australian militaryreally want the F-22, but it has not been cleared for export, so so they claiming that they are evaluating the MiG-29 and the Su-35.

The Australians are not happy about having the buy the F-35 JSF, because it lacks the agility that they want, and because there are serious scheduling and budget issues.

The new defence minister has meanwhile warned that Canberra will not tolerate further delays or an increase in the cost of the F-35.

Additionally, Australia is making noises about canceling its $5.8 billion purchase of 24 F/A-18 E/F "Superhornets" as a part or reevaluating their defense needs.

My assessment is that they are playing chicken in an attempt to get the US Congress to change the law that prevents F-22 exports, though even with that hurdle taken care of, the development costs of an export version looks to be around $1 billion.

Sometimes, The Jokes Write Themselves

Anne Rice has endorsed Hillary Clinton.

There is a symmetry here between an author who made her name writing of the undead, and the Clinton endorsement that I find....amusing.

Deep Thoughts

Some people are like Slinkies. not really good for anything but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs.

-- Source unknown

Sir Edmond Hillary Dead

Sir Edmond Hillary,the first man, along with his Sherpa Tenzing Norgay, the first men on the summit of Everest (they always maintained that they went to the summit together) has died. He was 88.

He was one tough (and modest) Kiwi.

Read the article...He did a lot more than just climb Everest.

I did consider posting the article without the "Sir Edmond" part in the title, just to get a reaction, but it turns out that even I have limits on how tasteless I can be.

Word Up!

Paul Krugman has the definitive word on the whole "misty eyed Hillary" thing, "I think this thing does call for some serious psychological analysis, not of the candidate — who looked and sounded like a normal person — but of the pundits who have turned Hillary into the object of their obsession."

This is Harsh

Well, it looks like the Republicans are starting to swift boat each other, as shown by this anti-Huckabee ad, put out by Victims Voice, a 527 with unknown funding.

The principal of the organization, one Keith Emis, claims that it was done by him and a friend, and that they only spent money on tape and gas, but I think that this is too well produced for that.



Of course, the whole story shows a startling lack of unawareness. The cheerleader who was raped was a distant cousin of Bill Clinton, so there was a great hue and cry from the right wing that Wayne Dumond was railroaded because of who was governor at the time.

Mike Huckabee set him free, but he did so because a lot of people, many of them not in Arkansas pressured him, because it doesn't matter if you are raped, if you are related to Bill Clinton.

New Ultra Capacitor Technology

I read a report about Lockheed-Martin signing a contract with a company called EEstore to get exclusive rights to their ultra-capacitor technology in defense and homeland security applications.

I've done a bit of looking around, there is a Wiki Page, and if it does 1/10 of what they say it does, it's impressive tech.

The advantages of Capacitors over batteries are:

• Fast Charging
• Fast Discharging
• Basically never wear out.

The disadvantages are:

• They can lose their stored energy over time, though this can be a long time, as anyone who has been knocked on their ass after opening up a junkyard TV can attest. (This tech is supposed to have self-discharge rate of 0.1% per month)
• Low power density.

This technology looks very impressive:

These units use barium titanate coated with aluminum oxide and glass to achieve a level of capacitance claimed to be much higher than what is currently available in the market. The claimed energy density is 1.0 MJ/kg (existing commercial supercapacitors typically have an energy density of the order of 0.01 MJ/kg and a lithium ion battery has an energy density of 0.54–0.72 MJ/kg).

Maxwell technology has ultracapacitors on the market, and their website has peformance of 3.29 Wh/kg, or about .01MJ/KG.

More Tonkin

So, the military is now backing off on the charge that the Iranians were broadcasting threatening messages, and now, no mentions of boxes going over the sides.

John Doolittle (R-CA) To Retire

So, he's retiring, with investigations into his ties to Abramoff, Wilkes (Randy "Duke" Cunningham), and his wife getting a cut of campaign contributions.

In Retrospect, a REALLY Bad Ad

Hat tip to Danger Room for finding this 1979 ad for Pakistan International Airlines:


This is really, really, really, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY creepy.

Quote of the Day: Will "Attytood" Bunch

This guy has serious chops.

Meanwhile, I see that John Kerry is endorsing Obama today. What would be even better would be if Obama could get Kerry, Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale to all endorse him at the same time...what a powerful image that would be!

