Thimerosal DOES NOT Cause Autism

A study has just been completed on Autism rates following the removal Thimerosal from vaccines in 2001, and the numbers are stark, removing Thimerosol made no change in the incidence of Autism spectrum disorders. (LA Times Link)

Autism cases continued to increase in California after the mercury-containing preservative thimerosal was eliminated from most childhood vaccines, according to a new report.This suggests that exposure to thimerosal is not a primary cause of autism.

Speaking as a parent of a child on the spectrum, Charlie is a very high functioning Aspergers kid, let me state that the people arguing for this are wrong.

Every peer reviewed study has shown no correlation, and while correlation may not prove causation, a lack of correlation does prove a lack of causation.

Inoculations work. Inoculations don't give your kid an Autism Spectrum disorder.

Get your kids vaccinated, for their good, and for the good of their classmates.

Baltimore City is Suing Wells Fargo Over Subprime Loans

The City of Baltimore is suing Wells Fargo, claiming that, "contending that its lending practices discriminated against black borrowers and led to a wave of foreclosures that has reduced city tax revenues and increased its costs."

I expect this to be the first of many such suits from local governments taking it on the chin from foreclosures.

Joe Gibbs Resigns as Redskins Head Coach

Damn. Joe Gibbs Resigns as Redskins Head Coach.

Would someone please convince the CIA to take Dan Snyder to Gitmo?

OK, this is Just Totally Without Class

It appears that some Edwards supporters at a Clinton rally refused to shake her hand.

That's just being a jerk.

I have had a handshake refused, some Orthodox Jewish women don't shake hands because they consider it "immodest", and I wasn't offended, and the refusal to me was not intended to be offensive.

This was intended to be offensive, and the unnamed Edwards supporter was a turd.

Bear Stearns CEO to Step Down

Jimmy Cayne is to resign.

Bear Stearns is circling the drain, and I stand by my prediction, buyout or closure by August 2008.

This is REALLY Classy

You know, one of the things I prefer about the British is their culture of heckling.
Not only is heckling expected, but politicians are expected to be able to deal with it.

I think that it would result in more substantive campaigns, because the average voter/heckler has the ability to drive the focus, and politicians have to be quick on their feet.

I think it makes it harder for someone to become president just because they are the idiot son of a previous president.

That being said, if America were to adopt this model, we would need remedial education for hecklers, because lordy, this is lame:

Two men were just removed from a high school auditorium where Sen. Hillary Clinton is speaking, after they stood up during her speech, lifted signs and chanted "iron my shirt."

Seriously, if you are going to do this, spend some time coming up with something that makes her look bad, not something that makes you look bad.

This is just so "high school".

Straights of Hormuz, Gulf of Tonkin, It's All the Same

This report sounds very familiar, a bunch of small boats, "threatening" US naval vessels.

While I have no doubt that the Iranians have detailed plans for an assault of US Naval forces, this is not how they would do it.


On Black Monday in 1987, the US and Iranians engaged in the largest surface engagement since the battle of Leyte Gulf, which resulted in the destruction of half the Iranian surface fleet.

It didn't get much coverage because of the stock market crash that day.

The Iranians have a very good idea of how much they are over matched, even in littoral waters like the Persian Gulf.

They won't be broadcasting threats on the radio and broadcasting, "Your ships will explode in a couple of minutes".

Any attack will be conducted in small boats, launched from a number of different locations, and it will be conducted in radio silence.

There was no attack, or any provocation, just some testosterone laden maneuvering.

Running Out of Ballots: New Hampshire Turnout Off the Charts

Good. High turnout is something that benefits the society, because it gives more people a vested interest in the results, and hence a reason to be informed.

Not surprisingly, the turnout has increased the most on the Democratic side of the primary, undeclared voter can declare when they go into vote, and it looks like there may be shortages of ballots.

I think that this means a long night before all returns are in, but they will probably have a winner declared by 9:00pm on both sides.

Franken Outraising Coleman

Whatever side you are on in Minnesota, it's clear that you will lose, because with the amount of money raised, Franken raised $1.9 million in the last quarter, and Coleman raised $1.7 million, you are going to be getting wall to wall ads.

Once you get wall to wall ads, they go negative, because otherwise they become background noise.

I'm wondering how long before Franken is accused of being a "Thespian".

Coleman is ahead in cash on hand, about $6m to about $3.1m, and it's likely that even with Franken out raising his next nearest primary opponent by a significant amount, he will have a serious primary campaign.

Of course, this election is all about him, Al Franken. (Old SNL reference)

Xerox is Doomed, Stages of Grief Edition

It appears Xerox® has unveiled a new logo, thus they are doomed.


For people, there are 5 stages of grief, particularly when one is told that they have a terminal disease:

1. Denial: The initial stage: "It can't be happening."
2. Anger: "Why me? It's not fair."
3. Bargaining: "Just let me live to see my children graduate."
4. Depression: "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"
5. Acceptance: "It's going to be OK."

(taken verbatim from the Wiki)

Businesses that are are terminal go through similar stages, though there are some differences.

Specifically, there is a "their logo, or their name, or both" stage.

My Prediction on New Hampshire

Well, really I have only one, that Huckabee will do a lot better than the polling trend of 12% or so.

If you look at things like this report of large crowds for him, and the statements of the Republican establishment and the Washington punditocracy^* to the effect that Huckabee supporters are mouth breathing morons, which would tend to have people not telling pollsters that they lean his way.

Additionally, independent voters are more likely to vote in the Democratic primary, simply because they believe that the next president will be a Democrat, which leaves a higher proportion of hard core conservatives voting.

I'm calling for 17+% for Huckabee. (A clarification, I'm not calling a win, just that he breaks 17%)

^*Which might be better described as a Kakistocracy.

Tenet and Other CIA Officials Lawyer Up

It's been known for some time that Jose Rodriguez has retained Bob Bennet, and now George Tenet has retained Howard Shapiro, a former FBI general coundil.

Additionally, Roy Krieger, who has represented a large number of CIA employees is getting inquiries.

These folks are experiencing the prisoner's dilemma, and assumign that this investigation runs past January 21 of next year, the one who rolls to the prosecutor first wins.

It's clear that these tapes were destroyed to prevent an investigation.

Juxtaposing Rudy Giuliani and Nipple Clamps

The Dependable Renegade (completely work safe, but don't drink while the site loads).

It appears that everyone on the internet can make better jokes than I can.

Joe Trippi Claims That Hillary Campaign Is Broke

Honestly, I don't see this claim as anything but self-aggrandizement from Trippi.

He thinks that because he blew through $40 million dollars with Dean in 2004, that Hillary must have blown through $100 million or so in 2008.

I place no credence in this, for a number of reasons:

• It's Joe bloody Trippi, who has little credibility.
• You are not getting reports of frantic fund raising emails, and in this day of the internet, if there were a cash flow crisis, emails would be flying fast and furious.
• This serves his interest as an Edwards campaign advisor.
  

Adventures in Ebay

I wanted to upgrade my system, but because it's a Dell with ECC RAM, it's hard to find the memory, and it costs a lot, so I checked out eBay.

I made the order on December 29, it arrived FedEX ground yesterday, and it works. No muss, no fuss.

It was between $400 and $500 for a gig of RAM from Dell, it was $29.95+ 9.95 s&h for the 1 gig from computersgeeks. Used but a the Dell OEM part

I recommend the seller, but once again, everything Dell does seems to be non standard and a pain to replace.

Christopher Hayes' Proposals for Good Campaign Coverage

His proposals are pretty common sense, but they would improve coverage a lot:

Then there’s the additional problem that the longer a reporter spends with a campaign, the more likely they’ll develop either a kind of contempt for the candidate and the campaign or a strange version of stockholm syndrome. Clearly this was the case during 2000 and 2004 when the dislike for both Gore and Kerry was palpable. This might be natural and human, but it breeds awful journalism.

Finally, we have the perenial complaint that the coverage focuses on the horse-race and the theater of the campaign and not on the issues. But I don’t really think that’s the fault of reporters. First, they have to file constantly on short deadlines. So even if Obama releases a tax plan one day, and you write a piece about that, that’s still only a one-day story. What do you write about the next day? Why, Obama sniping with Hillary or somesuch. Second of all, consider the imbalance in expertise between a campaign and those who cover it. When Obama releases a tax plan, it’s a product of a team of policy experts, who know the terrain inside and out. But the reporter who has to file the deadline piece about it doesn’t have any expertise on tax policy. So how could their coverage be anything but shallow?

His proposals:

• Rotate Reports. After covering a candidate for a few weeks, they have heard the stump speech dozens of times, and wouldn't know a new policy initiative if it bit them on the ass.
• More long form non-deadline pieces. (If someone has been with a candidate for months, they can provide deeper insights).
• Assign campaign coverage to beat reports. Hays gives the example of the New York Times' Jeff Zeleny covering an Obama tax proposal. The problem was that Zeleny does not do taxes, and most reporters are innumerate. However, the Times does have reporters who can do taxes and count, like David Cay Johnston, who has won a Pulitzer in this area.

The only thing that I would add is that, particularly for papers like the LA Times, WaPo, and Times, who can pick and choose their talent, don't hire innumerate reporters.

I don't care if you are covering politics, or architecture, or fashion, if you cannot read a balance sheet, you have no business being a reporter.

We are not talking differential equations, or even calculus, we are talking Algebra that should have been mastered in high school.

OK, Gravel is My Guy, at Least Until He Joneses My Buzz

So now, Mike Gravel is telling teens that pot is better than alcohol.

He also said that by decriminalizing dope, you would end up with fewer criminals, and less exposure to the criminal element.

Of course, this is that wacky Gravel being wacky again...except that he's telling the truth.

Marijuana is not physically addictive, it cannot kill you with an overdose, and the effects on the system long term are milder.

Of course, the problem is that legalization would cut into both the profits of the Pot business, and the budget of the DEA, so "various serious people" don't support legalization.

UK Per Capita GDP Exceeds the US

Interestingly enough, the Times of London screws up the hed, titling it UK Living Standards Outstrip US, which is inaccurate.

In terms of standard of living, when you look at things like health care costs, university costs, decent transit alternatives to autos, and a social safety net, western Europe has been ahead of the US for well over a decade.

A number of people have blown this off as an "artifact" of currency changes, but the fact of the matter is that the $US has been artificially high since at least the end of WWII, because of the US dollar's preeminent position as the world's reserve currency.

Quote of the Day: David Brooks

Overheard in New Hampshire: David Brooks on Bill Kristol

After last night's debate, New York Times columnist David Brooks was chatting with a group of people. One of them said: "I hear you hired that conservative Bill Kristol." David Brooks responded: "More like a pseudoconservative."

I'm not sure where this comes from, but my guess is that Brooks thinks that Bill Kristol is the beneficiary of conservative affirmative action (nepotism).

The GOP's Primaries as High School Musical

Michael Scherer of Time Magazind, has Tan analysis of the GOP debates that actually is a good analysis of the election:

• John Mccain: The coolest kid in school.
• Mitt Romney: The class do-gooder and overachiever.
• Mike Huckabee: The class clown whose heart always seems in the right place.

I'm not sure if I'm impressed at this guy's perception, or terrified that the Republican nominee fits into the memes of hich school cliques.

Warner Brothers Drops HD-DVD

Well, I made predictions on the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray wars (see here, here, here, here, and here).

Generally, I've either bet against Sony, which is generally a safe bet, or against both, the theory that online distribution will render both formats redundant.

Given my previous record, perhaps you want to buy stock in Sony, because Warner Brothers just dropped HD-DVD as a format. They had been using both.

I stand by my predictions, but my record sucks.

V-22 Osprey 40% Readiness

You have the details here and here.

The problem here are the incentives. You pay the prime billions to field the system, and then billions more to fix it.

Maybe non-performance penalties would be a good idea.

George McGovern Calls for Bush's and Cheney's

He's right, of course. What surprises me is that Über wanker Fred Hyatt actually published it. If there is an editorial page that has more consistently and dishonestly supported Bush and His Evil Minions^™, I'm at a loss to find them, and I'm including the WSJ editorial page in that.

Freddie Thompson Clown Show

After a surprising 3rd place showing in Iowa, Freddie Thompson has decided to ignore New Hampshire, and move on to South Carolina, which is already firmly in Huckabee's pocket. As one wag put it, "Thompson Takes New Hampshire for Granite."

Commercial Real Estate Tanking Too

At least in San Diego and its environs, arguably one of the epicenters of the housing bubble, we are now seeing a glut of office space too.

Housing has historically tanked about 6-18 months before commercial real estate in the case of local bubbles.

Don't Shop Sears.com

The folks at CA have discovered that if you join their SHC community, and you repeatedly get this offer, it will install a particularly nasty form of spyware.

Specifically, this spyware, "racks all your Internet usage - including banking logins, email, and all other forms of Internet usage".

Hopefully, we will be seeing a class action suit over this.

Hack0rz to Penetrate 787 Systems in flight

Well, it appears that one of Boeing's innovations with the 787 is the ability to wirelessly access maintenance and control systems, and the FAA is demanding that there be more security on these systems.

The entire world of aviation is increasingly looking like the Pilot episode of
The Lone Gunman an X-Files spin off, in which the forces of fascism attempt to take over the computer systems of an airliner and fly it into the Twin Towers.

Heck, the entire world is beginning to seem like an episode of The Lone Gunman.

God is My Guide, With Exact GPS Coordinates

Well, it appears that someone in Florida has devised a strategy to thwart baby Jesus stealers everywhere, they implanted a GPS tracker.

I expect this to be the beginning of a trend among Nativity scenes in the future.

The woman who oversees the annual display decided to put Global Positioning System trackers on the Jesus, Mary and Joseph figurines.

"I don't anticipate this will ever happen again," Dina Cellini said, "but we may need to rely on technology to save our savior."

First, we lose ice pick murders, and now this.

It appears that technology has gone too far.

Bush and His Evil Minions™: Poor Children Should Die

Fresh off of denying health care to the children of the working poor, Bush is now doing his level best to make sure that even poorer children die.

They have set impossible criteria, because they believe that people are poor because they are evil, and because they believe that the government helping poor people compounds that evil.

It's the worst characteristics of 1500s Calvanism with a Texas twang.

Of course it also helps out the health insurance companies, who are big Republican donors. So you get more dead kids and more dirty insurance money, which is a win-win for Republicans.

Mukasey Appoints Patrick Fitzgerald to the Attorney General's Advisory Committee of U.S. Attorneys

Honestly, I have no clue as to what this appointment means.