ROTFLMAO!!!!

CBS News and Writers End Labor Dispute

Best of luck to the members of WGAon their new contract. It had been two½ years since the last contract expired.

My guess is that when the threatened picket line shut down the CBS debate, management started negotiating in good faith.

I, for one, would like to thank the WGA for stopping a debate moderated by Katie Couric, arguably the most useless big media name ever.

Murrow is spinning in his grave.

Interesting Theory on NH: Obama Lost Because of Angry With Bush Vote

Interesting analysis from Open Left, Chris Bowers notes that Obama led 38%-39% among those dissatisfied with Bush, but among the 2/3 of the voters angry with Bush, Clinton won 39%-34%.

Obama is in a bind with this. His campaign is deliberately a non-angry one, and he really can't switch gears, because if he does, he becomes the "angry black man", and that is not an electable place to be in the USA.

Morons Unclear on Trademark

The teenage entrepreneur screwing this up I can understand, but the reporter completely screwed the pooch on this one.

A kid makes jewelry called "change rocks", and Obama has a concert series called "change rocks".

The kid has no right to do anything with regard to trademark. Quoting the Wiki, "Trademark law is designed to fulfill the public policy objective of consumer protection, by preventing the public from being misled as to the origin or quality of a product or service."

So if there is no potential consumer confusion, there is no harm, no foul.

Obama can't sell jewelry, but he could do T-shirts, bumper stickers, etc. My guess is that his concern is about his Google ranking, or an attempt at free publicity.

Don't care, and neither should Obama. Tough luck, kid.

Economics Update

More blood for Citicorp and Merril, it looks like they will be needing additional foreign money, as they are expected to report additional losses amounting to $25 billion. In addition, Capital One is expected to report about a billion dollars more in losses than was previously expected (what's in your wallet).

And Moody's is thinking about cutting Freddie Mac's rating to A-, which could make raising capital much more difficult.

December retail sales figures sucked wet farts from dead pigeons. It was an increase, but less than inflation, which makes a decrease in real $.

Ben Bernanke has pretty much guaranteed a rate cut in a speech he gave today to the Women in Housing and Finance and Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

CIA Coverup Official Takes 5th

This should surprise no one.

I think that Jose Rodriguez is legitimately worried about being the fall guy in all of this.

Bush's North Korea Counterfeit Accusations Completely Bogus

In May of last year, I made a couple of posts about how the accusations of the DPRK counterfeiting US dollars was bogus (here and here).

Now a McClatchy news investigation has found no evidence that to support these allegations (Bush lying, what a surprise).

If you look at my old articles, I finger the US intelligence services as being the most likely people to do this. They have the means, and opportunity, and as to motive, it allows them to hand out a suitcase full of cash without it appearing on budget.

Klaus Bender, the author of a book on the subject, "Moneymakers: The Secret World of Banknote Printing," said that the phony $100 bill is "not a fake anymore. It's an illegal parallel print of a genuine note."

"It goes way beyond what normal counterfeiters are able to do," said Bender, whose book first spotlighted the improbability of North Korean supernotes. "And it is so elaborate (and expensive) it doesn't pay for the counterfeiting anymore."

Bender claims that the supernotes are of such high quality and are updated so frequently that they could be produced only by a U.S. government agency such as the CIA.

As unsubstantiated as the allegation is, there is a precedent. In his new book on the history of the CIA, journalist Tim Weiner detailed how the agency tried to undermine the Soviet Union's economy by counterfeiting its currency.

Political Updates for the Day

John Kerry has endorsed Barack Obama. I'm not sure how much of this is that he likes Obama, and how much is the feeling that he might have that the Clintonistas submarined him in 2004 to clear the way for Hillary.

TheHill.com - Clinton outraised Obama in the fourth quarter, $24 million to $23.5 million. No breakdown of contributions between primary and general though.

We are starting to see stories about Obama's ties to Antoin "Tony" Rezko and his house purchase. I don't see much being there in terms of corruption (stupidity is another matter), but if he gets the nomination, this will be a regular Republican talking point.

Richardson drops out of the race no word yet on who he will endorse, but my guess would be Clinton.

Landrieu's corruption story seems to have had a bit of wind taken out of its sales. It appears that the earmark in question was because, "Paul Vance, the superintendent of the D.C. public schools, had written Landrieu, then the ranking member on the D.C appropriations subcommittee, and Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH), then the chair, to ask for funds for Voyager." It's not the end of the investigation, but it makes it look like any developments are not imminent.

Looks like Unity '08 will be shut down to make way for a Bloomberg campaign site. Well, f&^% you your honor.

Damn

6 US soldiers killed by booby trapped house.

I want them home.

Holy Crap!!! I Got a Prediction Right!!!!

On 17 November, I wrote about Bank of America buying $$2 billion worth of preferred Countrywide stock yielding 7.3%, and that can be converted into common stock at $18 per share (a 21% discount of the then price). It was supposed to be master stroke of vulture capitalism, giving away the gold the golden goose for some magic beans.

At the time, I said, "Honestly, I think that they will end up losing money on this."

It appears that I was right (happy dance), and we are now seeing the articles wondering how Can Bank of America Can Salvage Its Countrywide Stake. They didn't buy the golden goose, they bought the intestinal gas from the beans (It's trading for $8.72), and now everyone is wondering how BoA will minimize its hurt.


These guys are paid millions of dollars to get stuff like this right, and they didn't, and I did.

It doesn't take a genius to figure this stuff out.

Matthew Saroff's Hall of Failed Predictions: Exhibit 38,745

I was certain that, if there were a winner in the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray wars, it would be HD-DVD. ( here, here, here, here, here, and here)

It's a cheaper tech, and it's not controlled by Sony.

Well, the New York Times is now reporting that
NBC Universal and Paramount are seriously considering a switch to Blu-Ray.

I'm not wrong yet, but it seems likely that I will be in the next 12-18 months.

Then again, the end of the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray wars has always seemed to be 12-18 months away.

Finally, Some Sanity on Security Classifications

The Public Interest Declassification Board is calling for a streamlining of the declassification process.

Speaking as someone who has held a secret clearance^*, the biggest problem is complacency, and this is driven by over-classification.

When everything you touch, even things that are ordinary and are actually publicly known, is classified, are classified, nothing is classified. It becomes background noise.

^*Just in case you are wondering if the fact that a complete and total pratt like me got a secret clearance means that we are all doomed, the answer is yes.

When the Department of Defense Homeland Secrity Wants It's Money Back, You've Screwed Up

So, the Coast Guard wants to to stretch and improve some (49) patrol boats, and the contract goes out to Lockheed-Martin and Northrop-Grumman, with the former doing the new systems, and the latter doing the hulls.

Small problem though, the systems don't work, and the stretched boats buckle and leak. What's more they leaked more than water. They used unshielded cables on the upgrade, meaning that your average Russian fishing trawler could listen in to a secure military network.

So the Coast Guard is asking for its money back:

The U.S. Coast Guard has asked a joint venture of Lockheed Martin Corp and Northrop Grumman Corp to pay $96.1 million for eight patrol boats that it modified, but that cannot be used.

I'm shocked, but less so than if it happened on a DoD, as opposed to a DHS contract^*.

The coast guard is decommissioning (basically scrapping) the boats in question, and is taking back management of the program from the LSI (see my rundown on the LSI process, and why congress is moving to ban the process, here) of the , "$24 billion, 25-year modernization program known as Deepwater".

Wouldn't happen in the DoD. Too many generals who plan to work their retirements with the defense contractors.

^*The strikethrough in the title is irony, not a correction.

New Chinese Short Range AAM

Ares recently posted a description of a new Chinese short range air-to-air missile.

Seeing as how I actually spent some time working in rockets and missiles (SAMs mostly) I though I'd look at their thoughts and add a few of my own:

First, the missile clearly has thrust vectoring, but it does not have any forward fins. These seem to run counter to each other.

A missile lacking forward fins typically has better long range kinematics (the ASRAAM, for example actually has beyond visual range capabilities), but the thrust vectoring shows a bias toward shorter engagement distances.

It should be noted that the fore body strakes probably contribute a quite bit to aerodynamic maneuverability, particularly at high speeds (you will note that the ASRAMM below lacks them)



The rocket motor is almost certainly relatively low thrust at launch, to allow for the vectoring paddles to work with relatively small actuators (the AIM-9X does not do this, but it is reusing an old motor). Additionally, since the thrust vectoring has little benefit at higher speeds, where aerodynamics work better, it's likely that they are jettisoned shortly thereafter in flight.