Based on Mukasey's statements on waterboarding, I was convinced that he was Bush and His Evil Minions^&trade bitch, but this would seem to indicate otherwise.

What is the role of this committee? Does this mean anything, or is it just a title and a pat on the head?

He was on the committee before, but was not reappointed by Abu Gonzalez after he started investigating the Plame leak.

The pourpose of the committee appears to be, counseling "the attorney general on law enforcement issues."

A Very Funny Political Cartoon

Forclosures Skyrocketing in Boston Suburbs

As the picture shows, it's not just poor people in poor neighborhoods who are getting hammered, and this pattern is being repeated nation wide.

How I'll Be Tracking the Polls

As opposed to posting update posts, I've put a Google Spreadsheet on the top of my page.

To prevent useless scrollage, I'm going to not show the older results, but you can see the whole spreadsheet here, ready for things like export to excel or other analysis packages.

Anyone who uses these regularly, I have a couple of questions:

• Is there a way to vary the weight of the borders?
• Is there a way to automatically bold the leader in a poll (I've played around with Google's conditional formatting, and ti does not yet quite make it there).

Otherwise, consider this an open thread.

Friday Cat Blogging: BEST LOL CATS OF 2007 (PLUS ONE OTHER) Edition

Meta Watershed: BEST LOL CATS OF 2007 (PLUS ONE OTHER)

A sample:



See you Saturday evening.

Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll

This is before the Iowa Caucuses, so it will be changing, and I will post Updates.

Zogby International

	Before Caucuses
Democrats:	1/3/2008
Clinton	32%
Obama	26%
Edwards	20%
Richardson	7%
Republicans:
McCain	34%
Romney	30%
Huckabee	10%
Giuliani	9%
Paul	7%

Have I Mentioned Lately that Giuliani is Batsh%$ Insane???

So Rudy Giuliani is floating the idea that Dick Cheney would be his Vice President.

Either he is completely insane, or he figures that Cheney is the only person constitutionally able to serve as VP who won't appear to be more personable.


After this picture was taken, they both butchered and roasted the girl. Tim Russert thought that it made both of them look "presidential".

Bush Is Delusional (Economics Edition)

So, Captain Oblivious is saying that the markets are 'Strong and Solid', and that it's time to look at cut taxes some more.

Cutting taxes? With the dollar tanking because of out deficit?

I swear, if this man had hemorrhoids, he would think them a reason to cut taxes.

CIA Coverup: Jane Harman Warned Them Not to Destroy Tapes in 2003

This is significant, because her warning letter (reproduced from TPM below) specifically mentions issues of oversight.

Harman has been trying to get her letter declassified for some time.

February 10, 2003

Mr. Scott Muller
General Counsel
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, DC 20505

Dear Mr. Muller:

Last week’s briefing brought home to me the difficult challenges faced by the Central Intelligence Agency in the current threat environment. I realize we are at a time when the balance between security and liberty must be constantly evaluated and recalibrated in order to protect our nation and its people from catastrophic terrorist attack and I thus appreciate the obvious effort that you and your Office have made to address the tough questions. At the briefing you assured us that the [redacted] approved by the Attorney General have been subject to an extensive review by lawyers at the Central Intelligence Agency, the Department of Justice and the National Security Council and found to be within the law.

It is also the case, however, that what was described raises profound policy questions and I am concerned about whether these have been as rigorously examined as the legal questions. I would like to know what kind of policy review took place and what questions were examined. In particular, I would like to know whether the most senior levels of the White House have determined that these practices are consistent with the principles and policies of the United States. Have enhanced techniques been authorized and approved by the President?

You discussed the fact that there is videotape of Abu Zubaydah following his capture that will be destroyed after the Inspector General finishes his inquiry. I would urge the Agency to reconsider that plan. Even if the videotape does not constitute an official record that must be preserved under the law, the videotape would be the best proof that the written record is accurate, if such record is called into question in the future. The fact of destruction would reflect badly on the Agency.

I look forward to your response.

Sincerely,

JANE HARMAN

(emphasis mine)

This letter bolsters the case for obstruction, either of justice or of a federal investigation.

Economic Update

Job growth was only 17,000 in December. The already anemic prediction had been 80,000 jobs, as opposed to the 115,000 in November.

What's more, private sector employment fell.

As a result, unemployment hit 5%, a 2 year high, and this number is artificially low, due to things like discouraged workers, and statistical machinations of the Bush DoL.

So the job numbers, along with the markets dropping 2% today, have put more pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

BTW, generally the market rallies on bad jobs reports, because there is an assumption that falling interest rates will drive money to stocks.

In the world of $100/oil, we have the rebels in Nigeria's delta area threating an escalation, though oil has dropped in response to the poor job numbers.

Do you remember Bankruptcy reform? Well it ain't working. Bankruptcies have risen 40 percent in 2007.

Just so you know, the Fed is still pumping more money into the collapsing credit markets, so they are increasing the amount of money that they are auctioning on Jan 14 and 28.

You remember these loans...I made a crack about people putting up magic beans as collateral.

Just in case you are wondering how the credit crunch can effect you, the Massachusetts Secretary of State is looking into Merrill Lynch advice for Springfield's reserve fund. They lost 91.4%, about $10 out of every $11 they invested by listening to their broker

There is, however, a bit of good news, asset backed commercial paper, a sort of short term loan used by businesses, has increased for the first time since August.

Of course, there has been an Augean level of currency pumped into the market by central banks, so I'm calling dead cat bounce.

Padilla Sues John Yoo

I don't quite get how this would work legally, Yoo is probably indemnified by the fact that he worked for the DoJ, but the fact that he's being sued by a man whose tortured into near insanity is poetic justice, at least.

My damages would be to have him imprisoned for a few years under the conditions that Padilla was.

Or, we could just render him to Saudi Arabia.

Then, or course, my delusions of civilized behavior kick in, and I say, "Send him to The Hague, where he can cool his heels with other war criminals".

Von Spakovsky says good-bye to that job at the FEC | Political Insider

Hans Von Spakovsky resigns from the FEC, though the Bush Administration has not withdrawn his nomination.

This is a man whose professional career has been, "Keeping N***ers from Voting", and the fact that he is exiting the scene is a good thing.

One final, more trivial note:



Between that picture, which looks like a Waffen SS photo, which, juxtaposed with his name, just gives me the creeps.

Of course, he's not a Nazi SS member. He's a bigot, and a lier, and a follower of Jim Crow.

All par for the course for a nomination from Bush and His Evil Minions^™.

Bush and His Evil Minions™ Covering Up for Halliburton's Rapists

The Bush Administration is stonewallng on questions from Senator Bill Nelson regarding KBR rape allegations.

Seriously, there should not be an issue here. This isn't some obscure question of regulatory policy or philosophy. This is rape, and the Bush admin should not be covering it up.

Bad Investments

Interesting numbers on foreign investments in the US:

Foreign investors exploited the declining U.S. dollar during the past three months to snap up American companies, taking the biggest share of U.S. deals in at least a decade.

Buyers from Dubai to the Netherlands accounted for 46 percent of the $230.5 billion of U.S. mergers and acquisitions announced in the fourth quarter, the largest portion since 1998 when Bloomberg started compiling the data. The total excludes $17.9 billion of so-called passive investments by state-run funds in Asia and the Middle East in U.S. banks, including New York-based Citigroup Inc.