The report states that the missile is an Imaging Infra Red system, and my guess would be that uses a scanning array, rather than a staring array (go to the Wiki link, it explains the difference fully). While there are applications where a staring array is crucial, such as astronomical devices, for AAMs, the advantages are in dispute, staring arrays are much more difficult to manufacture.

One possibility is that this is the product of South African and Chinese cooperation though, it looks a lot like the Denel A-Darter (see below). Note that the A-Darter has a 6" diameter (166mm) as compared to the 5 inches of the Sidewinder, which implies superior kinematics because of greater fuel volume).

The Best Slashdot Post Ever

You can read it, in all of its awfulness, here, in a discussion of a professor who bemoans the fact that students are learning Java, as opposed to "real" computer languages.

University should be about people (Score:2, Funny)
by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 08, @03:22AM (#21951018)

I'm concerned about the narrowm view of the world IT people and engineers have these days. I think the problem starts at college - There's a culture that somehow science is more rational and usefull then the humanitities. Lecturers encourage students to joke about arts students, and humilaite them whenever possible. This encourages eliteism, and I for one am sick of it.

Let's tell it like it is. 'science' is just as much about opinion as the humanities. Research simply follows the fad of the day. Take dieticians for example. These men and woman believe that just because they have degree in medical science that they are all knowing. Why, what they recommend one day may kill you the next! (see the DDT story for more information.) Science is 95% opinion then facts, lets face it. What about astrology, the most rediculious of the sciences! But I degress...

Another example is music. We know what sounds good. Everyone agreed that Valves for instance sound great. But knowitall engineers use trensastors with inferious sound quality just to save a few bucks. They argue with numbers. Hey, I don't want to do maths just to listen to music. I know what I like. You cannot apply objective reasoning to a subject which is intristically subjective. But try telling those recent grads with their useless piece of paper that and they go all
mightier--then-thou.

The problem with you technical guys are that you are all so eliteist. Whilst you want to trun collage into a trade school with yore narrow minded views that collage should be a job training centre, Humanities are focused on making you a well rounded person who is actually interesting to be with, not a boringfocused geek. Really, it makes me so mad when people say "oh, he's doing a humanities degree, that's easy". I have to read *3* *books* *a* *week* on average. Not picture books either I assue you. It is a lot of work, but the upshot is improved grammer and spelling skills that are lacking in the technical. As for those that say "you will be working at mcdonalds" , I'm going on to so a PhD in socialolgy where I'll be line for tenure where I have a much more rewarding job then being a science freak or an engineer. Anyways, all I have to do to be a engineer wold be to get my MSCE and how hard couyld that be? Technical stuff is simply whatever fad the market thinks is hot at the moment, but all great things were done by humanities.

You technical types are far to narrow minded and cynsical. You should learn to enjoy life.

Peace be to god, he transcends all.

Ummmm....Amazing. I've marked all the misspellings, and least I think that I did.

Three whole books a week, huh...I'm so impressed.

FWIW, I am a product of two liberal arts majors, my dad did sociology/city planning, and my mom did English, but started in mathematics.

I respect the social sciences.

I just don't respect this particular social scientist.

Spectacular self-ownage.

Markets Don't Work as Predictive Instruments

Paul Krugman has an rather interesting insight into the New Hampshire primary results, specifically he gives us this picture of the Intrade price for “Clinton wins the Democratic nomination” bidding:



These investors in this market, you know the one that is supposed to predict the future, got it completely wrong. In fact, as time went on more and more of them got it wring (the bar graphs are at the bottom). Dr. Krugman notes, "There’s no hint that the market saw either Iowa or New Hampshire coming, or knew anything beyond the bloviations of the talking heads."

That is the little picture, but there is a bigger picture, and that is that markets are not some sort of magically predictive tool. They are simply a sort of group guessing game.

One of the arguments for the increasing use of arbitrage is that by creating derivatives, like futures market, help the economy, because of their ability to predict future market swings.

The answer is that they don't. What more, as can be seen on an almost weekly basis, these instruments contribute to price swings, and make commodities more active, by adding another layer of profit taking on the way to market, though, to be fair, they employ no-account Harvard MBAs.

There are cases where futures markets are essential. Without the ability to buy rubber for delivery at a later date, for example, bidding on OEM tires for a car manufacturer would be risky and more expensive, but now we have entities like stock futures, which are unnecessary, make the market more volatile, and encourage speculation at the expense of investing.

The Effect of Proposition 13 On the California Real Estate Market

A friend of mine pulled a graph from an old story in the Orange County register where they predicted that home prices were expected to fall in 2007. (Well I did say it was an old story, dated 19 October 2006.

What I found interesting was the graphic, what we can learn from it with a bit more data:

Ignoring the obvious, that they underestimated the drop like every other real estate ad supported media entity, we can learn something about the effect of Proposition 13 on the California real estate market.

Proposition 13, passed in 1987, says that a house can only be taxed at 1% of property evaluation, and that absent a sale, that the evaluation can not increase by more than 2% per year.

So that $62,290.00 house in 1977 would now be assessed, absent any intervening sale, at $112,830.00 in 2007, while the true market value would $550,000.00 in 2007.

Truth be told, it would probably be less, if just because houses are getting bigger (McMansions), so let's call it $508,000.00.

So if you stay in the house, and improve it, and don't down size it, and leave it to your kids, right now you will be paying 22% the taxes you would if it has been assessed at fair market value.

Under those circumstances, it makes no sense to move to a bigger house when your family gets bigger, you just add on to the existing one, and if you sell to move to a smaller house when the children move out, your profit are wiped out by the tax hike.

There are a whole bunch of people sitting on houses that they would otherwise sell, because of the tax consequences.

So less housing reaches the market, you see less of the empty nesters moving into townhouses, etc., more sprawl, and through supply and demand, prices rise.

You also have the side effect that commerical property is corporate owned, and the corporation is sold, rather than the property, which raises the burden on new home purchasers.

It's one of the reasons that California is so screwed up.

Diner Diving

My job shop took me out to lunch and gave some schwag, a pencil cosy, pen, and sticky pad.

They also took me out to lunch at the Silver Diner.

I like diners, I find them to be a bit of an adventure, as opposed to chains, though this is a local chain with 20 restaurants in Maryland and Virginia.

I had a burger, and it was pretty good. The shoe string fries were very nice, maybe next time I'll do onion rigs, and the coffee was good, in a "this is a diner, not a latte house" way, which is my preference.

Both the restaurant, and my job shop are recommended, and for the latter, I'd say that even if they hadn't just fed me.

Philip Agee Dead

He's a real mixed bag. He blew the whistle on some egregious CIA abuses, but he also outed a lot of agents and caused long term damage to the US intelligence apparatus.

He was 72.

Military Ignoring "Don't Ask Don't Tell" At Least Until You Come Home

Actually the soldier in question is suggesting that the Military's policies on gays serving may be changing, because he told his CO's that he was gay, and because he's been out for years.

Nope:

"This particular soldier's unit only recently returned from the war to Fort Hood, Texas, so it's premature to speculate on any future actions until the young man's situation can be considered by his chain of command," Boyce said in a statement.

Translation: Now that you've done your tour, and we no longer need you, you will be separated, you will have no benefits, and we want that enlistment bonus back.

What the Other Matthew Says

Matthew Yglesias makes a very good point, while Americans complain about various minor personal peccadillos of our politicians, "French President Nicholas Sarkozy got divorced early in his term, is dating a supermodel and his son's writing songs for radical French rappers".

His thesis is that not only our concerns small minded, but that our politicians have pretty dull lives.

I agree.

God, What Miserable Excuses for Human Beings

The thing that surprises me is that it's that this is a Maureen Dowd Op/ED, and I'm not referring to her as a miserable excuse of a human being.

When I walked into the office Monday, people were clustering around a computer to watch what they thought they would never see: Hillary Clinton with the unmistakable look of tears in her eyes.

A woman gazing at the screen was grimacing, saying it was bad. Three guys watched it over and over, drawn to the “humanized” Hillary. One reporter who covers security issues cringed. “We are at war,” he said. “Is this how she’ll talk to Kim Jong-il?”

Another reporter joked: “That crying really seemed genuine. I’ll bet she spent hours thinking about it beforehand.” He added dryly: “Crying doesn’t usually work in campaigns. Only in relationships.”

Though let me say, that MoDo does not come across as any great testimony to humanity in this article either.