So, counting the "passive investments" we're over 50%.

This reminds me of when the Japanese bought in the US in the early 1990s, and later sold at a 30% loss.

This time though, I think that it's more likely that the losses will come from a plummeting dollar.

Out There, and Now Out of There

Mike Gravel drops out of Presidential race.

100 Years in Iraq???? WTF!!!

H/t to GNB.



Yes, that is John McCain calling for 100 years in Iraq, and yes, that is Joseph Lieberman on stage with him, and yes, they are both batsh$# insane, and yes, he's toast.

Most Republicans want out, and the number is overwhelming in New Hampshire, particularly when you consider the independents who might vote for him.

He is toast.

Biden, Dodd Drop Out of Race

Oh well.

Biden had the best bon mot of the season, when he said that when Giuliani talked, what came out was, "a noun, a verb, and 911"

Christopher Dodd really cares about civil rights and due process, as the son of a Nuremberg prosecutor, it's literally in his DNA. He was defeated Daschle for Dem leader 7 years ago, and I hope that he goes up against Reid next year.

I, for One, Welcome Our Alien Overlords

Congratulations to Senator Obama and Governor Huckabee.

You are now both the designated spear catchers for the rest of the primaries.

It will be profoundly interesting to see just how much nasty the Republicans will throw Huckabee's way.

I Swear, In One More of Those Pompous Media Gasbags Says How This is "Good For Mccain"

I will do something very, very, rash.

The Club for Growth types hate him, because he supports campaign finance reform, the religious right hates him, because he called Falwell and Robertson out on being corrupt assholes.

Seriously, is there anyone in the Republican party who actually likes this guy?

Tata Motors to Purchase Jaguar

So it appears that Ford will sell Jaguar and Rover to Tata Motors in India.

When I heard about this, I flashed back to the otherwise forgettable movie, Crazy People, in which Dudley Moore plays an advertising man who flips out, and starts writing completely honest ads.

He does one for Jaguar, he does one that goes:

Jaguar... For guys who want handjobs from beautiful women they hardly know (with accompanying "Yes! I want a hand job!" tear off flyers).

Somehow the juxtaposition of Jaguar and Tata leads me to places I should not be going.

Thankfully, a friend helped (thanks Asta), and I can now conclusively say that their next car will be called the.....


Wait for it.....


Wait for it....


The Bodacious Tata!

Memo to Pakistan: Sherlock Holmes May be a Fictional Character, but You Won't Be Able to Buy off the Yard

It looks like Pakistan will be allowing elements of Scotland Yard into the Bhutto investigation.

They are in for a rude awakening. They won't be dealing with diplomats, but an entirely different sort of British public servant.

Classism

Timothy Egan of the Times has a very interesting post about the establishment's antipathy towards Huckabee. It sounds a lot like their rap on Bill Clinton (Rhodes Scholar) and Jimmy Carter (59th out of 820 at Annapolis) too.

Amazing it appears that the Washington Hive Mind^™ is Republican, and that it hates authentic Southerners (GW Bush was born in Connecticut, and went to Phillips Andover and Yale).

The rap against Mike Huckabee, the Baptist preacher and ex-Arkansas governor now doing for the Republican Party establishment what three-alarm chili does for an afternoon nap, is that he’s too inexperienced to be president, too naïve — a rube straight out of Dogpatch.

Few of Huckabee’s critics have actually come out and said what many of them think. The language is coded, as it usually is with class and race in this country. The Wall Street Journal, the anti-tax jihadists at the Club For Growth, the National Review – these pillars of Old School Republicanism have signaled that Huckabee is Not One of Ours. But they’re careful to say it’s not about class, because, of course – it is!

Go Read the rest.

Bad Day at the Office

At least it is when you are marine biologist Trey Snow, and you are tracking Great White Sharks in a kayak. (this is a real picture)



Truth be told, I think that Mitt Romney's day was worse.

A Great Quote on Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan

Crooks and liars has the video of Robert Kuttner on CSPAN's "Book TV":

What was so striking about that book [Greenspan’s The Age of Turbulence], was that half of it is a screed against the need for government regulation—you know, free markets are self-regulating—government doesn’t need to mess with free markets. They’ll correct themselves. And the other half of it is Greenspan’s memoir about all of the times he used the Federal Reserve to bail out failed bets by free markets. Now, how can you have it both ways? Well, if you rule the roost, you can have it any way you want. Fine. But there’s a hypocrisy and there’s a lack of intellectual consistency. Either free markets regulate themselves and the government really shouldn’t do anything—yes, Alan, the Fed is part of the government—or, if you think the markets run the risk of going haywire, you have a duty to regulate on the front end and not just bail them out on the back end. So, I think citizens can raise hell about this and elect people who believe in a managed form of capitalism rather than a predatory form of capitalism.

Message to Joe Trippi: STFU

Well, the votes are not all in, and Joe Trippi is already shooting his mouth off.

"It's really a repudiation...of the Clinton campaign," Trippi just said on MSNBC, interpreting tonight's results.

Shut your damn mouth, asshole.

Oh...Yeah...Wyoming Holds a Republican Caucus

The Wyoming Caucus is this Saturday.

It's been ignored, but since Huckabee has won Iowa, then Romney will go full court press there, and the press and the Republican establishment, which sees Huckabee as a hick from Hope, Arkansas, will make it significant.

If you are not aware of the irony, you're Terry Schiavo.

Then again, maybe Freddie Thompson will try to run there.

There are 2 days, maybe someone will give a speech there.

Iowa Update 9:51 pm

Called for Obama by MSNBC, CNN and NY Times.

The only real race now is the race for 2nd in the Dem caucuses, with Edwards having a slight lead.

So, Once again, my predictions were wrong.

I did say that I thought that Edwards was done when he accepted public financing.

Still...I've got a right to be surprised by Freddie Thompson coming in third.

Paul's surprising showing, he nearly broke two digits, is not a surprise. He has a small number of intensely devoted supporters, which caucuses reward.

Iowa Update: 9:05 pm

Dems 40% reporting
Obama 33%
Edwards 32%
Clinton 32%

Reps called for Huckabee.

Iowa Update: 8:50 pm EST

Dems 25% Reporting
Edwards: 33%
Clinton 32%
Obama 32%

Reps 15% Reporting
Huckabee: 36%
Romney 26%
Thompson 14%
McCain 12%
Paul 11%

Freddie Thompson in 3rd???

Iowa Update 8:30 EST

Turnout seems to be up, at least with Democratic caucuses. Watching MSNBC, and switching to Food Netwrok whenever that fatuous whore Russert is on.

Oliver Willis in Complete 0\/\/N463 (Ownage)

Oliver Willis has the heart rending story of adoptive parents forced to return an adopted child because they are atheists.

This is wrong, this is evil, this...happened in 1970, and the New Jersey Supreme Court overruled the judge.

I put it down to his despair over the upcoming marriage of Jessica Alba.

Homesteading Today - Any unschoolers?

I occasionally look at a bbs that a lot of my friends frequent, and I just found this post on Unschoolers, a variant of home schooling. The misspellings are in red:

As I stated I myself went to public school. The only knowladge I feel i retained was a bit of poetry and how not to get the snot beat out of me by the three mean bullies.

When my first two childern were in school, i started seeing some of the same things in them. one was a slow prcessor(by this I dont mean slow witted, I mean he could not get the work compleated on time so the grades were low because he needed longer. They tested him , his work was perfect but he needed twice as long to do it. He is quiet so it wasnt talking or other distractions.Just a differant form of process. If i didnt have the same issue I might not have picked up on it.), the other a bully of sorts(miss popularity) . I felt I needed to rescue them from such "hell".

Now they are so wounderfull. they both read well. Fell good about who they are. There arent better kids anywhere. My younger childern are learning, all are at differant levels. but it is all natural. They want it ,cant get enough. They are driven by the things they want for them selves. the things they want to do. No my 8 year old does not read at his expected "level". but all the seasoned unschoolers tell me that it will come. it is comeing.
My responsability as mom is to always be aware.if there is a problem fix it. (We have not had any yet) and to provide all the materials, encourage and support.
My elder son is into woodworking.This requires math, reading and fallowing a blueprint at this point. He is learning by doing. He is working through an aprintaceship. His passions also include birds.I cant tell you how many books he has read on this matter. He knows what steps he will have to take to get his falconers licence."All this on his own"

My eldest daughter is into sewing,nitting,and weaving. I cant help her directly here. I want to learn myself.We are looking for someone to teach us. We are trying to muddle our way through books on the matters. She has a dream to open a resturaunt. She is 11-12 tomarrow! She is a real good cook, and cooking for a family of 11 is giveing her lots of practice. (They are responsable for meals twice a week. No help from me.)We are working on shopping, and buddgeting. but her mine goal is to run her home when she has her own family. I want to give her everything I can to prpair her for that goal.

So to sum it all up "unschooling" in learning through life liveing.Much Of what Ive learned i didnt learn untill I was teaching my childern.

Hmmmm...who is teaching them spelling? Is anyone teaching them anything.

The MSM Speaks the Truth

Yes, Jay Carney intends it to be a joke, but he 's really dead serious.

It really is all about them, at for them, so they love McCain because he is accessible, and because he gave them lots of free booze in 2000.

Waiting, and Complaining

Another reason to dislike the caucuses: we can't spend the whole day of the vote calling and emailing and texting each other to find out the latest (deeply flawed) exit poll numbers. Instead, we have to sit around and wait until Iowans finish their dinners and trudge to their local church basement or middle school gymnasium, where, after milling around for a while, they'll declare their presidential preference. We won't have any results until something like 9 pm EST for the Republicans, 10 or 11 pm for the Democrats. And then the results we do get will be accurate! I mean, where's the fun in that?

The thing is, he thinks that he's making a funny, but this is what they really think.

Shorter Broder: Edwards Might Win, and He's a Dirty F@#$ing Hippy

Yep, the "Dean" who has been calling liberals dirty f%$#ing hippies since the 1970s at least, is now saying that Iowa does not really mean anything.

I agree with Matthew Yglesias's assesment, the media is trying to make Iowa irrelevant because they don't want Edwards to win.

The Freddie Thompson Clown Show To Be Ending Soon

It appears that absent a miracle in Iowa, Freddie Thompson will be dropping out and endorsing John McCain.

How I Feel Better xkcd.com

I figure that some of my readers, yeah, I mean both of you might be bumming from the Iowa results. I know that I am.

When I bum, I go to xkcd.com. The guy is a genius,


Click the image to go to the web site.

Japan Recognizes Reality on F-22

We are now seeing reports that the JASDF has given up on the possibility of buying F-22s.

They recognize that it's likely that the line will almost certainly be shut down under an Obama administration, and that there is little to no possibility that the Congress will change the law that forbids the export of the aircraft.

Thoughts on Kenya

I don't know a lot about the place. I've never been there, and I've never been to Africa, and that continent has never figured prominently on my radar.

That being said, the current conflict appears to be driven by tribal rivalries, which in turn are driven by arbitrary colonial boundaries.

While I do not think that the US should be in the position of drawing boundaries in, or creating countries in, Africa (preventing Genocide is a moral imperative, despite the cowardice of GHW Bush, Bill Clinton, GW Bush, and Condoleeza Rice on this).

However, I do not think that the US should support the policy of the African Union that the colonial boundaries are sacrosanct.

Countries and boundaries have been fluid throughout history, and much of the strife in Africa comes from the insistence that barely viable nation states are forced to muddle on.

Kenya is a tribal conflict, exacerbated by corruption, but the corruption is largely driven by tribalism.

Simply put, when the primary consideration is tribal, clean effective government is at best an afterthought, because your guys have to beat their guys, but if the society is largely homogeneous, ethnic baiting becomes far less effective.

Clinton Aggressively Lowering Expectations in Iowa

I've come across about half a dozen reports now of this.

Take it for what you will.

Is America Following the Decline of the Ottoman Empire?

Niall Ferguson of the Financial Times, and surprisingly enough the reactionary right wing Hoover Institution at Stanford, has some interesting parallels between the present day US and the Decline of the Ottoman empire after about 1870.

The Ottoman empire is in bullet points, the US is indented further.

• After the Crimean war, the Ottoman Empire accumulated huge. Between 1855 and 1875, debt increased by a factor of 28.
  
• At the end of 1980 the federal debt was $994 billion, at the end of 2007, it was $9,350 Billion a factor of almost 10 (link).
  
• While some of the spending was for infrastructure, such as theSuez canal, but much was, "squandered on conspicuous consumption, symbolised by Sultan Abdul Mejid’s luxurious Dolmabahçe palace and the spectacular world premiere of Aïda at the Cairo Opera House in 1871."
• Iraq, tax cuts for the wealthy, pork barrel projects, Star Wars, F-22, JSF, Future Combat System.
  
• There was a panic (financial crisis) in 1873 making further financing unavailable to the Ottomans
  
• Sub Prime Mess, 2007.
• In October 1875 the Ottoman government declared bankruptcy.
• Not yet, but it is quite literally the goal of much of the Republican party, like Grover Norquist, who, when not taking terrorist money to lobby, wants to "drown the federal government in a bathtub".
  
• This led to the sale of the Suez Canal to the British, and foreign investors getting the right to other Ottoman revenues.
• Sale of significant shares of major financial institutions to foreign investors and foreign government sovereign wealth funds.
  
• For Egypt, this led to increasing British involvement in governance until eventually Egypt became a de facto colony.
• Not yet here, but you see this with the IMF and World Bank elsewhere in the world.
  

As Ferguson so succinctly puts it, "Debtor empires sooner or later have to do more than just sell shares to satisfy their creditors."

Lawsuit in Mississippi Over Special Election for Senate

Lott resigned on December 18, so as to avoid the new ethics rules in his new lobbying job.

Mississippi law, Mississippi Code 23-15-855, requires that a special election occur within 90 days of a vacancy.

There is an exception, but only if a vacancy occurs in a year there shall be a general state or congressional election. (emphasis mine).

Since Lott could not wait an additional 11 days, he needed to collect his fat fees, the law is clear: a special election has to occur within 90 days.

Of course Haley Barbour, like any good Republican has decided that the law does not apply to him when it is inconvenient, so state Attorney General Jim Hood had taken him to court.

Here is the section of code:

SEC. 23-15-855. Elections to fill vacancies in office of U.S. Senator; interim appointments by Governor.