Atrios calls them, "...all broken. Complete monsters", and I'm inclined to agree.

I'm beginning to think that we should abolish Journalism schools, and go back to the old way, paperboy to copy boy to cub reporter to reporter, because the products of Journalism schools seemed to have missed "Humanity 101".

Of course, these days, I'm not sure how you do the "copy boy" bit.

US Healthcare Sucks

France, Japan and Australia rated best and the United States worst in new rankings focusing on preventable deaths due to treatable conditions in 19 leading industrialized nations, researchers said on Tuesday.

I am totally not surprised. The US has coasted for 50+ years on the fact that we as a nation were so damn wealthy that we could subscribe to a system that is inefficient and cruel.

That time has passed. There are transactions, healthcare being one, where the classic free market simply fails.

Whether its single payer or a National Health Service (my favorite), it's clear that, to quote Pete Townshend, The Music Must Change.

Dewey Defeats Truman

Let me just offer Ramesh Ponnuru, and the rest of my "friends" at the National Review a hearty:

Ha Ha!!!

BTW, with the exception of Jonah Goldberg, you folks was robbed. Bill Kriston can't write, can't think, and can't get the facts straight. If the NY Times wanted a another reactionary in its OP/ED page, they could have selected someone better, though I find his first column so laughable, it amused me.

Like I've said before, I'm not classy. I've nearly broken 40 posts using the "schadenfreude" tag.

White House Slapped By Magistrate in Email Lawsuit

From what I know of computers, I gotta figure that they are somewhere out there, and U.S. Magistrate Judge John Facciola's order to determine whether or not the emails are on backup should reveal some interesting data.

There is dirt there, though with the fetish for secrecy, I'm not sure how much of it is that and how much is covering one or more criminal conspiracies.

The Rep Doolittle Corruption Scandal Continues

It appears that everyone is telling Rep. John Doolittle (R-Calif.) not to run for reelection.

They are afraid that he would turn the district blue.

I don't know why...Hip deep in Abramhoff, at least one aide already sentenced for corruption, and...oh yeah...that bit where he's paying his wife large sums of money to fund raise for him.

Even if the last one is not illegal, it won't play well in November.

Run Johnny, run!!

Air Force Attempts Blackmail to Get More F-22s

The USAF has been trying any means possible to keep the F-22 production line open.

This time, it is using the structural problems of the F-15 to do so.



Let's be clear, this is a serious issue, but the USAF permanently grounding 180 aircraft is unnecessary.

It appears that the problem is the result of two things, the age of the airframe, and the fact that some of the longerons are defective.

That being said, the USAF personnel running around crying that the sky is falling, and so you get quotes like this:

"Do you try to patch a 25-year-old airplane that has been patched and patched and patched?" another senior Air Force official asked. "After the repairs, it will not be the same aircraft it was before."

The answer, of course, is that it will be the same aircraft as before. The repairs are not cheap, my guess would be on the order of $200,000 to $300,000 per aircraft, and with a weight hit of somewhere between 50 and 100 kg.

Compared to something north of $150,000,000 for an F-22, it is an inexpensive solution.

One of the things that USAF is studiously quiet about is the fact that the F-15 is a superior platform for the interception of cruise missiles, because it has a larger antenna for its radar (Physics is a bitch, ain't it).

xkcd Owns Ron Paul Supporters

I'm sure that this will anger some Ron Paul supporters, but let's be fair: this is not making fun of Ron Paul. It's making fun of Ron Paul supporters.

Seriously, a blimp????

...............


Courtesy of xkcd - A webcomic of romance, sarcasm, math, and language - By Randall Munroe, who is a bloody genius.

OH MY GOD

Rich Toscano has a post on December home prices in the San Diego Area, and if this does not scare you, are dead:

For the month of December, the size-adjusted median price was down 4.6% for single family homes, 5.8% for condos and 5.0% overall. That's right, for the month. The graph below shows the declines from the peak.

FWIW, the housing market is collapsing from the bottom up, so the houses not selling are cheaper, and the already bad figures become even worse when corrected for square footage.

OK, the Results in New Hampshire McCain & Clinton Win

And I'm pulling down the polling spreadsheet, you can find it here.

McCain beats Romney. I figured that it would be closer.

Clinton beats Obama. This one shocked me.