(1) If a vacancy shall occur in the office of United States Senator from Mississippi by death, resignation or otherwise, the Governor shall, within ten (10) days after receiving official notice of such vacancy, issue his proclamation for an election to be held in the state to elect a Senator to fill such unexpired term as may remain, provided the unexpired term is more than twelve (12) months and the election shall be held within ninety (90) days from the time the proclamation is issued and the returns of such election shall be certified to the Governor in the manner set out above for regular elections, unless the vacancy shall occur in a year that there shall be held a general state or congressional election, in which event the Governor's proclamation shall designate the general election day as the time for electing a Senator, and the vacancy shall be filled by appointment as hereinafter provided.

(2) In case of a vacancy in the office of United States Senator, the Governor may appoint a Senator to fill such vacancy temporarily, and if the United States Senate be in session at the time the vacancy occurs the Governor shall appoint a Senator within ten (10) days after receiving official notice thereof, and the Senator so appointed shall serve until his successor is elected and commissioned as provided for in subsection (1) of this section, provided that such unexpired term as he may be appointed to fill shall be for a longer time than one (1) year, but if for a shorter time than one (1) year he shall serve for the full time of the unexpired term and no special election shall be called by the Governor but his successor shall be elected at the regular election.

SOURCES: Derived from 1972 Code Sec. 23-5-229 [Codes, Hemingway's 1917, Sec. 6835; 1930, Sec. 6279; 1942, Sec. 3308; Laws, 1914, ch. 148] and Sec. 23-5-231 [Codes, Hemingway's 1917, Sec. 6836; 1930, Sec. 6280; 1942, Sec. 3309; Laws, 1914, ch. 148], both Repealed by Laws, 1986, ch. 495, Sec. 335; En, Laws, 1986, ch. 495, Sec. 260, eff from and after January 1, 1987.

Hood's suit is here. (pdf)

A New Nigerian Scam

It seems that the only things that Nigeria makes the news for these days is oil related unrest, various forms of fraud, and one of the highest indices of corruption in the world.

The latest one is a Nigerian firm, Lagos Analysis Corp. (Lancor), suing the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) non profit over a "4 shift keyboard", which allows for better handling of multiple languages.

The kicker is that the OLPC has not shipped any of the keyboards.

Oh, and that one of the principals at Lancor, served time for bank fraud.

Also, it appears that there is no valid patent in the first place.

Go, Groklaw is your friend, and it appears that there is a crooked judge in Nigeria.

Pakistan election delayed until Feb. 18

Bhutto's party, the PPPis upset at the delay. No doubt they realize that this will cut into the sympathy vote, and also the fact is that Bhutto's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, aska "Mr. 10%", is wildly corrupt, and hated for this, and if things calm down, it will weigh down the PPP once the voters get back to the polls.

Wal-Mart Screws the Pooch on Digital Downloads

So, after less than a year, Wal-Mart is abandoning its digital download service.

Its basic features were:

• Just as (if not more) expensive as a DVD.
• A draconian DRM regime which forced you to watch it on your computer and only that computer.
• It only ran on Windows Machines.
• No High Def.
• Which doesn't mean much to me, but for the technophile early adoptors, it does.
• The DRM scheme allowed the studios to revoke your rights to the movies that you downloaded with no recourse.

To quote ars technica:

The message here is very clear: draconian DRM and unrealistic pricing are turning consumers away from legitimate retail channels and giving them a big incentive to adopt underground file sharing.

Criminal Probe of CIA Coverup Started

This is a significant step, though it is my understanding that by assigning someone from Connecticut, it means that they are not technically a special prosecutor.

Obviously the fact that a criminal probe has been opened is significant, and the man assigned, John H. Durham, was the one who successfully investigated and prosecuted the FBI agents who protected James "Whitey" Bulger and Stephen "The Rifleman" Flemmi because they used them as informants.

However, I do not expect him to be given much in the way of freedom over his investigation.

Dodd Refuses to Make 2nd Choice Endorsement

His statement reflects is one of the seamier sides of the Iowa Caucuses, the horse trading that goes on for 2nd choice endorsements.

If a candidate does not get 15% in a precinct caucus, he is declared non-viable, and his supporters have to caucus for someone else, so this can be significant.

Schadenfreude: Scaife Edition

I posted about this in October when the WaPo covered this, and now Vanity Fair has a much more extensive writeup of the Scaife divorce.

So, the man who did his best to get a president impeached for sleeping around is himself a philanderer. He is a hypocrite who deserves any pain he gets.

FWIW, he should let his wife have that damn dog. In a divorce, you try to get out with your balls intact, the dog is a distraction.

Tom Lantos Retiring

The reason given is esophageal cancer, but doubtless the challenge of Jackie Speier in the primary, where she was leading by 30% in the polls, had a lot to do with that too.

It comes down to the fact that he was a very strong hawk on Iraq, and any Iraq Hawk deserves to lose their seat.

FWIW, part of his statement is very disingenuous.

It is only in the United States that a penniless survivor of the Holocaust and a fighter in the anti-Nazi underground could have received an education, raised a family, and had the privilege of serving the last three decades of his life as a Member of Congress. I will never be able to express fully my profoundly felt gratitude to this great country.

Of course, Leon Blum (France), Bruno Kreisky (Austria), both of whom were holocaust survivors and not in America, and, of course, Menachem Begin in Israel were all PMs and Holocaust survivors. (H/t The Reality Based Community)

This kind of ahistorical American exceptionalism is de regeur in US politics, and dangerous, because it leads to things like invading Iraq.

Kids Make You Say the Damnedest Things!

My wife^* says the Shema with my kids every evening after I read to them and tuck them in.

Tonight, Charlie was a little bit wired....In the same way that Bob Novak is a little bit treasonous.

So like always, I shout down to my wife in the computer room, "Honey, the kids are read for prayers."

Then I think a second, and follow up with, "Like Baghdad is ready for the Ice Capades".


^*Love of my life, light of the cosmos, she who must be obeyed, my wife.

Election Update

Let's start with simple not insane (Blago is another post, thank you very much).

It appears that Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet has been chosen the replacement for Ken Salazar in Colorado and we have reports that Governor Paterson is leaning toward Caroline Kennedy.

No opinion on the first bit, but I still think that everyone is going to discover that Kennedy will be the 2nd coming of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend for the 2010 elections, and the Republicans will take that seat.

There is also a difference between winning an election because of your lineage, and getting an appointment because of your lineage, and while I find both distasteful, my Congressman is Paul Sarbanes, I find the latter much more profoundly disturbing.

In Minnesota, which is not crazy central, because that is Springfield, Illinois, we have had some interesting developments:

First is that the 'Phants are threatening a filibuster against a provisional seating of Franken, despite the fact that they did this very same thing for Landrieu in the late 1990s, and they are using the Rod Blagojevich precedent "set" by Harry Reid as justification. (Thanks, Harry).

Also, the Coleman camp has pretty much ceded defeat in the current round, TheHill.com - Coleman team virtually guarantees lawsuit

Sen. Norm Coleman’s (R-Minn.) attorneys said Friday that there will be a legal challenge to the recount in the senator’s reelection race, and conceded that they are almost certainly the ones that will bring it.

“I think that an election challenge here is inevitable,” said Coleman lawyer Fritz Knaak, adding that there is “no doubt” in his mind.

Knaak then acknowledged that the actions of the state canvassing board will likely leave Democrat Al Franken ahead. Franken currently leads by 49 votes out of nearly 3 million cast.

That's a concession that Franken got more votes, and they are going to try for a Bush 2008 move, because unlike Florida, Minnesota is doing this in an honest way.

In the mean time, Coleman is filing, or threatening to file, lawsuits at the drop of a hat, calling the process "Invalid And Unreliable," unless they include about 650 additional ballots from Coleman strongholds. See also here and here.

The Minnesota Supreme Court has declined to take action on at least one of Coleman's claims, though they have made it clear that this is because it's premature, and not on the merits of the case, so that can hear it later.

The assessment at TPM Election Central, that this would likely prevent a resolution for weeks or months, is accurate, but that is a feature, not a bug, for the 'Phants.

Romney: Bush Mismanaged War

Well, well, well, it looks like Romney is saying that Bush mismanaged the Iraq war, when just 2 weeks ago, he was calling Huckabee a traitor for saying the same thing.

This is Romney as businessman. He's trying to do what it takes to close the deal, in this case, flip-flopping.

Edwards Calls for Complete Pullout of Iraq

Edwards calls for a complete pullout, including training troops.

He's right. The Iraqis already know the basics of combat, the finer points could be taught outside of the country to those select few who need this information, and the US military, particularly the army is hostile to the idea of teaching foreigners about civil society.

They see their role as engaging the enemy in the battle space, and destroying them, and that any peacekeeping or nation building is antithetical to their mission.

There is nothing to indicate any real rapproachment amongst the Iraqi factions, and our presence simply delays, and makes more bloody, any eventual resolution.

Having any number of trainers there entails logistics and security that would keep us militarily engage in Iraq for a very long time.

The Surge is Working!!!

A string of suicide bombings in has hit Iraq: (see also here)

• On Tuesday, a suicide bombing killed 36 and wounded at least 35 others in Baghdad's Zayouna (the worst attack since August)
• A female suicide bomber attacked a checkpoint of neighbourhood patrol volunteers Wednesday morning in Baquba, the capital of Diyala province, reports Reuters. The attack killed 10
• The abduction and killing of five relatives on Tuesday morning in Jalawla, one of the five killed was a policeman.
• fighters from Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia kidnapped a farmer and killed his son in Dhuluiya, and stole 200 of the farmer’s sheep. (not going with the obvious comment)
  
• The severed head of a member of an called Awakening Council, the Sunni Militias created and armed by David Petraeus was found north of Muqdadiya.
• Gunmen killed three people in a village 40 miles south of Kirkuk.

We need to get out sooner, rather than later. We are doing no good there.

Netscape Browser to Die February 1

As if it hadn't really been dead for nearly 10 years now.

It was the first browser I used, and I now use Firefox, which is its bastard child, but I have no sorrow over this news.

While some of their problems were created by Microflaccid's monopolistic practices, the fact that it was something like three years between Netscape 4.x and Netscape 6.x.

I'll shed no tears, but instead send you to JWZ's resignation letter from Netscape Communications.

Heads of the 911 Commission Claim That the CIA Deliberately Obstructed Their Investigation

The money quote is, "As a legal matter, it is not up to us to examine the C.I.A.’s failure to disclose the existence of these tapes. That is for others. What we do know is that government officials decided not to inform a lawfully constituted body, created by Congress and the president, to investigate one the greatest tragedies to confront this country. We call that obstruction.

Tom Kean and Lee Hamilton have just made a specific allegation of a crime, obstructing a federal investigation.

There are people in the Bush Administration, and among the professional staff in the intelligence agencies, who

More Obama Asshattery

This time, he appears to be going after Gore and Kerry.

In a speech this afternoon in central Iowa, Barack Obama seems to have widened his criticism of the politics of the past to encompass not only Hillary Clinton but John Kerry and Nobel Laureate Al Gore. Making an argument for his electability, Obama said, "I don't want to go into the next election starting off with half the country already not wanting to vote for Democrats -- we've done that in 2004, 2000," according to a person at the event.

The first comment to the post says it very well, "His arrogance and sense of entitlement are not just inaccurate, his remarks are insulting and stupid."(emphasis mine)

I would add that Al Gore got more votes than George Bush, and the problem with both campaigns is that they were unwilling to call out George W. Bush specifically, and the Republicans generally for their incompetence and corruption.

You also have Barack Obama going after Labor Unions political involvement:

And top union officials who support Obama’s rivals are in turn accusing the Illinois Democrat, who once sought their endorsements, of trying to damage labor’s political role. “I’m taken aback that somebody like Obama would think that Oprah Winfrey has a greater right to participate in the political process than the 4 million people I represent,” Edward J. McElroy, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, which has spent $799,619 on New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s behalf, said, referring to the television host’s high-profile support for Obama. “It’s sour grapes. It sounds just like the charges the Republicans make.”

It appears that there is no Democratic constituency that he is unwilling to "Sistah Soljah".

Economic Update

The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index had declined for the first time in 11 months. Predictions had placed it at 50.5, rather slow growth, but it came in at 47.7, on drops in orders and production, and we have the same thing happening worldwide, with the Global manufacturing PMI falling to a 4½ year low, which seems to indicate that the rest of the world has not "decoupled" from the US economy.

Singapore's economy is taking a hit, because Americans are no longer able to buy their stuff.

Then we have the other Mecca of Anglo-Saxon capitalism going through the same real-estate crisis that is hitting in the US

The latest figures indicate that 23 per cent of people – 9.5 million adults – were finding their current level of debt "unmanageable". Although the Bank of England cut the base rate of interest last month, an estimated 1.4 million people will still have to pay more for their home loans when their fixed-rate deals come to an end this year, costing an extra £150 to £250 a month.

Sounds familiar.

Merrill Lynch has sold itself for some more cash, which seems to indicates taht there are some more losses, probably significant ones, that have not yet found their way to the balance sheets and quarterly reports.

In further banking news, General Electric and the Blackstone Group had to backoff of a buyout of PHH, a mortgage and auto-leasing company, because their financing fell through.

Finally, we have reports that dollar-based assets held by the world's national banks have fallen to a record low. There is not yet a stampede to the door, but people are definitely standing up and stretching their legs.

The data indicated that of the $3.8 trillion in allocated reserves, about 63.8 percent was held in U.S. dollars, down from 65 percent at the end of the second quarter this year.

Refugees Fleeing To Afghanistan???

This can't be good.

The fact that anyone would flee to Afghanistan, as apparently several hundred Pakistani families have, indicates that things are going very very wrong there.

They are fleeing increased conflict between Pakistani militants and the military.

100

Oil broke $100/bbl today.

To my mind, this less of an increase in the price of oil than it is a decline in the value of the dollar (the linked article mentions Fed rates cuts contributing to the price rise).

FWIW, oil appears to be near or at the all time highs, adjusted for inflation of the early 1980s.

I'm Reall, Really, Really, Really Dull: New Years Edition

It happens when you have kids.

The kids were determined to stay up to midnight, and in fact were determined to watch the sun rise.

So, they watched Nick, which had a countdown timer on screen, while I finished assembling the drawers of Sharon's^* new desk while she worked upstairs on her laptop on some reports for clients.

Unfortunately, I did not have the right screws, but a quick run to Target, actually two runs, I needed two different sizes of screws, fixed that.