And yes, my prediction that Huckabee would break 17% was wrong.

If I continue to get my predictions this wrong, I expect a job offer from the Bush White House.

My analysis: First, I wish that Paul had out polled Giuliani. Just because Mr. 911 deserves to be humiliated, like he did to his last wife by announcing the divorce on Mother's day at a press conference. The man is a human stain, and the only candidate out there worse than the Avignon President, and his VP, the human snarl.

The American public supported Rudy because they did not know him, but over the past 2-4 months, they have who he is, and they would sooner French kiss a cow than vote for him.

As to McCain, it must be great for the press corps to have a "man crush" on you. He's too damn old, and he's hated by the Evangelicals and by the Wall Street Republicans...He won't win.

Huckabee did OK, and will crush the opposition in South Carolina, notwithstanding Freddie Thompson's clown show line in the sand down there. He may not have the nomination locked up, but he if he does not get the nomination, he comes in 2nd.

Clinton-Obama, I don't know where it's going. According to exit poll reports, the older voters were what put her over the top, and so I would give her a slight edge.

I don't know the effect of her being misty-eyed at that rally. I just saw it as her being tired and a bit overwhelmed, and so I did not comment on it, but perhaps people wanted to see her in a slightly less reserved mode.

It certainly didn't hurt.

An interesting phenomenon can be on the front page of Josh Marshall's TPM there were a lot of people who do not care for Clinton who were incensed at the way the press went after her. It's only 2-3 letters but I assume that it represents at least a segment of the population.

I can't see Edwards getting any traction unless either Obama or Clinton crash and burn, which depresses me.

With Obama, you have a content free campaign (and dog whistle gay baiting), and with Clinton you have potentially disasterous dynastic issues. We've already had 20 straight years of presidents Bush and Clinton, which is too damn much.

I'm in Maryland, so if my vote counts, I'll be amazed, but I'm pulling the lever for Edwards.

DOJ Report: U.S. Civil Rights Commission Appointments Illegal

Bush and His Evil Minions^™ wanted to stack the Civil Rights commission. The problem? The law forbade any more than 4 of the 8members being of one party.

Bush's solution was to have two of the Republicansregister as independent, and then appoint two more Republicans.

Well, now the non-partisan Congressional Research Service has reviewed the 1957 Civil Rights Act that established the commission, along with the 1983 changes designed to forstall Ronald "What me, Racist" Reagan doing what Bush just did.

In sum, the situation that precipitated Congress' 1983 revision of the Civil Rights Commission - the presidential firing of five of the then six sitting commissioners - is arguably indistinguishable from the changes in party registrations that has effectively allowed the President to establish a majority of his political in control of the Commission. The intent of the 1983 restructuring, as confirmed by the Wilson decision, was to preclude similar juggling of the of the Commission's statutory appointments process. In light of that history, together with the recognition of the Wilson court of the central importance of independence of the central importance of independence to the accomplishment of the Commission's mission, it is likely that a reviewing court would find the OLC opinion unpersuasive and the recent appointments violative of the political balance requirements of the statute.

In English, it's pretty clear that they just ignored the law because they felt like it.

CREW Calls for Criminal Investigation of Mary Landrieu (D-LA)

Well, a corrupt politician in Louisiana, who would have thunk it.

The way it looks right now, it's something like 2 to something like 133 by party, with all the Dem's cases being in Louisiana.

This one appears to be a bit more prosaic though, no money in the freezer, just earmarks for contributions.

Personally, I would not miss her in the Senate one bit. She is a DINO, and a much too consistent vote for the Republican agenda.

At some point, party discipline must be enforced, or you stand for nothing.

Economic Update

Merrill Lynch saying that a recession in the US "has arrived", to which I say, "what took you so long"?

Countrywide Financialis hit by rumors of bankruptcy, and they have admitted that they fabricated documents in a foreclosure suit., so their stock is tanking.

Morgan Stanley has downgraded Ambac Financial and MBIA, two of the largest bond insurers because of concerns about mounting losses.

New home contracts fall, the National Association of Realtors' has upped their estimate for year over year losses, and KB Home's losses shoot skyward.

Pentagon Refused to Invesgigate KBR Rape Charges

Just lovely.

I guess that it might interfere with Dick Cheney's deferred compensation package from Halliburton.