At one point, she and the kids went out for ice cream, but I wasn't in the mood, so I kept up work on the desk.

After I got the desk together, I rearranged the furniture, found a network cable, and set up the printer.

There were a number of fits and starts regarding getting the network to recognize the printer, and half way through, it was almost midnight, so I took a break, and went to the TV with the kids, and called Sharon^* down.

I passed out the blowout horns (see picture below), and changed from Nick to one of the networks to see the ball drop in Times square.
After that, we switched to a local station to see the fireworks display on the inner harbor.

Thankfully, the kids were ready for bed and had no interest in seeing the sun rise any more, so we put them to bed, and about an hour after that, the printer was up and running as a network node.

For new years day, we went to the Baltimore Society of Model Engineers open house show, and looked at their intricate O and HO scale layouts.

It was amusing listening to a modeler talk about how he had just purchased a new engine, and that he needed to "dirty it up".

^*Love of my life, light of the cosmos, she who must be obeyed, my wife.

You Think that Krugman is Shrill????

Many critics of the Bush Administration have been accused of shrillness.

Obviously I disagree, though some of my readers, particularly the more recent ones, may disagree.

That being said, this New York Times editorial on the death John C. Breckinridge (it was an error, and about 10 years premature) dated 7 December 1863 makes us all sound like Timothy Leary.

Spinal Tap Drummer Dies in Explosion

Me bad. It wasn't Spinal Tap's drummer. It was al Qaeda'snumber three guy, who just got blown up...again....

More Peculiarities in Bhutto Assassination

First, we have reports that the Pakistani police prevented an autopsy, and now we have reports that Bhutto was to hand over evidence of vote rigging to US lawmakers on the day of her death.

"Where an opposing candidate is strong in an area, they [supporters of President Pervez Musharraf ] have planned to create a conflict at the polling station, even killing people if necessary, to stop polls at least three to four hours," the document says.

The report also accused the government of planning to tamper with ballots and voter lists, intimidate opposition candidates and misuse U.S.-made equipment to monitor communications of opponents.

What's that phrase, "Will no one rid me of that troublesome priest?"

Musharraf definitely bears some of the responsibility for her death, as they clearly skimped on security in an attempt to reign in her campaigning, but it is increasingly looking as if his responsibility is broader and deeper.

The Definitive Word on Partisan "Gridlock"

Greg Seargant nails it when he says, "The way to reduce "Partisan Gridlock" is to further weaken the GOP.

....

These questions are kind of relevant. Partisan gridlock happens because people -- and by extension, political parties -- disagree about stuff. One party wants to do one thing on a particular issue. Another party says No. The first party offers a few concessions. The second party still says No. That's where "partisan gridlock" comes from -- underlying disagreement on issues -- and in our current case, the fault for our "partisan gridlock" isn't equally distributed between the two parties. Rather, it's almost exclusively the fault of the Republicans.

You aren't allowed to say this, but it's true. If you don't believe me, ask the bipartisan Iraq Study Group. They proposed a bunch of solutions to Iraq. The Democrats largely embraced these solutions. The Republicans, by contrast, didn't. ....

In fact, I would argue that over the past 30 years, the Republican party has lost any interest in governing. Instead, what we have is a desire for power and wealth.

I went to school at UMass with former Tom Delay Deputy Chief of Staff, and now a convicted member of Abrahmoff's "entourage", Tony Rudy.

I served in the SGA Senate with him with him, and we were both nominally "Conservatives" in that body^*, and we got along fairly well, he was the first to shake my hand when Nummo News^†, the Black Student newspaper, condemned me on its front page for calling for their sanctions as a result of illegal electioneering in the SGA presidential race. We got along, and we sometimes traded private snarky comments during debates.

This has given me some insight into Tony's feelings on governance, and considering the positions that he has held since UMass, it is not unreasonable to extend those views to a significant portion of the Republican party.

Republicans, with the qualifiers listed above, believe government to be evil. If a government program exists, it is a bad thing^™. If it is successful it is even more evil, because it weakens our morality^‡ and compromises out strength.

When you come to government service with this philosophy, there are only two reasons for that service, money and power.

This makes Republican obstructionism fairly easy. There is no other goal to be accomplished.

It's why, at least for now, reaching across the aisle is a waste of time. There are no Everett Dirksens in the current Republican Party leadership.

^*It's not that I had an epiphany and became a liberal. It's that the left wing of the SGA Senate were all the "US Out of North America" crowd.
^†Seriously, I think that half the Senate shook my hands before someone told me why....Strange political experience.
^‡Yes, it does seem like General Jack D. Ripper's "Purity of Essence" from Dr. Strangelove.

For Next 40 Years

Mention Ponnuru kerfuffle.

End Result, tripled my (still meager) readership.

I Was Completely and Totally Wrong

Once again, we find that my powers of prognostication fall far short.

On 7 November, I predicted that the Dollar would drop below $1.50:€1.00, and that oil would exceed $100/bbl.

Neither have happened, though they are close, that only counts in horse shoes. I was wrong.

Bush's Man in Afghanistan Backs Surrender

This is what happens when you take your eye off the ball, and go after someone who was a threat to no one but his own citizens.

KABUL, Afghanistan - The United States supports reconciliation talks with Taliban fighters

Would you like your capitulation with, or without mandatory Burkhas?

More Proof that Obams Will Be Disasterous Down Ticket

Yes, once again, Barack Obama is doing his best to validate Republican talking points. This time, he's going after Edwards for being a "trial lawyer" while he did community activism.

There is a lot of talk about how Hillary mightt be a problem for people running for lower office, but having a presidential candidate who is running on Republican talking points is far, far worse.

Obama is the wanker of the day.

Edwards response is this tape from one of his clients, the mother of the little girl whose guts were literally sucked out by a faulty wading pool drain.

Not only is he going after a lawyer who has done heroic things, he is going after the whole concept of people protecting themselve from greedy corporations with these heroic lawyers.




Barak Obama can kiss my shiny metal ass.

FWIW, Molly Ivors comes to the same conclusion.

Random Thoughts On the Working Experience

My boss looks like Patrick Stewart. Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster doesn’t use the phrase "Make it so".

On a telecom with the UK, I realized that I love how Scotsmen say "Schedule" (shed-yule), "Buffer" (sort of boofferr), and does (dooze).

The worst part about meetings is that they are like Sominex^® to me. How do you stay awake, particularly after lunch. What I do to stay awake is to take two sets of notes one for the meeting, and one for the pretty much anything that pops into my head. It keeps me engaged enough to keep the old eyes open.

I showed up for work early one morning, and a guy out here for a week from the west coast was already here.....Talk about an early bird…..It's 3 hours earlier for his circadian rhythm.

Every Thursday, a bunch of get chicken and potato wedges from the Amish Market...Yum.

Home Prices Sliding

This Wall Street Journal article makes a slight increase in home salse its lead, but it misses the bigger picture:

The median price of a previously owned home fell 3.3% to $210,200 in November from $217,300 in November 2006.

Sales up slightly, but prices down...both an artifact of potential house sellers being willing to cut prices. There are a lot of people out there who are waiting to sell homes, and believe that this downturn will be short term, and as more and more people see the falling prices as a longer term trend, they will move to sell sooner.

I've never seen a real home price drop that (not month to month, but a real one) that lasted less than 4-5 years. This one has even farther to go.